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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240812
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
412 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front pushes through the region today, with some
scattered showers expected. Strong high pressure then builds
east from the eastern Great Lakes to off the New England coast
Thursday through Friday. A marked warming trend is then expected
for Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers or sprinkles possible with a passing cold
  front this morning through late afternoon.

Latest analysis reveals 1020+mb sfc high pressure centered
offshore of the southeast coast early this morning. To the
northwest, low pressure continues to slide across the Mason-
Dixon line early this morning, with a weak cold front just
crossing the central Appalachians early this morning. To the
north, a stronger low was analyzed crossing SE Quebec, with its
cold front extending back into the upper Great Lakes and the
mid-Missouri Valley. Aloft, a weakening shortwave embedded in NW
flow aloft was noted diving across the Ohio Valley toward the
mid-Atlantic region early this morning. Behind this feature, low
amplitude shortwave ridging was building east from the Plains
into the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys.

Not too much change in the going forecast today and through the
remainder of the work week. The first cold front drops across
the region this morning, before briefly stalling this afternoon
and eventually clearing the area this evening. Little to no
instability to speak of with this system and PWs remain
unimpressive, owing to flow turning downslope east of the
mountains. Thus, expect little more than increasing clouds and
some scattered showers with the frontal passage, mainly this
morning into early afternoon north, and late morning into late
afternoon central and south. PoPs will only be 30-50% (highest
north of US-460), with QPF on the order of a few hundredths to a
tenth of an inch. Maintained a slight to low-end chance PoP
after 22z (6p-8p) for a stray shower or two, but otherwise
drying out tonight. Highs in the low to mid 70s, except upper 60s
for the immediate coast

The second front associated with the upper wave drops through
with little fanfare this evening. Clearing late into the
overnight hours, as cool 1028+mb surface high pressure builds
over the Great Lakes. There still seems enough mixing to keep
temperatures from dropping off too much except over the far N/NW
zones Wed night. Lows in the low 40s far NW (US-15 corridor),
with mid 40s to around 50F elsewhere.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures remain near to just below normal through the late
  week period.

- Mainly dry, with patchy frost possible Thursday night.

High pressure builds east from the eastern Great Lakes into New
England on Thursday, before sliding off the New England coast
on Friday. Mostly sunny and cool each day with highs ranging
from the mid 50s to mid 60s (coolest along the coast Thu due to
modest onshore flow). Clear/mostly clear Thu night with lows
ranging from the upr 30s to mid 40s. Patchy frost may be
possible once again, mainly over the northern 1/2 of the FA from
the piedmont to e-central VA and the eastern shore. A bit
milder Fri night as the airmass modifies (but remains near to
below normal) courtesy of persistent onshore flow. Lows Friday
night range through the 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Marked warming trend expected for the weekend into early next
  week.

- Rain chances return ahead of and with an approaching cold
  front by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.

The medium range forecast period begins with an amplifying
upper ridge from the Gulf of Mexico to the upper midwest,
expanding to the east coast over the weekend. As high pressure
builds offshore and settles in the western Atlantic Saturday
through Tuesday, expect temperatures trend back upward through
the period; from near normal Sat (highs in the 70s, except 60s
Eastern Shore), to above normal Sun-Mon (low-mid 80s inland,
upper 70s to around 80 coast) as the upper ridge remains across
the ern CONUS over the weekend into Monday, before finally
breaking down by the middle of next week. The next front
approaches from the west Mon/Tue next week. Our next chance for
showers and isolated storms will be possible with the frontal
passage itself by next Tuesday and Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...

Mid to high clouds continue to increase early this morning ahead
of an approaching cold front. Expect VFR conditions to prevail
through the 06z TAF period. Winds will generally be SW early
this morning with some gusts to ~20 kt, especially at the
coastal terminals. Have allowed for some LLWS at RIC/SBY early
this morning through around sunrise. Scattered showers are
expected ahead of and with the cold frontal passage from around
sunrise into mid to late afternoon. Will limit mention to VCSH
at ECG with VCSH/-SHRA at all other terminals, with flight
categories remaining VFR throughout the period (CIGs lowering to
5-7 kft AGL by late morning/early afternoon). Winds generally
become westerly behind the frontal passage this evening.

Outlook: Behind the frontal passage, dry and predominately VFR
conditions persist for the late week period into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) SCAs remain in effect for all local waters early today.

2) Another round of SCA conditions is likely tonight into Thursday
behind a cold front.

SCAs remain in effect until 10 AM this morning for the upper rivers
and Currituck Sound, 1 PM for the Lower James and Ches Bay, and 7 PM
for the coastal waters (due to lingering seas). Winds early this
morning were SW 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Winds gradually
diminish to 10-15 kt by this afternoon behind a prefrontal trough
and ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front stalls inland
this afternoon into this evening before pushing SE across the local
waters tonight. Meanwhile, high pressure builds into the Great
Lakes today, building towards the local area Thu into Fri. Ahead of
the front, winds become light (5-10 kt) this evening before becoming
N then NE 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt overnight behind the
front. Weak low pressure develops along the cold front as it pushes
offshore. The pressure gradient between the weak offshore low and
the high building in from the N will allow for NE winds to linger
through Fri before becoming E Fri night. However, winds should drop
below SCA criteria Thu night and linger around 13-17 kt Thu night
through Fri night. SCAs will be needed for at least the initial
portion of the surge tonight into Sat. Conditions are marginal for
the upper rivers, but there should be at least a few hours of SCA
winds tonight. Winds become SE 10-15 kt Sat as high pressure moves
offshore.

Waves and seas were generally 3-4 ft and 4-6 ft respectively early
this morning. Seas build to 5-7 ft later this morning before
gradually subsiding this afternoon. Seas subside below SCA criteria
this evening before building back to 5-6 ft late tonight into Thu
night behind the cold front. Seas may linger around 4-5 ft across
the S coastal waters through Fri due to persistent onshore flow.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday...

Winds remain SW this morning, before becoming W tonight. As
such, water continues to be pushed towards the bay side of the
Maryland Eastern Shore this morning. Bishops Head and Cambridge
have both reached Minor Flood stage this morning. As such, the
Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect across portions of the
Maryland Eastern Shore until 8 AM. Winds diminish later today,
along with tidal anomalies.

A prolonged period of NE flow is expected to begin tonight
behind a cold front passage, lingering into Friday. While
widespread coastal flooding is not expected, localized coastal
flooding is possible along portions of the James river with nuisance
to minor flooding possible during the Thursday night high
tide at Smithfield, VA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633-
     635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...JDM/MAM
AVIATION...MAM/RHR
MARINE...RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...