Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280515
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
115 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front approaches the area from the west
tonight. Low pressure developing along the front approaches from
the south tonight into Thursday, with rain becoming more
widespread and falling locally heavy at times tonight. A Flood
Watch has been issued for southeast Virginia and northeast North
Carolina where upwards of two to three inches of rain is
forecast. Drier air returns for late Thursday and Friday with
breezy winds. Temperatures will warm into the weekend with more
unsettled weather possible next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 900 PM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1. Rain becomes more widespread from west to east through
tonight. Periods of heavy rainfall develop near and along the
coast early Thursday morning, likely affecting the morning rush
hour.
2. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Southeast Virginia and
Northeast North Carolina. Rainfall totals forecast to reach 3 to
3.5 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.
Deep-layered southwest flow aloft is present over the area this
evening, which is funneling anomalously moist gulf moisture
north across the eastern seaboard. All of this moisture is
lifting NNE along and ahead of an advancing (but slow- moving)
cold front, which extends southward from the parent low across
the interior northeast into the eastern gulf coast. An area of
low pressure continues to lift across this front across the
Carolinas this evening, and will lift slowly along the Carolina
coast toward the VA Capes midday Thursday afternoon.
Scattered to numerous showers are noted across roughly the NW
2/3rds of the area as of this writing. It remains mainly dry
over SE VA and NE NC. The front pushes into our far western
sections tonight, with rain becoming increasingly heavy after
midnight and through the early morning hours Thursday along and
especially east of the front, as the low tracks slowly NNE
across NE NC. DESI via the 12z HREF, along with recent runs of
the hi-res NAM and HRRR, continue to show increased
probabilities for rainfall rates 0.50-0.75" per hour after
09z/5a late tonight through the first half of the AM rush over
much of the Flood Watch area. Localized ponding water and
potential flooding concerns continue over these areas as a
result.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rain continues on Thursday with flooding issues
possible.
2. Northwest winds become gusty on Friday.
Thu: Heavy rain continues across the eastern half of the CWA to
start the short term period. This will make for a messy morning
commute over Hampton Roads and the eastern shore especially,
with potential flooding concerns. A Flood Watch remains in
effect until 8pm Thursday. Far western areas such as Louisa,
Fluvanna, Prince Edward, etc will be post-frontal by mid-morning
and should see the rain diminishing in coverage and intensity
through the mid to late morning period, as the focus shifts
toward the coastal plain. Secondary forecast concern will be the
increasing NNW winds, owing to tightening pressure gradient
between high pressure building to the west over the Ohio Valley
and our deepening low offshore of the Mid- Atlantic coast.
QPF: Overall additional rainfall totals will range from
0.50-1.00 across the far west, 1-2" inches across the RIC
metro/I-85 corridor up to the MD Eastern Shore, and 2.5-3.5"
inches with locally higher amounts possible across southeast VA
and northeast NC.
Thu Night-Friday: The system will push offshore late Thursday
afternoon into Thu evening, bringing rain chances to an end for
the entire area. You can expect a gradually clearing sky Thu
night into Friday morning. Partly cloudy and breezy on Friday,
as the pressure gradient remains compressed between the
departing system and high pressure building to the NNW. High
temperatures Friday will be in the mid-upper 60s inland with
coastal locations holding in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds
subside Fri evening into Saturday, but between the well-mixed BL
and increasing high clouds ahead of the next system, went
toward the warmer end of the guidance envelope. Low temps
mainly in the 40s, to near 50 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1. Moderating trend with mainly dry weather and warming
temperatures for Easter Weekend.
2. Rain chances increase Monday into Tuesday, before trending
warmer and drier toward the middle of next week.
Dampening ridging pushing east from the plains in the wake of
our midweek system will combine to provide NW flow pattern
aloft through the weekend. This portends a mainly dry period to
start with increasing clouds as weak disturbances to pass
through from time to time late Saturday into early next week.
The first of these systems slides by to our north
Saturday/Saturday night, bringing some increasing clouds across
northern sections. Some lingering moisture may build up against
the mountains ahead of a second disturbance moving out of the
Ohio River valley on Easter Sunday. A shower or two may try to
push into our far northwest CWA NW of Richmond, but for now
kept the forecast dry for Easter Sunday. Models begin to differ
on the overall driving force of our weather pattern to start
the new work week. Both the 12z/27 GFS and ECMWF are showing a
slightly better chance of spotty showers across the area Monday
and Tuesday. However, the ECMWF lifts a warm front north of the
area and drying the region out a bit quicker into Tuesday,
while the GFS is a bit slower to do so. Given that the ECMWF
solution clusters well with EPS and even the GEFS, have gone
closer to the warmer/drier ECMWF solution toward midweek.
Thicknesses steadily climb each day, allowing temperatures to
gradually warm each day Fri-Sunday starting with mid 60s inland
Friday, then jumping to near 70 degrees on Saturday, and low to
mid 70s...to upper 70s possible southern sections on Easter
Sunday. A weak front slides into the area on Monday, but lifting
back north by midweek, allowing temperatures to warm back up
toward the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 115 AM EDT Thursday...
