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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230704
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
304 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure centered over the local area this morning slides
off the Carolina coast this evening. A weak cold front pushes
through the region on Wednesday, with a few light showers
possible. Strong high pressure then builds from the eastern
Great Lakes eastward to off the New England coast Thursday
through Friday. A marked warming trend is then expected for the
upcoming weekend into early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Near-normal temperatures today under plentiful sunshine after
  a frosty start this morning.

- Increasing clouds and milder tonight.

The latest wx analysis reveals 1022+mb surface high pressure
centered from the deep south into the Mid-Atlantic region. Low
pressure was noted over SW Ontario, with a cold front extending
back into the northern plains. Aloft, a pair of deep troughs
are evident on early morning WV satellite imagery. The first is
associated with a second deepening surface low well off the
Carolina coast. The other is a weak shortwave trough diving E-SE
across the Dakotas toward the upper midwest. In between,
shortwave ridging over the plains to the mid-south is slowly
pushing E-NE this morning. 07z Temperatures are chilly as
expected, largely in the 30s to low 40s, and a the Frost
Advisory in effect for much of the area away from the immediate
coast still looks in good shape.

For today, look for mainly sunny conditions with just a few
passing high clouds as the sfc high drifts off the mid-Atlantic
and southeast coasts by this aftn. The resultant SSW wind
~10mph well inland by aftn will warm into the lower 70s well
inland, with mid to upper 60s near the coast, where a cool
afternoon sea-breeze is expected to stabilize temperatures, with
some falling temps possible for Hampton Roads by mid to late
afternoon.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday

Key Messages:

- Temperatures remain below normal through the late week
  period.

- Scattered showers or sprinkles possible with a passing cold
  front Wednesday into Wednesday afternoon.

- Another chance for patchy frost Thursday night into Friday
  morning for much of the area outside of urban Hampton Roads
  and coastal northeast NC.

Increasing clouds move in overnight Tue into Wed morning in
advance of the previously referenced front currently over the
upper midwest. The increasing clouds and return flow will keep
early morning lows much milder relative to this morning`s
readings. Forecast lows range from the mid/upper 40s over
interior southern VA/NE NC, to the lower 50s elsewhere.
Deterministic models remain in good agreement with the upper
trough and main sfc low tracking east across Ontario/Quebec
into northern New England on Wednesday, dragging its cold front
through the local area during the aftn. Moist of the moisture
from this system gets scoured out in the Appalachians to the
west, as the low-level flow turns downslope (westerly) rather
quickly. As such, only scattered light rain showers or sprinkles
are anticipated. PoPs will only be ~30%, with QPF on the order
of a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch at most. Timing of the
front is a bit faster, and while it will be well- mixed, high
temperatures have been lowered over Hampton Roads in
anticipationof a bit more cloud cover during peak heating
time. Highs in the low to mid 70s north, upper 60s to lower 70s
along the SE coast.

The front pushes SSE of the area Wed night, with sfc high pressure
building eastward across the Great Lakes. There still seems enough
mixing to keep temperatures from dropping off too much except
over the far N/NW zones Wed night. Lows will be in the upper
30s/around 40F NW to the upper 40s SE. High pressure builds east
from the eastern Great Lakes to off the New England coast Thu
through Fri. Mostly sunny and cool Thu/Fri with highs ranging
from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Clear/mostly clear Thu night with
lows ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s. Patchy frost will be
possible once again, mainly over the northern 1/2 of the FA from
the piedmont to e-central VA and the eastern shore. Slightly
milder as the airmass modifies (but remains near to below
normal) courtesy of persistent onshore flow. Lows Friday night
range through the 40s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Marked warming trend expected for the weekend into early next
  week.

- Rain chances return ahead of and with an approaching cold
  front Monday afternoon.

The medium range forecast period begins with an amplifying
upper ridge from the Gulf of Mexico to the upper midwest,
expanding to the east coast over the weekend. This ridge
continues to look a bit stronger than modeled earlier this week,
which should keep the FA mainly dry through the weekend.
Temperatures trend back upward through the period; from near
normal Sat (highs in the 70s), to above normal Sun- Mon (mid 80s
inland, upper 70s to low 80s coast) as the upper ridge remains
across the ern CONUS. The next system will approach Monday and
Tuesday of next week, with the associated cold front approaching
by the middle of next week. Some showers and storms will be
possible over the NW portion of the area Monday afternoon and
evening, as some pre- frontal (lee trough) convection could push
into the area. More widespread showers and storms would then be
possible with the frontal passage itself next Tuesday.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions with mainly SKC skies continue through the 06z
TAF period. High pressure remains in control of the weather
pattern through tonight. Light/variable winds early this morning
shift to the SSW inland (S to SSE along the coast) by this
afternoon, increasing to ~10 knots. A few gusts of 15-20 knots
will be possible this afternoon over inland terminals. VFR to
start this evening, with increasing mid to high clouds by
evening into Wed morning.

Outlook: A few showers (isolated to scattered) push across the
area in association with a crossing cold front on Wednesday.
However, flying conditions should stay primarily VFR. Dry/VFR
conditions then persist for the late week period into the
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Surface analysis shows broad high pressure stretching from eastern
TX NE into the Ohio Valley with deepening low pressure now well off
the NC coast. Winds continue to slowly decrease today and now
average N 10-15 kt over the local waters. Waves in the bay are 1-3
ft (highest near the mouth). Seas offshore range from 3-4 ft N to 5-
7 ft S.

Higher seas continue to hang on across the southern coastal waters
despite decreasing wind speeds. Opted to extend the SCA for the
ocean south of Cape Charles Light until 7pm with the waters south of
the VA/NC border extended until 10pm (this zone may require another
extension this evening as seas are notoriously slow to subside here
even in weak NE winds). Otherwise, quiet marine weather is expected
tonight into Tuesday. Secondary low pressure deepens along the
stalled front well offshore late Tuesday and will keep some enhanced
8-10 second E-SE swell moving toward the coast, likely necessitating
another round of SCA for all/most of the coastal waters Tue night.
Meanwhile, a mainly dry cold front approaches from the west late
Tuesday into Wednesday. A re-tightening of the surface pressure
gradient results in increasing SW winds to around 15 kt, though some
low-end SCA may also be needed in the Bay and lower James River. The
front moves through the region Wednesday night into early Thursday,
with increasing N winds and potential for SCA headlines in its
wake.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday

Given the significant drying that occurred yesterday, fire wx
could become a bit more of a concern today. Gusty SW winds of
10-12 mph with gusts to around 20 mph are expected, with
afternoon relative humidities to fall into the 20 to 30 percent
range over central and south central Virginia, including the
Richmond metro area and the VA northern neck. With good mixing
anticipated (which is notoriously not modeled well with respect
to dewpoint temperatures), we will coordinate with state
officials and neighboring offices later this morning to
determine the need for an SPS/IFD statement. Main area of
concern today would be for areas along and NNW of I-85.
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&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>024.
NC...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ012>014-030.
VA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-075-076-079>083-087>090-092-093-096-097-509>522.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...AJB/MAM
MARINE...MAM/RHR
FIRE WEATHER...