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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 110600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
200 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will bring widespread showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night. A breezy south wind is expected ahead of the front
Thursday, with the wind shifting to west and remaining breezy
Friday and Saturday behind the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Wednesday...

Late this evening, low pressure was centered over LA. Meanwhile,
sfc high pressure was centered well off the SE coast. A few
isolated light showers were located over NE portions of the
region. Otherwise, it was partly cloudy to cloudy with temps
ranging through the 60s. It should remain dry overnight into
early Thu morning, with lows in the mid 50s to near 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Becoming breezy Thu into Thu night ahead of an approaching cold
front, especially along the coast.

2) Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms arrive Thu afternoon
into Thu night as the cold front crosses the region.

3) Continued breezy Fri and Sat with scattered afternoon showers
(and isolated storms) as an upper level trough tracks across the
area.

A potent upper level low pivots across the Deep South tonight and
then fills and lift NE toward the Ohio Valley Thursday. Meanwhile,
surface low pressure tracks NE toward the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes, with a cold front trailing to the south. Warm and breezy Thu
ahead of the cold front with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s for
most (mid 70s along the coast). A S wind is expected to increase to
15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph farther inland and 20-25 mph with
gusts to 35-40 mph closer to the coast. Winds peak along the coast
and across the Eastern Shore Thu evening into early Thu night with
gusts to 40-45 mph possible. A Wind Advisory is possible
(particularly across the Eastern Shore) but will hold off for now.

Showers move in from SW to NE Thu morning into Thu afternoon with a
few tstms possible in the late afternoon and evening. The greatest
coverage of showers looks to be Thu afternoon into Thu evening. CAPE
looks to be limited (and shallow) with the initial convection Thu
afternoon. The CAMs show some destabilization behind the afternoon
convection and ahead of the cold front Thu evening into early Thu
night. However, given the widespread afternoon convection and
nocturnal time of day, instability should remain limited (~500J/kg
MLCAPE). While some additional showers and storms are expected Thu
evening, limited instability should keep the severe potential on the
low end with a few strong to locally severe storms possible. Shear
will be sufficient for some strong wind gusts with any deeper
convection. The tornado threat is low (given weaker convection) but
non-zero if a stronger storm develops and takes advantage of the
SRH. The greatest threat for strong to severe storms is late Thu
afternoon and mainly Thu evening. Total QPF is expected to remain
generally <1" with locally 1"+ possible. WPC and SPC have maintained
a marginal risk for localized flash flooding and severe storms
respectively. Showers taper off Thu night with lows in the mid-upper
50s expected.

The upper level low swings through Fri with scattered showers
expected to develop Fri afternoon. The cooler air aloft will allow
for a well-mixed environment with breezy conditions through the day.
SW winds of 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph across the area are
expected Fri. Given the lapse rates, enough instability aloft will
be present for locally strong winds and perhaps graupel with
stronger convection. A few storms are also possible. Showers taper
off Fri evening with the loss of sunlight, however, winds remain
breezy Fri night. Highs in the upper 60s W to lower 70s E Fri with
lows Fri night in the mid 40s to around 50F. Mostly sunny, dry, and
breezy Sat with W winds 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-40 mph. Highs Sat
in the upper 60s N to lower 70s S with lows Sat night in the mid-
upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 410 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Trending warmer with highs in the 80s each day.

A ridge strengthens across the central CONUS Sun before moving over
the E Coast by mid week. This will allow for a prolonged period of
warm weather across the local area with temps well above normal next
week. Each day will see the potential for highs in the low-mid 80s
and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Remaining mostly dry.
However, cannot rule out a brief, isolated shower Sun evening, Tue
afternoon/evening, and Wed afternoon/evening across N portions of
the FA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

999mb low pressure is centered over the lower Mississippi
Valley as of 06z. VFR under BKN-OVC mid and high clouds with a S
wind of 5-10kt. Low pressure and an associated cold front
approach from the W this morning. Cigs lower to MVFR at RIC
~14z, and the 15-18z at the remaining sites, with cigs
potentially falling to IFR 17-20z. Showers arrive from SW-NE
later this morning, reaching RIC after 15z and prior to 18z, and
mainly around and after 18z at the remaining sites. Showers
continue this aftn/early evening, and then end SW-NE later this
evening through the early overnight hours. Some thunder is
possible later this aftn and evening. A S wind increases to
15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt this aftn, and peaks at 20-25 kt
with gusts to 35-40 kt along the coast and across the Eastern
Shore this evening. LLWS will therefore be possible late this
aftn into early tonight. IFR cigs lift from SW-NE later this
evening, with VFR conditions returning later tonight.

