Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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035 FXUS61 KALY 231646 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 1246 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Fair conditions are expected through the weekend with isolated to widely scattered showers possible from time to time as disturbances in the upper levels of the atmosphere move over the region. The best chances for showers will be this afternoon and again Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 935 AM EDT, mostly cloudy skies prevail across much of the region, with a mid and high level cloud deck in place. These clouds seem to be associated with mid/upper level forcing associated with the compact shortwave swirling southeast from southwest Ontario toward west central PA, as evidenced by latest WV satellite imagery. Despite increased forcing, low level of the atmosphere remain quite dry. The combination of forcing, and diurnally induced instability should allow isolated to scattered snow showers to develop later this morning through the afternoon, with best chances across higher terrain. In valley areas, the drier low level air may allow for more virga/fallstreaks, with perhaps some sprinkles/graupel or flurries at times. Temperatures will run below normal by around 5 degrees with highs from the mid 30s to mid 40s, warmest in valley areas south of Albany, with upper 20s to mid 30s across the highest terrain above 2500 feet in the western Adirondacks, eastern Catskills and southern Green Mountains. Although today should be less breezy overall compared to the last two days, there still could be some gusts up to 20-25 mph, particularly within or near any showers of rain/snow this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Another short wave will approach Saturday afternoon and move across the region Saturday night bringing some widespread chances for isolated showers to the area. However, at the surface high pressure shifting across eastern Canada will build in taking a firm hold on the area Sunday into Sunday night. It will be chilly over the weekend with below normal temperatures especially on Saturday by 10 to 15 degrees with departures of 5 to 10 degrees on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Narrow ridge aloft will be in place to start the extended period for Monday and Tuesday, with strong high pressure anchored over southeastern Canada. With a northeast flow in place, it should be dry with just some scattered clouds and daytime temperatures mainly in the 40s. The ridge will start to break down by mid-week as a storm system approaches from the west. There are still some timing differences in the models and ensembles but some light precip (mainly in the form of rain) look to arrive from the west thanks to a period of warm advection between Tuesday night and Wednesday. Overnight lows will generally be in the 30s, with highs on Wednesday in the 40s. Although the storm`s cold front looks to cross the region by Thursday (with a few additional rain showers), another system will be quick on its tails for the end of the week, with another round of rainfall. Temperatures will be near normal to end the week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Flying conditions are currently VFR across the region with just some sct-bkn high and mid level clouds in place. The cyclonic flow around a passing upper level disturbance may allow for a light flurry or sprinkle in the afternoon or evening, but coverage looks fairly isolated due to limited moisture. Will address with just a VCSH for now at KPSF, where best chance should be, although can not rule out anywhere between roughly 20Z/Fri-05Z/Sat. Most sites should remain VFR for most of the time, although cannot totally rule out a brief reduction within any snow shower. Otherwise, bkn cigs should lower to 5000-7000 FT AGL this afternoon, persisting through Saturday morning. Northwest winds will average 5-10 KT, with some gusts of 15-20 KT possible this afternoon at KALB and KPSF. Outlook... Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fair conditions are expected through the weekend with isolated to widely scattered showers possible from time to time as disturbances in the upper levels of the atmosphere move over the region. The best chances for showers will be this afternoon and again Saturday night. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least early next week, as mainly fair weather is expected. Isolated to scattered snow showers are possible at times with little to no measurable precipitation expected. A slow diurnal snowmelt will occur over the next several days, with temperatures above freezing during the day and below freezing at night. There will be little impact on the waterways with minimal, if any, rises. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL NEAR TERM...IAA/KL SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis/KL FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.