Poor conditions will persist through most of the TAF period.
Terminals are currently bouncing around between LIFR and low-end
MVFR as scattered showers and low CIGs pass through early this
morning. There are even a few flashes of lightning and CBs out
there, though that should remain very isolated to
south/southeast locations. Expect all terminals to drop into
LIFR thresholds as the heavy rain moves in after 08-10Z. VIS
restrictions to 2-3SM will be likely for most of the day. RIC
and points west will start to break out of the heavier rain
after mid-day, though think RIC will remain on edge of SHRA into
the afternoon. Northerly breezes will increase after 15Z with
some gusts to 22kt possible. Heavy rain will begin to move
offshore after 00Z, with CIGs/VIS improving at terminals from
west to east this evening. Expect skies to become mostly clear
tonight.
Outlook: Northwesterly winds are expected to become gusty areawide
on Friday. VFR conditions will prevail Friday and into the weekend,
though some light showers are possible across the north on Saturday
and for most of the area on Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
As of 1030 PM EDT Wednesday...
Update: A Gale Watch has been added for the remaining Chesapeake
Bay zones late Thursday aftn into Thursday night. SCAs have been
issued for the Rappahannock, York, and James Rivers along with
the Currituck Sound Thursday aftn into Thursday night.
Previous Discussion...
Weak high pressure is noted over the Ches Bay leading to light winds
across the N and easterly/onshore winds 10-15 kt over the S. Waves
are 1-2 ft with 2-3 ft at the mouth of the bay. Seas offshore
continue to slowly diminish and are running 4-6 ft, with the highest
values across the southern zones where onshore flow is stronger.
SCA headlines continue for the Atlantic coastal waters due to
lingering seas. 12z guidance shows a more shallow track of low
pressure Thursday night and early Friday which results in the
strongest winds across the southern waters Thursday night with some
increase expected farther north as the low pulls away Friday
morning. NNW winds strengthen through the day tomorrow with 20-25 kt
and gusts to 30-35 kt likely by early evening. Winds peak late
Thursday night with gusts to 40 kt offshore. The consensus of the
12z guidance argues for upgrading the southern coastal waters to a
Gale Warning with this forecast package. Will maintain Gale Watches
for the remaining offshore zones as well as the mouth of the bay
from Thursday afternoon into early Friday due to lower confidence
and later timing of potential gale conditions. While seas from Cape
Charles southward may briefly fall below SCA thresholds tonight,
opted to extend the SCA headlines until the start of the Gale
Warning as seas are expected to build once again during the day
Thursday. For the offshore zones north of Cape Charles, SCAs
currently end late tonight but these may need to be extended as well
depending on buoy observations. Winds decrease quickly after sunrise
on Friday with most areas falling below 20 kt by the afternoon. Seas
will quickly diminish in the wester/offshore flow on Friday but will
take some time to fall below 5 ft. The weekend into early next week
will be much improved with high pressure dominating the local
weather pattern.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 335 PM EDT Wednesday...
Heavy rainfall will develop and persist across (mainly) the
eastern half of area tonight through Thursday morning. A range
of 1.5 to 3.5 inches of rain is expected, with the highest
amounts across southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina,
where a Flood Watch remains in effect. This could create some
flooding issues, especially in urban areas and poor drainage
spots on Thursday. Additionally, river forecasts are indicating
levels may rise into minor flooding stage across portions of the
Nottoway River, Meherrin River, and Cashie River Friday and
into the weekend as a result of the heavy rainfall.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 1030 PM EDT Wednesday...
A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for the Bay-side of
the MD Eastern Shore, the southern shore of the tidal Potomac,
the western shore of the Bay from the mouth of the Rappahannock
to Smith Point, and the tidal Rappahannock. Tidal anomalies have
been slow and another round of nuisance to borderline minor
flooding is possible.
Previous Discussion...
Tidal anomalies continue to linger around 2 ft despite ebb
tides dominating at the mouth of the bay. Opted to upgrade the
previous coastal flood statements to Coastal Flood Advisories
for the tidal Potomac and bay side portions of the MD Eastern
Shore as locally minor tidal flooding is forecast this
afternoon/evening. The subsequent high tide cycle may also reach
minor flood thresholds at Bishop`s Head but will hold of on
extending the advisory with anomalies expect to continue falling
off.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None.
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ087>090-092-093-
095>098-523>525.
MARINE...Gale Watch from this afternoon through Friday morning for
ANZ630>632.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
Friday for ANZ633-638.
Gale Watch from this afternoon through Friday morning for
ANZ634-650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
Friday for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
ANZ650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656-
658.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Friday for
ANZ656-658.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SW
SHORT TERM...MAM/JKP
LONG TERM...MAM/JKP
AVIATION...JKP
MARINE...AJZ/RHR
HYDROLOGY...JKP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJZ