Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

138
FXUS61 KAKQ 180514
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
114 AM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves across the southern states today. Low pressure
and associated warm front tracks north of the area tonight. Gusty
west winds will accompany a cold front that will move across the
region Thursday. Dry weather with below normal temperatures into
this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
Latest analysis indicates a fairly weak sfc pressure gradient
across the local area as we remain in between broad sfc low over
the NE CONUS and high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and
Florida. Winds have nearly de-coupled or become light/variable
west of Ches Bay and under mostly clear skies, temperatures have
rapidly dropped (though are quite variable). Decided to raise a
Freeze warning for Louisa/Caroline/western Hanover where
temperatures are already into the 30s over much of these zones.
Clouds moving in from the WSW after 06Z are expected to remain
south of these areas so anticipate about 50% of the area to fall
to 32 F or slightly below. This is not likely to be a hard
freeze and is marginal but has been issued nonetheless.
Elsewhere, have genly lowered mins a few degrees given that
mostly clear skies should persist through at least 06Z. Becoming
partly to mostly cloudy over southern 1/2 of the CWA from
06-12Z. Lows outside the Freeze Warning area will avg 33-38 F,
except for locally in the lower 40s SE VA/NC coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Winds shift back to SW by Wed ahead of low pres diving ESE into
the OH Valley. Averaging out partly sunny w/ highs Wed from the
m50s-around 60F on the Ern Shore to the u60s-m70s in central VA
to SE VA-NE NC.

Potent s/w aloft tracks by just N of the FA late Wed night-Thu
morning...w/ a cold front (moisture starved) pushing quickly E
through the local area. Expected development of gusty W winds
Thu along w/ a substantial push of dry air (midday-afternoon)
into the region. Best uvm for pcpn will remain N of the local
area...though cannot rule out (mainly) N and NE areas being
brushed by isold SHRAS. Lows Wed night in the u40s-l50s N to the
m-u50s S. Windy (potential gusts to 30-40 mph) and partly-mostly
sunny Thu w/ from the l-m60s on the Ern Shore and over the NW
piedmont to the u60s-l70s in central VA to SE VA-NE NC.

Dry/cool wx Thu night-Fri as lo pres is slow to exit New England
and hi pres only gradually builds into the local area from the NW.
Still hanging on to a gusty NW wind Thu night into Fri...lastly
waning at the coast (Fri afternoon). Lows Thu night from the
m-u30s inland to the l40s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet weather with below average temperatures expected through
the bulk of the extended period. 17/12z GFS/ECMWF/CMC are in
agreement that sfc high pressure remains anchored to the N/NW
through Monday. At the same time, a low pressure system slowly
tracks from the srn Plains to the southeastern US. Rain chances
return by the middle of next week as that same area of low
pressure tracks northeastward up the Atlantic coast. Have
introduced slight chc PoPs north/chance PoPs south Tue night-
Wed.

Highs in the low 60s on Saturday warming to mid-upper 60s Sun-Tue
from Central VA to NE NC. Slightly cooler on the Ern Shore with
upper 50s on Saturday warming to low-mid 60s Sun-Tue. Lows Saturday
AM just above freezing in the far northwest to around 40 in SE VA/NE
NC. From Sun-Tue, expect lows in the 40s throughout the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions with only SCT-BKN mid-high level cloudiness
through the forecast period. Light E winds early shift to the
S/SW at 10-15 kt during the aftn. SCT-BKN CI tonight.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue through Sat. A cold front will
cross the region on Thursday accompanied by SCT-BKN clouds and
gusty WSW winds shifting to the WNW. Potential for wind gusts to
30 kt Thu from late morning through the aftn. VFR/dry with winds
from the NW on Fri, shifting to the N to NE on Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA headlines are no longer in effect for the coastal waters as
winds and seas have decreased below criteria. SCAs will remain
in effect for the Bay and rivers until 7 pm. With loss of mixing
winds across the bay will decrease to 10 to 15 overnight.
Marine conditions will continue to improve overnight into Wed as
low pressure over New England advances into Canada and a weak
ridge of high pressure builds over the Mid Atlantic. Next cold
front crosses the area Thu, with another round of SCA conditions
expected following the front Thu into Thu night. High pressure
builds in from the west on Fri and NW winds may start out as
SCA, but slowly decrease through the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Confidence is high enough for the issuance of a Fire WX Watch
for most of VA zones for Thu for min RH values of 25-30% and
strong gusty west winds of 20-25 mph with higher gusts. Even
with the cool temperatures today (only in the 50s), fine fuels
have dried out significantly compared to yesterday at this time
(now down to 10-12% after being ~25%). With little to no rain in
the forecast over the next 36 hrs and with the frontal passage
Thu, pattern looks favorable given the time of year, and the
typical lag in the arrival of cold air to the sfc as the
downslope offsets the drop in 850 mb temperatures. Left VA
Beach, the VA eastern shore, and MD eastern shore out of the
watch with forecast min RH values staying above 30% but issued
an SPS/fire Danger Statement for the VA zones (MD is lowest
confidence at this time given potential for more clouds and
cooler temperatures). For NC, RH criteria is 25%, and especially
closer to the coast the drop in aftn dew pts may not arrive
early enough to see critical fire WX conditions develop, but
have also issued an SPS for increased fire danger for all of NC
except the NC Outer Banks. For the zones in the watch, later
shifts will continue to monitor trends and re-assess the need
for an upgrade to a Red Flag Warning or just an SPS/increased
fire danger statement.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River flood warning for Meherrin River at Lawrenceville has been
cancelled with it falling below flood stage Tues evening. River
flood warnings remain in effect for the James River at Bremo
Bluff, Westham and Richmond Locks.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ064-509>511.
     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
     095>097-509>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAS/JAO
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ
HYDROLOGY...MPR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.