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000
FXUS64 KAMA 232056 CCA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
356 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Cold front has moved through the area, and with the surface low to
the south, we can expect some return easterly flow tonight with low
clouds and possibly some drizzle in some areas.  Given the upper
trough passage over the Great Lakes area, we can expect cooler air
aloft to linger over the low cloud deck, setting up a pretty strong
low level inversion for tonight and again tomorrow.  The main focus
for the next couple of nights is how much low level moisture return
we will get, and the depth of the moisture.  As long as the moisture
return stays below the top of the inversion, we`ll just have low
clouds and drizzle, but should moisture reach the top of the
inversion, there will be about 2000-3000 J/kg of uncapped CAPE
available leading to elevated severe storms.  This is very
conditional for tonight and confidence is not high enough, as most
models suggest that the moisture will not be ample enough.  The main
concern for the moisture tonight will be across the eastern
Panhandles.  Tomorrow night we can expect more expansive low level
moisture across the Panhandles and cooler air aloft will still be
lingering. This will certainly be a repeat setup, if the cap can be
broken for overnight elevated severe weather and the primary threat
would be hail.  Overall confidence is low (about 20 to 30 percent)
in the overnight thunderstorms will occur tonight and/or tomorrow,
but should storms trigger, they will likely be severe.

Given the likely cloud cover all day tomorrow, highs in the upper
50s to lower 60s would certainly be possible. Most guidance is
trying to break out some of these clouds for at least a period of
time to warm us up into the 70s, but not sure that`s how things will
play out. Highs will be blended cooler, but confidence is still low
on how they will play out.

Upper level trough will approach the Panhandle on Thursday with a
pretty stout dryline setup, most likely at the Amarillo to Guymon
line. Assuming no overnight convection occurs, then the atmosphere
east of the dryline will be primed for severe storms, most likely
discrete supercells capable of all hazards. Along and west of the
dryline, there appears to be enough moisture and instability to get
some high based storms, where gusty winds and dry lightning would be
the main threat. Given the ample shear, high CAPE and overall forcing
associated with this severe threat, hail up to baseballs (2.75"),
and wind gusts up to 70 mph look to be reasonable, as well as very
high 0-1 and 0-3km SRH values would support the potential for
isolated strong tornadoes.

West of the dryline we can expect elevated to critical Fire Weather
conditions as drier and warmer air will be in place.  As the system
pushes through Thursday night into Friday we can expect clearing
skies, lighter winds, and temperatures to cool into the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Have stuck with the NBM values for the forecast through the
extended period. With Fri and Sat seeing above average
temperatures in the 80s, then a weak frontal boundary on Sun
dropping daytime temps back in upper 60s to 70s. The weather may
be somewhat quiet over the weekend depending on the position of a
dryline on Sat. If the dryline retreats back west some
shower/thunderstorms may be possible primarily across the eastern
combined Panhandles.

Going into Fri an H5 closed low will have pushed off to the north
northeast with a dryline exiting the Panhandles in the late AM
hours. As the dryline exits the area, SW surface winds in the 20
to 30 mph range with dry air at the surface continuing to overtake
the combined Panhandles. This will bring the potential for some
elevated to possibly critical fire weather conditions. At the
same time a subsequent low pressure will be digging south over
the western CONUS. This low is expected to become closed at H5
over the Four Corners Region by Sat afternoon. This low is progged
to bring an H5 jet maxima around 80 kts over the FA Sat
afternoon and potentially bring some lift to the area to help
with storms. However, this will all depend on the dryline
retreating back into the area with the return of low level
moisture. The NBM has brought some slight chance PoPs back into
the eastern most counties in the FA Sat afternoon/evening. The NBM
has also brought in slight chance PoPs across portions of the OK
Panhandle with higher PoPs across western KS into eastern CO. This
will all depend on the track of the H5 low bringing wrap around
moisture into the area. The GFS and EC keep the OK Panhandle dry
with a more northerly track of the low. Again, on Sat southwest
winds in the 20 to 30 mph range and RH values dropping to lower to
mid teens in the west may pose an elevated to critical fire
weather day, especially for areas that are not seeing greenup in
the vegetation.

Sunday, a weak cold front is progged to bring northerly winds
with slightly cooler temps for the afternoon. Even potentially
some overnight lows in the upper 30s for the northwestern third of
the combined Panhandles going into Mon morning. Mon afternoon
temps are progged to return back into the lower 80s.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated through tonight. MVFR ceilings will
work in to KAMA around 12z and KDHT around 14z. There may be some
minor visibility restrictions with the MVFR ceilings, but
confidence is too low at this time to include in the TAFs.
Otherwise, 15-25 kt northerly winds are expected this afternoon,
tapering off to 5-10 kts tonight and tomorrow morning out of the
east changing gradually to southeast.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                50  69  54  85 /  10  10  20  20
Beaver OK                  46  66  48  85 /  20  20  30  40
Boise City OK              43  68  49  85 /  10  10  10  10
Borger TX                  51  72  55  89 /  20  10  20  30
Boys Ranch TX              50  74  53  89 /  10  10  20  10
Canyon TX                  50  72  54  86 /  10  10  20  10
Clarendon TX               52  66  54  82 /  10  20  20  30
Dalhart TX                 44  71  49  85 /  10  10   0  10
Guymon OK                  44  66  48  86 /  20  10  20  20
Hereford TX                50  75  55  87 /  10  10  10  10
Lipscomb TX                49  66  51  82 /  20  20  30  40
Pampa TX                   51  66  53  82 /  20  10  20  30
Shamrock TX                52  65  53  80 /  20  20  20  40
Wellington TX              54  67  55  80 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...52