-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 181940
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
340 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle south along the New England coast,
providing a cool and damp onshore flow, bringing continued
occasional showers and some drizzle into this evening. After a
brief break tonight into Friday morning, additional showers are
likely Friday afternoon and night associated with a cold frontal
passage. Cool and breezy conditions return for the upcoming
weekend, with a few passing showers possible Saturday, and dry
conditions for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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An occluded front will basically weaken in place across the
region late this afternoon into evening as it encounters a
small area of high pressure building south along the ME/MA
coast. However, a moist easterly onshore flow associated with
the high will keep plenty of clouds around with isolated to
scattered light showers and/or patchy drizzle continuing into
this evening. Ridging aloft should provide dry conditions
overnight, but with clouds likely lingering due to moisture
trapped beneath an inversion. Lows will range from the mid/upper
30s in the mountains to around 40 in the valleys.

A few breaks of sunshine are possible early Fri with the ridge
axis aloft over the area, but skies should remain mostly cloudy
overall. The ridge axis then shifts east of our area by Friday
afternoon, as a cold front starts to approach from the west.
Later Fri afternoon into Fri evening, the cold front will bring
widespread showers north/west of the Capital District, becoming
more scattered from Albany south/east with a low level S-SW
flow resulting in some downsloping. Rainfall amounts will be
light with < 0.25" expected. Prior to the cold front arriving,
high temperatures should reach the upper 50s to lower 60s in
lower elevations and lower/mid 50s in the higher terrain.
Southerly winds will increase ahead of the front, with gusts of
20-30 mph developing.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Guidance in good agreement indicating the cold front passing
through from west to east Friday evening into Fri night. Mainly
isolated to scattered showers will occur along the front, with
dry conditions developing in its wake. It will take much of the
night for the front to clear the entire area. With mostly cloudy
skies and a developing westerly breeze behind the front, low
temperatures will be held up a bit despite cold advection
ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday starts out dry with surface ridging extending
north/east from the Ohio Valley/mid Atlantic region. Some
sunshine is expected during the morning to early afternoon,
which should help boost temperatures into the upper 50s/lower
60s in the valleys. Then, a fairly potent upper level short
wave approaching from the Great Lakes will move across the
region Sat afternoon into early Sat evening. This disturbance
will bring increasing clouds and widely scattered showers, along
with gusty westerly winds around 25-35 mph developing. Some
snow flakes could mix in across the higher terrain.

Drying/clearing will quickly take place Sat night in wake of
the disturbance, with surface ridging extending north/east into
our area. Lows will be colder than recent nights, with upper 20s
to around 30 expected in the higher terrain and lower/mid 30s
in the lower elevations. There will remain a westerly breeze,
but winds will not be as gusty as during the day.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sunday looks to be dry and cool with zonal flow aloft and weak
surface ridging. Some instability clouds will likely develop,
but there still should be plenty of breaks through the day. It
will be breezy as well, with W-NW winds gusting 20-30 mph at
times. Highs will be slightly below normal, with mid/upper 40s
in the higher terrain and mid/upper 50s in lower elevations.

Dry conditions and moderating temperatures should occur on
Monday, with a small area of high pressure in place. Tuesday
should start out dry with a mild southerly flow developing ahead
of a cyclone approaching from the Midwest. Chances for showers
will increase later in the day into Tue evening as this system
gets closer. There are model differences with regards to the
track/evolution so will mention mainly chance to likely PoPs for
now Tue night through Wed as the system moves across our
region.

A much colder air mass then builds in Wed night into Thu with
NW and potentially strong cold advection developing. Mainly
dry/breezy conditions are expected, with below normal
temperatures.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Light showers and drizzle have continued periodically
throughout the morning and into early this afternoon with
adjacent low pressure encroaching further upon the region.
Conditions have varied between VFR and MVFR throughout the day
with ceilings varying in height. However, as some dry air moves
in aloft, ceiling heights should gradually rise into persistent
VFR levels. In fact, KALB and KGFL have already come up into VFR
thresholds. However, heights could continue to vary here as
light showers and drizzle remain in the vicinity.

Throughout the remainder of the afternoon and into tonight,
primarily dry conditions should persist with latest guidance
hinting at shower/drizzle activity continuing to taper off.
Ceilings should maintain VFR heights by 20z this afternoon to
00z tonight with primarily dry conditions persisting. Winds
throughout the period will be light and variable with speeds of
2-5 kt.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Gant