681
FXUS61 KAKQ 012325
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
725 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday as high
pressure builds over the region. Rain chances return this
weekend as a series of disturbances impact the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 725 PM EDT Wednesday...

Showers and isolated thunderstorms across far SE VA and
northeast NC are quickly diminishing with loss of heating, and
as seabreeze/outflow boundary pushes farther inland this
evening. Cooler tonight, with areas of shallow ground fog
expected across the eastern shore, Hampton Roads/NE NC.
Additional more patchy fog is possible in and south of the RIC
metro/Tri-cities area late tonight/early Thu morning. Overnight
lows mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Previous discussion follows...

As of 325 PM EDT Wednesday...

GOES water vapor channels depict an upper low spinning
immediately offshore of the Outer Banks. Meanwhile, a weak cold
front is sliding south across southern VA and NE NC. This
combination has triggered isolated to scattered showers across far
southern VA, and scattered showers/tstms across NE NC. Otherwise,
partly to mostly sunny NW to variably to mostly cloudy SE.
Temperatures are mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and locally
cooler along the coast with onshore flow. Any lingering
showers/tstms will diminish and drop S of the local area late this
afternoon/early this evening as the front pushes S of the Albemarle
Sound. Becoming mostly clear this evening, with patchy fog possible
later tonight, especially E of the I-95 corridor. Forecast lows are
mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EDT Wednesday...

Dry weather is expected Thursday and Friday as the upper ridge
builds back over the Eastern US. After some early morning fog,
Thursday will feature a mostly sunny sky and high temperatures
in the mid to upper 80s for inland locations (may push 90
degrees in a few typically warmer spots). Closer to the coast,
highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s with an onshore
component to the wind. Mild/dry conditions Thursday night with
lows around 60 (mid to upper 50s Eastern Shore).

High pressure builds SSE over New England Friday, which will
push a backdoor cold front south along the Eastern
Shore/Chesapeake Bay. Meanwhile, our next area of low pressure
takes shape and begins to approach from the W. As a result of
the backdoor front, temperatures will vary widely from only the
mid 60s to lower 70s (perhaps only around 60F/lower 60s Maryland
Atlantic beaches) across the MD/VA Eastern Shore and locations
along the Chesapeake Bay to the mid to upper 80s further inland.
High temperatures will ultimately depend on how far/how quick
the front pushes inland with guidance still all over the place,
but could certainly see highs trend cooler (especially east).
Otherwise, increasing cloud cover by Friday afternoon and
evening with the system approaching from the west. Rain chances
increase across western portions of the forecast area late
Friday evening into Friday night. Low temperatures Friday night
range from around 50F NE to around 60F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Wednesday...

Unsettled conditions are expected this weekend as a series of
disturbances cross the area. A frontal boundary, along with
areas of low pressure along it will affect the region Saturday
into Sunday night, bringing a good chance of showers and a few
tstms (tstms primarily well inland) across the entire area.
Clouds, rain, and an onshore wind will keep temperatures cooler
Saturday and Sunday. Highs Saturday will range from the mid to
upper 60s NE, to the mid to upper 70s SSW. Highs Sunday will
generally be in the 70s. Increasingly warmer Monday and Tuesday,
but there will be slight to small chances for mainly aftn/early
evening showers or tstms, due to the proximity of a trough.
Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s Monday, and in the
upper 70s to mid 80s Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 725 PM Wednesday...

A weak frontal boundary is south of the local area to begin the
00z TAF period. A secondary seabreeze/outflow boundary was
analyzed pushing inland from convection earlier this evening.
Winds are light out of the E-SE to begin the period, and become
light/variable overnight. Some patchy IFR ground fog is
possible late tonight/early Thursday morning, with some low
stratus possible especially toward the MD coast around the KSBY
terminal. Mostly clear/sunny w/ VFR conditions Thursday with
winds becoming SSW 5-10kt.

Outlook: Primarily dry/VFR conditions are expected Thursday
night through Friday, although some sub-VFR conditions are
possible once again along the coast early Friday as another
backdoor cold front slides through the area. There is chance for
showers and a few tstms and potentially sub-VFR conditions from
late Friday night through Sunday with the next front, with
diminishing shower/tstm chances by Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions expected through at least early Friday.

- Marginal SCA-level northeast winds and seas are possible behind a
backdoor cold front Friday into Saturday.

Mainly quiet weather across the marine area this afternoon. One
exception is over NE NC where scattered thunderstorms have
developed in associated w/ a weakening front. Expect these
storms to gradually drop S into this evening. While severe wx is
not expected, frequent lightning and gusty winds of 30-35 kt
are possible. These storms should stay confined to the Currituck
Sound and coastal waters S of the NC/VA border. Otherwise,
winds are northerly and rather light (10 kt or less) behind the
front. Seas are running 2-3 ft w/ waves 1 ft or less in the
Chesapeake Bay. Winds become S/SSW tonight into Thursday with
high pressure moving offshore. A backdoor cold front is expected
to move in from the NE Friday morning, turning the flow onshore
through most of Friday and Saturday. Models now agree on a
period of 15-20 kt winds for most of the marine area initially
behind the front Fri aftn and then possibly again Sat aftn as
the pressure gradient re-tightens. Wind probabilities have
increased during this period, especially over the ocean, and a
marginal small craft advisory may eventually be needed. Seas
could also inch up to 3-5 ft during this period. Waves in the
Chesapeake Bay will average 2-3 ft. High pressure situates
offshore again later Sun into Mon w/ southerly winds returning.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJB/AJZ
LONG TERM...AJB/AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ/MAM
MARINE...SW