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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 211754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
154 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool, dry and breezy conditions are expected today with
a mix of sun and clouds this afternoon.  After a chilly night,
another cool, breezy and dry day is expected for Monday with a
mostly sunny sky.  It will slightly milder on Tuesday with
increasing clouds, before a cold front returns some rain to the
region for Tuesday night into Wednesday, with colder weather
returning for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper cold pool and lingering upper energy along with some
moisture off the Great Lakes resulting in widespread clouds.
There are a few sprinkles in western and northern areas.
Temperatures will warm another few degrees at best through this
afternoon. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s, with around 40
southern Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
With the trough axis pushing eastward and surface high pressure
building into the area, clouds will decrease this evening and
winds will diminish as well. This should allow for a mostly
clear and chilly night for tonight, with lows in the 30s (some
20s across the high terrain).

Another cool day is expected for Monday, as temps aloft still
remain fairly chilly. Highs will once again be mainly in the 50s
for valley areas, with 40s again for the high terrain. However,
the difference from Sunday will be that high pressure overhead
will allow for more sunshine and lighter winds as well. Surface
dewpoints look a little lower on Monday as well thanks to the
dry low levels expected to be in place.

Monday night will be continued dry and chilly, as high pressure
continues to slowly slide eastward and push offshore for
Tuesday. Lows will once again be in the 20s and 30s on Monday
night with a mostly clear sky. After a sunny start on Tuesday,
sky cover will be increasing through the day as the next system
starts to approach from the west. Winds will switch to the south
and will begin to pick up by late in the day, as the pressure
gradient starts to increase.

Some light rain will be spreading towards the area from the west
on Tuesday night. It may take until the late night hours for the
rain to reach the Hudson Valley and points eastward. Otherwise,
it will become cloudy and remain breezy through the overnight
with lows in the 40s. Any rainfall looks fairly light.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper-level trough and surface low pressure system will continue
to cross the region on Wednesday. The overall upper-level and
surface pattern with this system is becoming more clear in recent
runs. The cold front passage looks to occur during the morning and
early afternoon hours and will bring a period of rainfall to the
region. Precipitation should begin to taper off during the afternoon
and evening hours as the upper trough looks to be more progressive
and quickly depart to the east. A push of cold air will dive in
right behind the cold front and could result in precipitation mixing
with or ending as a brief period of snow, mainly across the higher
terrain, before ending. Most areas will not see any snow
accumulation but localized areas could pick up a very light coating.
High pressure will then bring the return of dry weather for the rest
of the week and into the start of next weekend. Chances for showers
return by late Saturday or Sunday with the approach of a warm front.

Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows
Wednesday and Thursday night in the 20s and 30s. Highs rebound to
the 50s to lower 60s Friday and Saturday with lows Friday night in
the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR flying conditions expected through 18 UTC at all the
terminals.

Widespread mid and upper level clouds today have resulted in
ceilings staying around 5-6kft thanks to a disturbance tracking
across the mid-Atlantic and a secondary cold front slowly
approaching from the Adirondacks. As the secondary cold front
arrives from northwest to southeast this afternoon, winds at
GFL, ALB, and PSF will shift to the northwest by 18 - 20 UTC
and increase up to 20kts before reaching POU closer to 21-22
UTC (although winds will only increase up to 15kts). We included
VCSH at GFL and ALB given a few weak reflectivities showing up
on regional radar mosaic but no change to flight conditions will
occur during any sprinkles.

Clouds clear by 00 - 03 UTC as the winds decrease down to 5kts
or less tonight. Yet another boundary looks to skirt the
terminal by 09 - 12 UTC with increased mid-level clouds and
ceilings around 4-5kft returning to GFL, ALB, and PSF for a
brief window along with winds shifting to the north-northwest
and gusting up to 15-20kts.

Clouds clear by 12 - 14 UTC with VFR conditions continuing.
North-northwest winds become sustained 5-10kts with gusts up to
15kts.


Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and breezy weather will be in place across the region for
today through Tuesday. While temperatures will be on the cool
side for today and tomorrow, valley areas should be back into
the 60s by Tuesday. There will be some cloud cover around for
today, although Monday looks fairly sunny. After a sunny morning
on Tuesday, some clouds will increase by later in the day.

RH values may be as low as 35 percent during the afternoon
hours today, although there should be a recovery during the
overnight hours. On Monday, RH values could be as low as 25 to
30 percent during the afternoon hours. RH values will again drop
on Tuesday into the 35 to 45 percent range during peak heating.

Winds will be westerly on today and Monday with some gusts up
to 25 mph in the afternoon hours today and up to 20 mph on
Monday. Southerly winds on Tuesday could gust as high as 30 mph
late in the day.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Speciale
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis