Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280515 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 115 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving cold front approaches the area from the west tonight. Low pressure developing along the front approaches from the south tonight into Thursday, with rain becoming more widespread and falling locally heavy at times tonight. A Flood Watch has been issued for southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina where upwards of two to three inches of rain is forecast. Drier air returns for late Thursday and Friday with breezy winds. Temperatures will warm into the weekend with more unsettled weather possible next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 900 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1. Rain becomes more widespread from west to east through tonight. Periods of heavy rainfall develop near and along the coast early Thursday morning, likely affecting the morning rush hour. 2. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Southeast Virginia and Northeast North Carolina. Rainfall totals forecast to reach 3 to 3.5 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Deep-layered southwest flow aloft is present over the area this evening, which is funneling anomalously moist gulf moisture north across the eastern seaboard. All of this moisture is lifting NNE along and ahead of an advancing (but slow- moving) cold front, which extends southward from the parent low across the interior northeast into the eastern gulf coast. An area of low pressure continues to lift across this front across the Carolinas this evening, and will lift slowly along the Carolina coast toward the VA Capes midday Thursday afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers are noted across roughly the NW 2/3rds of the area as of this writing. It remains mainly dry over SE VA and NE NC. The front pushes into our far western sections tonight, with rain becoming increasingly heavy after midnight and through the early morning hours Thursday along and especially east of the front, as the low tracks slowly NNE across NE NC. DESI via the 12z HREF, along with recent runs of the hi-res NAM and HRRR, continue to show increased probabilities for rainfall rates 0.50-0.75" per hour after 09z/5a late tonight through the first half of the AM rush over much of the Flood Watch area. Localized ponding water and potential flooding concerns continue over these areas as a result. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain continues on Thursday with flooding issues possible. 2. Northwest winds become gusty on Friday. Thu: Heavy rain continues across the eastern half of the CWA to start the short term period. This will make for a messy morning commute over Hampton Roads and the eastern shore especially, with potential flooding concerns. A Flood Watch remains in effect until 8pm Thursday. Far western areas such as Louisa, Fluvanna, Prince Edward, etc will be post-frontal by mid-morning and should see the rain diminishing in coverage and intensity through the mid to late morning period, as the focus shifts toward the coastal plain. Secondary forecast concern will be the increasing NNW winds, owing to tightening pressure gradient between high pressure building to the west over the Ohio Valley and our deepening low offshore of the Mid- Atlantic coast. QPF: Overall additional rainfall totals will range from 0.50-1.00 across the far west, 1-2" inches across the RIC metro/I-85 corridor up to the MD Eastern Shore, and 2.5-3.5" inches with locally higher amounts possible across southeast VA and northeast NC. Thu Night-Friday: The system will push offshore late Thursday afternoon into Thu evening, bringing rain chances to an end for the entire area. You can expect a gradually clearing sky Thu night into Friday morning. Partly cloudy and breezy on Friday, as the pressure gradient remains compressed between the departing system and high pressure building to the NNW. High temperatures Friday will be in the mid-upper 60s inland with coastal locations holding in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds subside Fri evening into Saturday, but between the well-mixed BL and increasing high clouds ahead of the next system, went toward the warmer end of the guidance envelope. Low temps mainly in the 40s, to near 50 SE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1. Moderating trend with mainly dry weather and warming temperatures for Easter Weekend. 2. Rain chances increase Monday into Tuesday, before trending warmer and drier toward the middle of next week. Dampening ridging pushing east from the plains in the wake of our midweek system will combine to provide NW flow pattern aloft through the weekend. This portends a mainly dry period to start with increasing clouds as weak disturbances to pass through from time to time late Saturday into early next week. The first of these systems slides by to our north Saturday/Saturday night, bringing some increasing clouds across northern sections. Some lingering moisture may build up against the mountains ahead of a second disturbance moving out of the Ohio River valley on Easter Sunday. A shower or two may try to push into our far northwest CWA NW of Richmond, but for now kept the forecast dry for Easter Sunday. Models begin to differ on the overall driving force of our weather pattern to start the new work week. Both the 12z/27 GFS and ECMWF are showing a slightly better chance of spotty showers across the area Monday and Tuesday. However, the ECMWF lifts a warm front north of the area and drying the region out a bit quicker into Tuesday, while the GFS is a bit slower to do so. Given that the ECMWF solution clusters well with EPS and even the GEFS, have gone closer to the warmer/drier ECMWF solution toward midweek. Thicknesses steadily climb each day, allowing temperatures to gradually warm each day Fri-Sunday starting with mid 60s inland Friday, then jumping to near 70 degrees on Saturday, and low to mid 70s...to upper 70s possible southern sections on Easter Sunday. A weak front slides into the area on Monday, but lifting back north by midweek, allowing temperatures to warm back up toward the end of the period. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 115 AM EDT Thursday... Poor conditions will persist through most of the TAF period. Terminals are currently bouncing around between LIFR and low-end MVFR as scattered showers and low CIGs pass through early this morning. There are even a few flashes of lightning and CBs out there, though that should remain very isolated to south/southeast locations. Expect all terminals to drop into LIFR thresholds as the heavy rain moves in after 08-10Z. VIS restrictions to 2-3SM will be likely for most of the day. RIC and points west will start to break out of the heavier rain after mid-day, though think RIC will remain on edge of SHRA into the afternoon. Northerly breezes will increase after 15Z with some gusts to 22kt possible. Heavy rain will begin to move offshore after 00Z, with CIGs/VIS improving at terminals from west to east this evening. Expect skies to become mostly clear tonight. Outlook: Northwesterly winds are expected to become gusty areawide on Friday. VFR conditions will prevail Friday and into the weekend, though some light showers are possible across the north on Saturday and for most of the area on Sunday.