An upper level low moves through Friday with scattered showers
and perhaps an isolated tstm. Breezy Friday with a W wind of
15-20kt gusting to ~30kt, and some locally stronger gusts
possible in any showers. Dry and VFR Saturday through Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages/Headline Summary:

1) Sub-SCA south to southwest winds tonight into early Thursday
morning.


2. An approaching cold front brings strong southerly winds by
Thursday afternoon, peaking Thursday night. Gale watches have
been converted to Gale Warnings for Ocean zones. SCAs have been
issued all remaining zones, with a Gale Watch in effect for the
mouth of the Bay and the Currituck sound Thursday night (this is
where uncertainty is high for marginal Gales). Winds remain
strong and gusty from the W/SW Friday through Saturday morning
(with extension of SCAs needed).

Latest analysis shows high pressure well off the SE US coast. SW
winds had been a bit gusty this aftn but are trending down now.
Seas are 2-4 ft and waves 1-2 ft in the Chesapeake Bay and the
rivers. SSW winds avg 5-15kt tonight. Similar forecast
reasoning remains heading into Thursday. Winds are forecast to
increase to 20-25 kt Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening
for most of the local waters as the pressure gradient tightens
in response to sub-990 mb low pressure lifting NE through the
Great Lakes. Most model guidance now suggests a 6-9 hr period
Thu night where winds increase to 25-30 kt with gusts in the
35-40 kt range. This is most likely over the ocean (despite the
cooler waters and limited mixing). While local wind probs tend
to run too high in these southerly wind events, probs for 34+ kt
gusts are 90-100% N of Cape Charles and 70-90% S of Cape
Charles. Some of the higher winds and wind gusts (in the 40-50
kt range) being portrayed by some guidance continue to look too
inflated given the cooler waters. Elsewhere, the main way that
we are likely to see gale force gusts would be via shallow
convection which could lead to sporadic instances of higher wind
gusts. Seas will quickly increase to 5- 6 ft Thu aftn and then
6-9 ft S and to 8-12 ft N Thu night- Fri morning. Waves in the
Chesapeake Bay also become 4-5 ft during this time.

Winds become WSW 15-20 kt in the wake of the frontal passage from
later Fri morning through most of the daylight hrs Fri, though
will tend to increase to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt late Fri
morning through Fri aftn over area rivers given deep mixing
over land areas. A secondary front crosses the area Fri night
and brings modest CAA and west winds that will bump up with
gusts to 30 kt for most of the region. SCA conditions
potentially linger into early- midday Sat before winds taper off
Sat night and Sun with high pressure situating S of the area.
Seas gradually drop off to 5-7 ft Fri night and then to 3-5 ft
for Sat. 4 ft waves are expected at the mouth of the bay through
early Sat. A more benign sea state returns for the rest of the
weekend into next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages/Headline Summary:

1) Generally only nuisance flooding tonight through Thursday
afternoon (primarily limited to Bishops Head).

2) A significant southerly surge brings a good chc for
moderate to major flooding in the upper bay late Thursday
night/Friday morning. Current tide forecasts have water levels
reaching major thresholds at Bishops Head (and near major at
Cambridge). A coastal flood watch remains in effect for a
potential of ~2 ft of inundation. Coastal Flood Advisories have
been issued for minor flooding along the north side of the
Albemarle Sound and southern VA Beach Thursday/Thursday night,
and for the middle Peninsula/northern Neck.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Friday morning
     for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT
     Friday for MDZ024.
     High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday
     for MDZ025.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Friday for NCZ015>017-032-102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT
     Friday for VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522.
     High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday
     for VAZ099-100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Friday for VAZ098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Friday for ANZ630>632-635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ633-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     Gale Watch from this evening through late tonight for ANZ633-
     634.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM/TMG
SHORT TERM...AJZ/RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AM/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