Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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805 FXUS61 KALY 300520 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 120 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will be lifting back northward as a warm front overnight with spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms. A stronger disturbance will allow for some additional showers and scattered thunderstorms for later Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Drier weather will return for Wednesday with seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Showers and thunderstorms from the western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks to Lake George Saratoga Region building into southern VT. The showers and storms formed along a low level dew point boundary and boundary layer wind shift. The showers and storms will track east through daybreak. A few new showers and isolated thunderstorms could form along the central NY/PA border and track north and east as well toward daybreak. Clouds are spreading north rapidly from the mid Hudson Valley and will cover much of the region by daybreak. The clouds will slow the cooling of temperatures. Lows by daybreak in the lower to mid 50s and around 50 northern areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The upper level ridge that is in place over the eastern CONUS will be shifting eastward and weakening for Tuesday as it heads offshore. Meanwhile, upper level dynamics will be weak, as a disturbance running into the departing ridge heads to the northeast and starts to fall apart. There still will be the surface boundary draped across the region and a weak area of low pressure will be sliding along this front. While Tuesday will start off fairly quiet with just a partly to mostly cloudy sky, the chance for precip will be increasing through the day. CAMs suggest a cluster of showers and t-storms will be accompanying the low pressure area as it slides eastward along the front. The best timing for this for our area looks to be the afternoon and evening hours. There should be enough sun across the entire area for temps in the upper 50s to low 60s, but dewpoints remain fairly low in the 50s and the low- levels should be fairly stable. The better warmth and moisture will remain south and west of the region through the day. At this point, it looks like instability will remain fairly limited, so any thunder looks fairly isolated. There could be some lingering elevated thunder that occurs due to surface-based storms to the west running into our area. Decent lapse rates are in the place aloft, so small hail can`t be totally ruled out, but the stable low levels should help prevent any strong winds from occurring with any storms. PWATs and dewpoints don`t look too high for this time of year, so while some ponding can`t be ruled out, downpours don`t look long/hard enough for bigger flooding issues. This activity could linger into the first part of Tuesday night, but it should be clearing out by the late night hours, with temps in the 40s to low 50s. On Wednesday, mainly drier weather is expected across most of the area. There still could be a few spotty light rain showers (especially northern areas) as an upper level disturbance passes by to the north, but overall it looks drier and more seasonable for the entire area, with highs in the 60s and a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Better clearing is expected for Wed night with lows in the 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Upper level ridging looks to set up across the area for Thursday into Friday. This should allow for mainly dry conditions, with more sun that recent days and mild temps. Have gone with highs in the 60s to low 70s for both days with upper 40s to low 50s at night. Will keep a slight chance in for POPs in case something sneaks around the ridge from the north, but most places should wind up staying dry. Over the weekend, there could be a threat for some showers once again as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. The timing is still somewhat uncertain, but will tend to favor the diurnally favored time periods for any showers. Temps still look fairly mild, with most areas well into the 60s for highs along with a partly cloudy sky. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 06z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions as of 115 AM EDT, with MVFR cigs at POU. Expecting conditions to deteriorate through the next several hours at all TAF sites. An area of showers and thunderstorms looks to impact GFL with MVFR cigs and MVFR to IFR vsbys through around 8z. These showers should remain north of the other TAF sites, but VFR conditions trend to MVFR within the next few hours as low clouds develop. Some pockets of IFR cigs are also possible, and have mainly wrapped this into tempo groups, except at PSF where confidence is high enough to include prevailing IFR. Another round of showers and possibly an embedded thunderstorm look to impact GFL/ALB/PSF this morning for a few hours between 10 and 15z, and have indicated borderline MVFR/IFR vsbys and cigs during this batch of showers. Once the showers move out between 13-15z, mainly dry conditions and VFR vsbys expected through late this afternoon. Cigs should trend towards low-end VFR at ALB/GFL this afternoon but likely remain MVFR at POU/PSF. Then, late this afternoon and evening, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected. Have used prob30 groups to highlight this threat. Will likely see MVFR cigs and MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys with this line of showers/storms. Once these showers/storms move to the east, we will likely see MVFR and possibly IFR conditions linger through at least the end of the TAF period. Winds will be from the east/northeast at around 5 kt through early this morning, then switch to the southeast at 5-10 kt with some gusts of 15-20 kt from mid-morning through this evening. Behind the line of showers and storms this evening, winds remain southeasterly at 5-10 kt at ALB and PSF and become light and variable at GFL/POU. Outlook... Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... Mainly dry weather will continue through the evening hours. Overnight, some spotty showers are possible along a stalled boundary across southern areas and this front will be slowly heading back northward as a warm front. A stray thunderstorm can`t be ruled out overnight along this front, but it should be fairly isolated. After a dry start to Tuesday, more showers and thunderstorms are expected by later in the day as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. The low level flow out of the south will bring in plenty of moisture into the region ahead of the boundary, although dewpoints and PWATs won`t be overly excessive for this time of year. Still, the strong forcing should allow for a fairly widespread areas of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these showers and thunderstorms may contain heavy downpours, which could lead to ponding of water in urban or low lying areas. WPC has placed much of the region within a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall during this period. Overall, rainfall amounts will generally be under an inch and no flooding of main stem rivers is expected. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Wasula NEAR TERM...NAS SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Main HYDROLOGY...Frugis