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&& .MARINE... As of 1030 PM EDT Wednesday... Update: A Gale Watch has been added for the remaining Chesapeake Bay zones late Thursday aftn into Thursday night. SCAs have been issued for the Rappahannock, York, and James Rivers along with the Currituck Sound Thursday aftn into Thursday night. Previous Discussion... Weak high pressure is noted over the Ches Bay leading to light winds across the N and easterly/onshore winds 10-15 kt over the S. Waves are 1-2 ft with 2-3 ft at the mouth of the bay. Seas offshore continue to slowly diminish and are running 4-6 ft, with the highest values across the southern zones where onshore flow is stronger. SCA headlines continue for the Atlantic coastal waters due to lingering seas. 12z guidance shows a more shallow track of low pressure Thursday night and early Friday which results in the strongest winds across the southern waters Thursday night with some increase expected farther north as the low pulls away Friday morning. NNW winds strengthen through the day tomorrow with 20-25 kt and gusts to 30-35 kt likely by early evening. Winds peak late Thursday night with gusts to 40 kt offshore. The consensus of the 12z guidance argues for upgrading the southern coastal waters to a Gale Warning with this forecast package. Will maintain Gale Watches for the remaining offshore zones as well as the mouth of the bay from Thursday afternoon into early Friday due to lower confidence and later timing of potential gale conditions. While seas from Cape Charles southward may briefly fall below SCA thresholds tonight, opted to extend the SCA headlines until the start of the Gale Warning as seas are expected to build once again during the day Thursday. For the offshore zones north of Cape Charles, SCAs currently end late tonight but these may need to be extended as well depending on buoy observations. Winds decrease quickly after sunrise on Friday with most areas falling below 20 kt by the afternoon. Seas will quickly diminish in the wester/offshore flow on Friday but will take some time to fall below 5 ft. The weekend into early next week will be much improved with high pressure dominating the local weather pattern. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 335 PM EDT Wednesday... Heavy rainfall will develop and persist across (mainly) the eastern half of area tonight through Thursday morning. A range of 1.5 to 3.5 inches of rain is expected, with the highest amounts across southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina, where a Flood Watch remains in effect. This could create some flooding issues, especially in urban areas and poor drainage spots on Thursday. Additionally, river forecasts are indicating levels may rise into minor flooding stage across portions of the Nottoway River, Meherrin River, and Cashie River Friday and into the weekend as a result of the heavy rainfall. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 1030 PM EDT Wednesday... A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for the Bay-side of the MD Eastern Shore, the southern shore of the tidal Potomac, the western shore of the Bay from the mouth of the Rappahannock to Smith Point, and the tidal Rappahannock. Tidal anomalies have been slow and another round of nuisance to borderline minor flooding is possible. Previous Discussion... Tidal anomalies continue to linger around 2 ft despite ebb tides dominating at the mouth of the bay. Opted to upgrade the previous coastal flood statements to Coastal Flood Advisories for the tidal Potomac and bay side portions of the MD Eastern Shore as locally minor tidal flooding is forecast this afternoon/evening. The subsequent high tide cycle may also reach minor flood thresholds at Bishop`s Head but will hold of on extending the advisory with anomalies expect to continue falling off. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ087>090-092-093- 095>098-523>525. MARINE...Gale Watch from this afternoon through Friday morning for ANZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ633-638. Gale Watch from this afternoon through Friday morning for ANZ634-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656- 658. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM/SW SHORT TERM...MAM/JKP LONG TERM...MAM/JKP AVIATION...JKP MARINE...AJZ/RHR HYDROLOGY...JKP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJZ

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