Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240210 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1010 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region later today through tonight. Dry weather is expected Thursday and Friday under the influence of high pressure. Low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will gradually bring a return of moisture for the upcoming weekend, especially by Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1000 PM EDT Wednesday... The cold front continues to make progress and is near the Roanoke River as of 1000 pm. There is still some isolated convection over the s-central VA Piedmont into interior NE NC. This activity should decay prior to midnight as the front pushed S. Temperatures across the N have dropped into the upper 60s as drier air has arrived, with low/mid 70s farther S. High pressure will build in from the N overnight. The sky will clear and temperatures should drop into the upper 50s north and mid 60s south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 430 PM EDT Wednesday... High pressure will be over the region from Thursday through Friday before sliding off the coast Friday evening. This will bring a period of dry weather. Initially expect to see some cooler conditions with highs in the low to mid 80s on Thursday and a little increase in temps on Friday to the mid to upper 80s. The MAV guidance looks a little too warm for the two days given the northerly flow on Thursday and the slow turn to the southeast/south on Friday. So have leaned a toward the slightly cooler MET Numbers for highs. On Thursday night with the lower dewpoints and the calm conditions should get a decent radiative cooling night and so kept previous thinking of slightly cooler readings in the mid to upper 50s. Guidance did trend that direction as well, but is still a little warmer than the current forecast. By Friday night into Saturday, will see the southerly flow begin to bring more moisture back to the region as the surface high slides off the coast and the deep tropical moisture feed that is in place from the West Caribbean gets pulled farther north. Have kept the Friday night period dry as there does not appear to be much in the way of a lifting mechanism to interact with the increasing moisture. But did increase the sky cover...mainly in the western half of the CWA and keep a much warmer night with lows in the 60s. On Saturday did begin to introduce some showers again mainly in the west were the southeasterly flow will get a little orographic lift along with the day time heating to generate some showers in the Piedmont counties. The GFS tries to spin up a small complex in GA Friday night and lift it over the area on Saturday, but that feature looks a little too much like some convective feedback and the ECMWF and the NAM are not nearly as excited about the showers so kept things more diurnally driven and with lighter amounts for now. But did drop the highs back a few degrees from Friday due to the extra clouds around. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday... Expect diurnally driven rain chances (highest during afternoon/evening) throughout the extended period. Low pressure develops in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and slowly moves N/NE through mid-late next week. This will allow tropical moisture to stream northward toward the region through at least next Wednesday. Showers/tstms start to diminish late Saturday evening but re-develop Sunday afternoon. 23/12z GFS/CMC are hinting that a more organized area of rain will move into SE VA/NE NC Monday morning and last throughout the day. However, the latest 12z ECMWF keeps this area of rain south of the VA/NC border on Monday. For most of central VA (as well as the MD Eastern Shore), expect scattered afternoon showers/tstms on Memorial Day. Went ahead and introduced likely PoPs in the far southeastern CWA on Monday with chance PoPs elsewhere. Scattered showers/tstms will likely continue for the remainder of the extended period, with perhaps lesser coverage in the northern third of the CWA. Have maintained chance PoPs for most of the CWA from Tue-Thu AM with some slight chc PoPs north. Highs in the mid-upper 80s on Sunday/low 80s in coastal areas. Slightly cooler with highs around 80 throughout the CWA on Monday. Temperatures warm back up to the mid 80s (low 80s in coastal areas) on Tuesday-Wednesday. Lows in the upper 60s- lower 70s throughout the extended period. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday... The cold front has passed through all terminals except ECG (winds are still out of the S). Expect winds to switch to the N/NE at ECG by 03z as the front drops south through NE NC. The main line of t-storms has moved south of ECG, but kept VCSH in the TAF through 02z due to a few lingering showers in the area. Drier air will push south behind the front this evening through tonight. Thus, am expecting VFR (mainly SKC) conditions at all terminals through the 00z TAF period. Fog will not be an issue tonight with the northerly flow and drier air. Winds turn to the E by Thursday evening, but wind speeds should remain 10 kt or less throughout the day. OUTLOOK...Quiet conditions/no flight restrictions Thu/Fri with high pressure in place and mostly sunny/clear skies. Expect moisture to increase for the upcoming weekend with scattered showers/t-storms possible by Sat afternoon/evening. The showers/t-storms will become more numerous on Sunday-Monday with potential flight restrictions. && .MARINE... As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday... No flags expected as winds remain below SCA criteria into the weekend. A cold front pushes south of the waters tonight. Little if any CAA noted despite a wind shift to the north then northeast Thurs. High pressure to the north shifts east allowing winds to become east then southeast Fri. Speeds below 15 kts through this period. Seas 2-3 feet with waves 1-2 ft. Return southerly flow increases a bit this weekend (10-15 kts). Flow remains out of the south early next week, but will have to watch for any system coming up from the south. Given uncertainty attm, kept winds below SCA levels. Bumped up seas 3-4 ft for now. && .HYDROLOGY...
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As of 1000 PM EDT Wednesday... A flood warning continues for the Appomattox River basin. Mattoax looks to have crested at 24.8 ft early this morning, just below moderate flood threshold (25 ft). The river level will slowly drop through tonight, dropping below flood stage Wednesday evening. A flood warning has been issued for the Nottoway River at Sebrell as the river should crest just above minor stage. Additional flood warnings continue for portions of the Mattaponi river and for Kerr Lake. The flood warning for the Chickahominy River has been discontinued. See FLWAKQ or FLSAKQ for more details.
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&& .CLIMATE... As of 215 AM EDT Wednesday... * RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/22 is 10.22" which now ranks as the wettest May on record. (breaking the old record of 9.79" in 2016). (Precipitation records date back to 1880). * SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/22 is 8.63" which already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record (wettest is 10.38" in 1948). (Precipitation records date back to 1906). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ESS NEAR TERM...AJZ/ESS SHORT TERM...ESS LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...ERI/ESS MARINE...MPR HYDROLOGY...AKQ CLIMATE...AKQ

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