Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 251426 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1026 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Amplifying high pressure in southeast Canada will make for dry, mostly sunny conditions today. Tranquil weather will persist into Tuesday, though clouds will begin to stream into the region in advance of a series of disturbances. Scattered showers are then expected for the middle portion of the week before dry conditions return for the beginning of the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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.UPDATE...As of 1025 AM EDT, surface high pressure, centered over Atlantic Canada, continues to nose southward across the region. A vertically stacked upper-level low is located across the western Atlantic Ocean. Some high cirrus along the western periphery of the ocean low have moved into portions of far eastern New York and western New England. Subsidence with the high overhead will prevent these high clouds from expanding much more westward today. Therefore, sunny conditions are expected across most of the region today with mostly sunny conditions for areas east of the Hudson River. A well-mixed environment and plenty of radiation underneath a strong, late-March sun angle will allow temperatures to rise into the 40s across most of the region with lower 50s across portions of the mid-Hudson Valley and upper 30s across the higher elevations. Rapid melting of snow/ice will continue throughout the day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Atmospheric heights continue to decrease across the area Monday night into Tuesday as the aforementioned high pressure pushes further into the Canadian Maritimes and the low still well to our west in the Midwest continues its slow crawl north and east. Dry, mainly clear conditions will, however, persist tonight into Tuesday morning with low temperatures falling into the 20s to 30. Tuesday morning will see clouds begin to increase as an inverted trough forms and nears the Long Island and New England Coasts in response to the cycling low in the Atlantic. Easterly to southeasterly flow will advect moisture into the region and clouds will increase from the southeast to northwest to start. However, clouds will also begin to stream into the region from west to east in response to the nearing upper-level trough associated with the aforementioned Midwest low. Conditions will remain mostly dry Tuesday despite the increasing clouds, though some light, scattered showers are possible in western New England due to the influence of the adjacent inverted trough off the Atlantic. High temperatures were a bit of a challenge for Tuesday as there is some uncertainty as to just how fast clouds will overspread the region. However, with breaks of sun likely through Tuesday afternoon, temperatures look to reach the mid 40s to low 50s outside of western New England where a faster obstruction to solar radiation will only allow temperatures to rise into the upper 30s to low/mid 40s. Scattered showers in response to the nearing upper-level trough and cold front associated with the northeast-propagating low will begin overnight Tuesday and last through Wednesday night. All showers look to be relatively light and scattered in nature as moisture transport and forcing looks to be relatively weak. Though precipitation type should primarily be rain across the region due to warm antecedent temperatures, it is possible that showers beginning in the Southern Greens and Berkshires late Tuesday evening/Tuesday night could begin as freezing drizzle. Model soundings show a broad warm nose that would be favorable for such an outcome. However, with precipitation expected to be light, and temperatures moderating quickly after daybreak Wednesday leading to a brief window of duration, little accretion is expected.Showers will gradually taper off by early Thursday morning as the front begins to exit the region. High temperatures Wednesday will reach the upper 40s to mid 50s with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Main focus for the long term period remains on the Thursday - Friday period when a maturing northern stream closed low from the Upper Midwest escapes into Ontario with its associated cold front slowly progressing eastward. Broad ridging extending from the East Coast into the western Atlantic will maintain southwest flow and a milder air mass over the Northeast a head of the boundary into Thursday. Meanwhile, a southern stream shortwave digging into the Gulf Coast States could start to phase with the northern stream closed low Thursday into Thursday night. The general model consensus is in good agreement on this general evolution but guidance differs on the amplification of the southern stream shortwave and resulting cyclogenesis that may ensue along the slow moving cold front. Should the southern stream shortwave strengthen quickly, it may take on a negative tilt and thus result in rather rapid cyclogenesis along the front just off the East Coast. Given that the front is slow moving, it may be close enough to the coast that the precipitation shield associated with the developing coastal low may extent into part of eastern NY and western New England. On the other hand, if cyclogenesis is slower to occur, the front would have more time to escape off the coast and the ensuing coastal low would be farther off shore and thus mainly impact New England. While there are differences on the overall track and areas that may be impacted by any coastal development, guidance is in good agreement that the strong southwesterly flow ahead of the boundary would provide a strong moisture fetch from the Gulf of Mexico. Thus, the coastal low would focus and direct this reservoir of moisture northward along the boundary and thus present yet another opportunity for widespread precipitation. Luckily, latest trends show precipitation occurring on the warm side of the boundary, favoring mainly rain. Latest ensemble trends have wobbled back and forth on the western extent of the precipitation shield with the 00 UTC runs trending back west compared to the 18 UTC runs. Even still, the highest probabilities for greater than 0.10" of precipitation reside south and east of the Capital District and favor western New England. Therefore, we maintain likely POPs in Berkshire and Litchfield County as well as parts of southern VT, the central/southern Taconics and the mid-Hudson Valley and trended POPs downward heading north and west on Thursday. The moisture gradient along the boundary would likely tighten from the coastal low leading to a tight west to east QPF gradient. The ensembles are picking up on this showing a tight gradient along the probability contours. This would make for a challenging POP and QPF forecast. By Friday, the majority of the precipitation from the coastal low should escape mainly to our east with a northwest wind shift supporting cold air advection with the true cold air mass overspreading the Northeast. Latest guidance suggests the coastal low could deepen rapidly off the New England coast, leading to a tightening sfc pressure gradient over the Northeast resulting in breezy conditions. Within this pattern change, temperatures should trend cooler compared to Thursday with the breezy winds making it feel even cooler. We will then monitor an approaching warm front for the weekend that may reside mainly to our south over the mid-Atlantic as a much warmer air mass builds over the southern tier of the country. Weak shortwaves riding along this warm front and the northern periphery of broad ridging would support additional opportunities for precipitation. Still much uncertainty on the exact position and timing of any shortwave so maintained slight chance POPs for the weekend forecast. Temperatures generally remain near normal. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure dominating the Northeast today will support VFR conditions at all TAF sites through 06 UTC Tuesday with SKC conditions at ALB, GFL and POU today. Just some innocuous cirrus clouds spilling into PSF. For tonight, low stratus clouds from the Atlantic will likely push inland towards 06 - 12 UTC TUE for PSF and POU and thus introduced MVFR ceilings in the next TAF update. Light and variable winds early this morning will shift out of the east by 13 - 16 UTC at all TAF sites with sustained winds reaching 5-9kts and gusts up to 15kts. Winds will subside once we lose daytime heating towards 01 - 04 UTC Tuesday with winds likely lingering at PSF the latest. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY...
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River flows will continue to recede throughout the day. Flood Warnings for minor flooding continue only for Falls Village and Stevenson Dam on the Housatonic as of 10 AM EDT. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gant NEAR TERM...Gant/Rathbun SHORT TERM...Gant LONG TERM...Speciale AVIATION...Speciale HYDROLOGY...Rathbun

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