Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 221050 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 650 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Fair but chilly conditions are expected through the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible from time to time as disturbances in the upper levels of the atmosphere move over the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The 6 am surface analysis shows the coastal low centered about 150 miles southeast of Chatham MA with pressure falls occurring it its northeast. The storm will move northeastward and is expected to reach Nova Scotia by this evening. Guidance indicates some weak ridging aloft should be induced across the area ahead of the next short wave as it moves across the Great Lakes region. Cloud cover will gradually decrease across the area today especially this afternoon. Winds will become brisk and gusty in the cyclonic flow with good mixing. Temperatures will continue to run below normal by around 5 degrees.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... In the wake of the departing coastal storm northern stream short waves will maintain a trough over the Northeastern United States. While at the surface, high pressure from over Hudson Bay will drift southeastward across eastern Canada while building southward across the region. This result in cool, below normal daytime temperatures along with isolated to scattered showers at times. Highs Friday and Saturday will be mainly in the 30s with some lower 40s in the mid Hudson Valley and upper 20s across the higher terrain of the western Adirondacks, eastern Catskills and southern Green Mountains. Nighttime lows will be in the teens to mid 20s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An sharp upper level trough will be moving from New England eastward into the western Atlantic for Sunday. With cyclonic flow around this feature, there may be a few passing snow showers or flurries during the day on Sunday (especially across western New England), but moisture is very limited, so coverage will be rather low. Little to no accumulation is expected. Highs will continue to be below normal with highs mainly in the 30s. Behind this departing trough, upper level ridging will finally build into the area for the start of the week. Despite the building heights, it probably won`t get too warm, as a very strong high pressure area across eastern Canada allows for a persistent northeast flow across the region for Monday and Tuesday. Highs should moderate back into the 40s and lows will be in the 20s with dry conditions and a partly to mostly clear sky. The next storm system looks to approach the region from the west for the middle of the week. Although the models don`t agree on the exact timing or track, some light precipitation (mainly in the form of rain) looks to move from west to east across the region thanks to a period of warm advection. Will just go with slight chc to chc POPs for Tuesday night through Wednesday night with p-type based of the diurnal temp curve for now. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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During the day today, VFR conditions will be in place for all sites behind a departing coastal storm. With a strong pressure pressure gradient in place, NW winds will continue to be around 10-15 kts, with some higher gusts possible, especially at KALB. Ceilings will generally be bkn-ovc with mid or high level clouds around 15 kft, although some sct-bkn cigs around 3500-4000 ft are possible too, especially at KALB/KPOU. Some of these lower clouds around 3500-4000 ft will increase overnight, especially at KALB/KGFL, thanks to an approaching upper level disturbance from the northwest, but it should continue to remain VFR. Northwest winds should decrease to about 5 kts for all sites. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... Fair but chilly conditions are expected through the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible from time to time as disturbances in the upper levels of the atmosphere move over the region. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least early next week. As mainly fair weather is expected. Isolated to scattered showers are possible at times with little to no measurable precipitation expected. A slow diurnal snowmelt will occur over the next several days, with temperatures above freezing during the day and below freezing at night. There will be little impact on the waterways with minimal, if any, rises. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.