863
FNUS71 KAKQ 020849
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Plum Creek...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
449 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry and warm weather will prevail today high pressure
builds across the region with afternoon min RH values around 40%. A
very light SW wind in the morning will become 5 to 10 mph during
the afternoon. A backdoor front drops across the region on Friday,
with rain chances increasing Saturday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 10 mph shifting to the west 12
                    to 14 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (54700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................9 early in the morning increasing to 73 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........27  15  4   4   4   4   5   5   6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............69  74  78  82  84  86  86  86  85
RH..............76  66  58  49  43  39  39  39  40
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   6   7   8   8   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.8   11  13  13  14  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.6 2.2 3.3 4.4 5.6 5.1 4.7 4.3
Transp wind dir.S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.7   8   9   10  10  12  13  13  14
LVORI...........4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............9   17  25  40  55  70  72  73  69
Haines index....3   4   4   4   5   5   5   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6   11  17  28  40  54  55  54  50
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming east 5 to 6 mph
                    after 3 am.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 13 mph decreasing to 1 to 3 mph
                    overnight, then shifting to the northwest
                    around 2 mph after 3 am shifting to the
                    northeast after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (31800 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................45 early in the evening decreasing to 0 late in
                    the night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........5   5   4   7   10  13  17  21  25  29  34  38
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............83  79  75  72  69  68  67  66  65  64  62  61
RH..............43  50  58  64  70  73  75  75  78  78  81  81
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   E   NE  E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..8   7   6   5   5   4   4   3   3   4   5   6
20 FT wind gust.14  12  11  8   8   6   6   5   5   6   8   11
Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 1.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  N   NE
Transp wind spd.13  10  8   7   6   5   3   1   1   2   5   7
LVORI...........1   2   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   5   5
ADI.............45  7   4   3   3   2   1   1   0   1   2   3
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..32  15  3   3   2   2   1   1   0   1   2   3
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 18 mph increasing to 18 to 21 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (41200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................7 early in the morning increasing to 56 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........37     35     38     42     46     49
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............61     63     67     68     69     66
RH..............78     65     59     59     55     58
20 ft wind......E 7    E 9    E 10   E 11   E 12   E 12
20 ft wind gust.13     15     18     19     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)....700    1200   1800   2200   2200   2000
Transport wind..E 10   E 17   E 17   E 18   E 21   E 20
LVORI...........4      2      1      1      1      1
ADI.............7      27     39     47     56     49
Haines index....3      2      2      2      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..7      18     27     34     41     35
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...BUTNER
Requested by...Gabriel Cahalan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413004.0/AKQ
.DELDT 05/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL gcahalan@tnc.org