Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201030 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 630 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into and over the region through Sunday. Low pressure tracks from the Gulf Coast states northeast up along the East Coast Monday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 350 AM EDT Friday... Latest sfc analysis shows a cold front pushing well offshore with ~1032 mb high pressure centered over the Upr Midwest. The high slowly builds east today with dry wx and a sunny sky for the Mid Atlc. Gusty NW winds still expected through midday near the coast before CAA weakens. Temps will be about 10 degrees blo normal...highs ranging from the mid 50s east to low 60s west. Clear and cold again tonight with lows ranging fm the mid 30s to arnd 40. No frost/freeze headlines necessary. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 350 AM EDT Friday... Mostly sunny on Sat with high pressure building in from the NW, and N or NE winds 10 kt or less. High temps range fm the upper 50s/near 60 at the coast to the mid 60s inland. Mostly clear to partly cloudy and not as cold Sat night, with lows mainly in the lower 40s. Partly sunny on Sun with highs mainly ranging thru the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 500 PM EDT Thursday... The medium range period will begin with a slow moving upper low tracking east from the lower MS Valley to the TN Valley Sun night through early Tue. Upper ridging will be in place across the mid-Atlc through mon night with strong sfc high pressure centered over the NE CONUS, ridging south to off the Delmarva. While some mid/high clouds may affect the local area Sun night/Mon, conditions should remain dry with the possible exception of the far SW counties where a 20% PoP will be maintained Mon aftn/Mon evening. Expect below average temperatures with lows Sun night ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs Mon 60-65 F most places. By Tue, consensus between the 19/12Z models is for the upper low to slowly weaken to an open wave while moving into the SE CONUS/southern Appalachians. Sfc low pressure along the Gulf coast is progged to move NE up through the SE coastal plain while sfc high pressure retreats well off the NE/mid-Atlc coasts. Still some model timing and strength differences so with the uncertainty, kept PoPs around 40% to 50% for the bulk of the CWA, genly highest Tue and Tue night. Mainly cloudy so not as cold Mon night with lows in the 40s to lower 50s and highs Tue mid 60s SE to around 60 NW (potentially could be cooler than this if it rains all day). Will keep 30-40% chance showers Wed and 20% thu as the eventual evolution of the sfc low shows quite a bit of disagreement amongst the models by this timeframe. Partly/mostly cloudy Wed and thu with highs warming a bit to 65-70 F and lows mainly 50-55 F. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 630 AM EDT Friday... VFR through the 12Z TAF period. Northwest winds will slowly diminish today as high pressure builds back into the region. Otws, SKC and dry wx today and tonight. Outlook: VFR conditions will continue through Sun, with high pressure over the region. A disturbance approaches the region late Monday and Tuesday bringing the next chance for sub-VFR conditions.
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&& .MARINE... As of 350 AM EDT Friday... CAA will wane this morning with a NW wind of 15-25kt diminishing to aob 15kt by this aftn. Gale flags for the Bay/ocean S of Cape Charles have expired and been replaced with SCA flags. SCAs for the Rivers continue through 11z and 14z for the remaining marine zones. Seas/waves of 4-7ft/2-4ft will gradually subside through the morning. High pressure builds in from the NW this aftn into tonight. A secondary surge is expected later tonight, but this surge should generally be sub-SCA. High pressure will build over the region Saturday and Sunday resulting in benign marine conditions. High pressure pushes off the Srn New England coast early next week as low pressure pushes off the Southeast coast. This will result in increasing onshore flow. An E wind is expected to reach 10-15kt by Monday, and then 15-25kt by Monday night/Tuesday/Tuesday night. Onshore flow will result in seas building to 6-10ft by Tuesday/Tuesday night, with 4-5ft waves in the Mouth of the Bay. Broad low pressure crosses the region Wednesday with the wind becoming NW in the wake of the low. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ048-060>062- 064-067>069-509>511. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ635>638.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...MAS MARINE...AJZ

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