585
FXUS61 KAKQ 271729
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
129 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure offshore moves south into early next week with a ridge
building over the area. Well above normal temperatures are expected
through next week. An unsettled pattern sets up from Tuesday into
next weekend with multiple chances for showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 AM EDT Saturday...

~1035mb high pressure was centered from Long Island to Cape Cod
late this morning, with ridging extending SW into VA and the
Carolinas. Skies are mostly cloudy to overcast with scattered
showers along the I-95 Corridor from RIC northward as a warm
front slowly approaches from the south. Showers will continue to
be possible today across N and NE portions of the FA, with some
clearing expected later today west of I-95. Not expecting more
than a few hundredths of an inch of rain. Rain chances end by
evening. Temps will not get out of the upper 50s-60s from
Louisa County to the Nrn Neck/Eastern Shore where cloud cover
will be thickest, while it should get into the 70s in most areas
south of I-64/west of I-95. Lows tonight in the upper 40s NE
with low-mid 50s elsewhere as winds become S-SSW as the warm
front crosses the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

A ridge builds over the area into early next week with a warmup
expected as winds become SW. Dry with increasing humidity. Highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s Sun and mid to upper 80s Mon. A few
locations may reach 90F on Mon with NBM 75th percentile showing
~90F. Lows in the upper 50s SW to lower 60s NE Sun and Mon
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

The ridge lingers over the E CONUS next week with well above normal
temps expected. Highs in the mid-upper 80s Tue with the NBM 75th
percentile showing the potential for 90F in a few locations.
Trending cooler along the coast from mid-late week due to onshore
flow as a backdoor cold front moves in Wed afternoon as high
pressure slides off the coast. As such, highs in the mid 80s inland
and 70s along the coast are expected Wed and Thu. Highs may reach
the lower 80s along the VA coast on Fri with 70s across the Eastern
Shore. Highs Sat in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows remain mild
through the week in the mid 50s to lower 60s each night.

Next week will not only "feel" Summer-like due to warm temperatures
but also in the sense that an unsettled pattern develops from Tue-
Sat with multiple chances for showers/storms. Several shortwaves
move through the area during this time, however, global models
disagree with timing for each of these subtle features. As such,
have maintained NBM PoPs. Tue could feature some isolated to
scattered storms, but models are not very excited about convection.
Therefore, have 25-30% PoPs across the far W portions of the FA with
<20% PoPs elsewhere. Confidence is low in any convection Wed and Thu
with only a slight chance <20% for any convection. Fri appears to be
the greatest chance for showers/storms with PoPs of 35-45% W and 30-
40% E. A cold front approaches the area Sat with additional
showers/storms possible (30-35% PoPs).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/27 TAF period. BKN-OVC
CIGs around 5000ft AGL will exit the area this evening-tonight,
with clear skies outside of SCT mid/high clouds expected during the
remainder of the period. Cannot completely rule out a few light
showers making it to RIC or SBY during the remainder this
afternoon but confidence is too low to reflect in TAFs (and even
if RIC/SBY see showers...no flight restrictions are expected).
ESE/SE winds of ~10 kt become S then SSW tonight-Sun AM as a
warm front crosses the area.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals from
Sun through at least Tue AM.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...

Early this morning, strong ~1033mb high pressure remains centered
just off the New England coast. Winds are generally out of the east
and range from 10 to 15 knots with a few locally higher gusts. Seas
continue to diminish and now range from 3 to 4 feet. Although seas
may approach 5 feet out 20 nm/south of the VA/NC border, will allow
the SCA to end as scheduled with seas expected to diminish further
over the next few hours.

Onshore winds of 10-15kt continue today into tonight as high
pressure is slowly pushed offshore. Sunday into early next week,
high pressure moves further offshore and gets pushed S. With this
movement, winds become southerly (still at 10-15kt) Sunday through
Tuesday. During this period, seas will be 3-4ft and waves 1-2ft. A
front approaches the waters late Tuesday into early Wednesday with
winds briefly becoming NW and then SE behind the front (winds still
~10kt).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...ERI/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AJB