Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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248 FXUS61 KAKQ 220546 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 146 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracks northeast and away from the area this morning. High pressure to the west will build into the area this afternoon through Friday. Low pressure moves east from the Mississippi Valley Saturday and tracks through the Carolinas Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Light snow continues across the ern shore erly as of 06Z, however most of the accumulating snow has ended. Thus elected to let the winter storm warning expire at midnight. Otw, just can`t get rid of the low level moisture with sct flurries/drizzle continuing across most of the forecast area erly this morning. Models show just abt everything ends before 12Z with skies slowly clrg west to east after daybreak. Lows upr 20s-lwr 30s excpt mid 30s cstl areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... The flow aloft remains NW Thursday and Friday as an upper trough persists over Atlantic Canada. Meanwhile, Surface high pressure builds across the Southeast Conus. A shortwave trough pushes across the Carolinas Thursday with another shortwave trough clipping the nrn Mid-Atlantic Friday. This will result in variably cloudy conditions Thursday and Friday, with mainly mostly clear conditions Thursday night. This will keep temperatures well below normal for late March. Highs Thursday range from the mid to upper 40s N to around 50 F to the lower 50s over srn VA and NE NC (possibly cooler over N-central VA, the Nrn Neck, and MD Ern Shore with melting snow). Lows Thursday night range from the mid 20s to low 30s, with highs Friday in the mid-upper 40s N to lower 50s S. A 1040mb surface high in vicinity of Hudson Bay will build into the Mid-Atlantic Saturday night. This will allow lows to once again fall into the mid 20s NW to low 30s SE under a mostly clear sky. The high remain anchored well N of the region Saturday. One shortwave trough is progged to drop across New England Saturday, as another trough pushes through the mid-Mississippi Valley toward the Tennessee Valley. High temperatures will be tricky Saturday as statistical guidance supports highs in the mid 40s to around 50, while low-level thicknesses support highs in the low/mid 40s. Have opted to go with highs in the mid 40s W where clouds should increase and thicken quicker, and upper 40s to near 50F E. The 21/12z ECMWF is slower than the NAM/GFS and have followed closer to the ECMWF. Likely PoPs arrive in the far SW counties by aftn, bordered by 20-40% PoPs from the NW Piedmont through S-central VA and interior NE NC. Temperatures potentially fall into the upper 30s to low 40s once pcpn arrives with dewpoints in the mid/upper 20s. Therefore, a rain/snow (possibly sleet) mix has been included. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Conditions averaging below normal through the extended forecast period...though moderation in temperatures likely by mid next week. Deep/anomalous trough aloft hangs near/just off the E coast Sat night into Tue before shifting E and a high amplitude upper level ridge builds into the region. Lo pres exits off the NC coast by late Sat night...then hi pres gradually builds S from SE Canada Sun-Tue. Used a blend of the GFS/ECMWF/WPC wrt pcpn timing Sat night (RA and/or SN winding down central/S and SE)...then dry and clearing wx for much of Sun through Tue. By Wed...lo pres to track through the Great Lakes states pushing some moisture into the mid-Atlantic region. Brought increasing clouds into the local area Wed...but left PoPs aob 10%. Lows Sat night from around 30F NNW to the m-u30s along coastal SE VA- NE NC. Highs Sun in the l-m40s (gusty NNE winds...esp at the coast will make it feeling colder). Lows Sun night in the u20s W to the m- u30s at the coast. Highs Mon in the m40s at the coast...u40s-around 50F inland. Lows Mon night in the u20s W to the m-u30s at the coast. Highs Tue in the u40s at the coast to the m50s inland. Highs Wed in the u40s-l50s at the coast to the 60-65F inland. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Wrap around moisture combined with upr level moisture continues the MVFR/IFR CIGS with SCT rain/snow shwrs across the local area except light snow at SBY erly this morning. High res data suggests these conditions continue through abt 08Z inland and abt 10Z along the eastern shore. Otw, lower levels are expected to dry out across the Piedmont with MVFR CIGS giving way to clrg skies by 12Z. Coastal TAF sites will take longer to clr as high prs builds in from the west. VFR conditions expected thru the rest of the forecast period. Outlook: Low pressure approaches from the W late Saturday, with a period of sub-VFR flying conditions Saturday night into Sunday in both rain and snow. High pressure returns Monday. && .MARINE... Have cancelled the Gale warning for the two nrn coastal zns and now have a SCA for these zns thru 7 am Fri. Low pressure off the nrn Mid Atlc coast will track NE off the NJ and New England coasts tonight into Thu. Low pressure moves away toward/into the nrn Atlc late Thu thru Fri. NW winds 15 to 25 kt will result in SCA`s in effect for all the waters thru at least Thu aftn, with seas remaining up near 5 ft over the coastal waters into Fri morning. High pressure finally builds into and over the area for later Fri into Sat morning, before another low pressure system impacts the waters late Sat into Sun morning. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect along the ocean side of the Lower Eastern Shore and Bay side of the VA Eastern Shore, as well as areas of the Tidewater up through the Peninsula and Middle Peninsula. Increased swell energy in the wake of a series of developing low pressure areas will allow for elevated water levels and the potential for some minor flooding. Guidance continues to indicate tide levels of 1 to 2 feet above normal. Issued coastal flood statements for a few other areas where levels are expected to be within a half foot of minor flooding. && .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ has returned to service after its first Service Life Extension Project upgrade was completed. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ024-025. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ084>086-093-095>097-523>525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633- 635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...MPR MARINE...TMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.