Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 200615 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 215 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Rain comes to an end along the coast this evening. Somewhat drier air arrives Sunday. There will be another chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday. A period of dry weather looks promising by Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1020 PM EDT Saturday... The anticipated breakdown of the pattern responsible for this recent widespread RA event is finally decaying as the flow aloft has become stronger from the SSW and the low-level boundary has shifted N. Widespread rain has dissipated, with only isolated showers across the ern third of the area. However, continued excessive runoff (and flooding) remain a high threat even w/o additional rainfall. See the hydro section below for more details. Weakening trough aloft will be tracking across the FA (starting) later tonight...potentially w/ ISOLD pcpn but mainly just keeping cloudiness in place. Lows in the u60s-around 70F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Saturday... Trough aloft exits early Sun morning. Sun will be warm and moderately humid w/ VRB clouds-partly sunny conditions. Will have PoPs 20-30% (highest E of I 95 and primarily for afternoon/eve SHRAS/tstms). Highs in the m-u80s...except l80s at the beaches. By Mon...with flow aloft shifting from the W to the WSW...expecting increasing moisture ahead of the next approaching systems from the S and W. Partly sunny-mostly cloudy w/ PoPs by afternoon rising to 30-50% inland in the afternoon...10-30% toward the ern shore. SPC has marginal risk SVR for N and central areas for possible strong stms. Highs in the 70s at the coast to the m80s inland. Warm front pulls N of the region Mon night (w/ possible SCT SHRAS-tstms)...then sfc hi pres off the SE CONUS coast remains in control Tue. Lo pres and its accompanying cold front tracks through the Midwest- OH Valley Tue. VRB clouds-partly sunny Tue w/ mainly diurnal PoPs (20-40%) (Tue) ahead of that system. Lows Mon night in the l60s on the lower MD ern shore to the m-u60s elsewhere. Highs Tue from the m-u70s at the coast to 80-85F inland. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 240 PM EDT Saturday... A respite from the wet wx pattern suggested by most extended models for mid-late in the upcoming week. Just enough of a NW flow aloft suggests that drying will take place after Wed and last into next weekend. Lo pres passing by N of the region Tue night-Wed will push a cold front (possibly accompanied by SHRAS/tstms) E and S of the local area. Hi pres is then expected to build into the region for Thu-Fri. By next Sat...a return flow from the SSW to set up potentially resulting in increasing moisture/gradual rise in PoPs. Lows Tue night in the m-u60s. Highs Wed in the 70s-around 80F at the coast to the m80s inland. Lows Wed night in the l-m60s. Highs Thu from the u70s-m80s. Lows Thu night mainly 60-65F. Highs Fri 80-85F...70s at the immediate coast. Highs Sat in the m-u80s inland...u70s-l80s at the coast. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 200 AM EDT Sunday... The more widespread showers are mainly off to the west of area early this morning, but some spotty/widely scattered showers will move through far SE VA/NE NC through 09Z and have VCSH and tempo groups for SHRA and MVFR flight restrictions at KORF/KECG. S/SW winds avg around 10 kt through this morning and this should keep fog from developing. MVFR cigs will prevail at most terminals, with a period of IFR possible at RIC/SBY/PHF (08-14z). Cigs gradually lift later this morning through early aftn, and potentially scatter out inland later in the aftn. A SW of 8-12kt is expected, with occasional gusts to 20kt possible. There is a 20-30% chc of showers/tstms Sunday aftn, mainly towards the coast. A chc of aftn/evening showers/tstms will continue Monday through Wednesday. A moist airmass will remain over the region and a potential will exist for patchy early morning fog and/or stratus. High pressure may build in from the N by Thursday.
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&& .MARINE... As of 810 PM EDT Saturday... S winds at 10-15 kt this evening will become SW late tonight through Sunday evening. Seas 3-4 ft, except 4-5 ft north of Parramore Island where an SCA is in effect. Waves 1-2 ft. Another frontal boundary will drop into northern portions of the area late Sunday night- Monday AM, but NE winds will remain around 10 kt over the northern waters. Thus, am expecting seas to remain at or below 4 ft on Monday, with waves from 1-2 ft. The frontal boundary lifts back north of the region Monday night-Tuesday AM, with 10-15 kt SW winds expected through Wednesday before another frontal boundary passes through the region Wed PM-Thurs. Seas are expected to be around 2-4 ft from Tue-Fri, with waves of 1-2 ft. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 810 PM EDT Saturday... Flood warnings continue for the James and Appomattox River basins. Warnings also continue for the Meherrin and Nottoway rivers as well as portions of the Chowan Basin. Additional flood warnings have also been issued for the Chickahominy, South Anna and Mattaponi rivers, as well as the Pocomoke River in MD. See FLWAKQ or FLSAKQ for more details. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 810 PM EDT Saturday... A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for areas adjacent to the Potomac River on the Northern Neck and also for the Chesapeake Bay side of the lower MD Eastern Shore for Sunday morning`s high tide cycle. Water levels will run 1-1.5 ft above normal, resulting in minor tidal flooding at Lewisetta, Bishops Head and Cambridge. && .CLIMATE...
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As of 200 AM EDT Sunday... * RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/19 is now 8.84" (already ranks as 5th wettest May on record). (precipitation records date back to 1880) * SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/19 is now 8.51" (already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record). (precipitation records date back to 1906)
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ075- 077. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJZ/LKB MARINE...ERI/TMG HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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