268
FNUS71 KAKQ 020819
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Dowdy RX Burn...VDOF
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
419 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry and warm weather will prevail today high pressure
builds across the region with afternoon min RH values ~35%. A
very light SW wind in the morning will become 5 to 10 mph during
the afternoon. A backdoor front drops across the region on Friday,
with rain chances increasing Saturday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......6900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 2 mph shifting to the southwest 2
                    to 5 mph late in the afternoon, then increasing
                    to around 5 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (27600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................9 to 38.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........7   1   1   2   2   3   3   4
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............76  80  83  85  86  87  87  87
RH..............54  47  41  39  36  35  34  34
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 4.4 5.1 5.9 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.9
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.2   2   2   2   2   3   5   5
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1
ADI.............9   13  14  15  18  25  33  38
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6   9   10  11  13  18  24  28
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (17300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................1 to 25.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........4   4   3   6   9   12  13  14  16  18  21  23
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............86  82  78  75  71  70  68  67  65  64  62  61
RH..............36  43  50  54  61  61  65  70  75  78  81  84
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.8 2.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.5   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   4   4   5   5
ADI.............25  2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Haines index....4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..17  8   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 2 mph becoming 1 to 2 mph
                    early in the morning, then shifting to the west
                    around 1 mph late in the morning shifting to
                    the south early in the afternoon shifting to
                    the southeast 9 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Temp............62     65     75     80     84     83
RH..............84     78     60     52     44     47
20 ft wind......W 3    N 4    NE 4   E 4    SE 5   SE 6
20 ft wind gust.5      6      6      6      8      11
Mix hgt (ft)....500    600    1600   3400   5900   4200
Transport wind..W 2    N 2    NW 1   W 1    SE 3   SE 9
Haines index....5      4      4      4      4      3

$$
Forecaster...BUTNER
Requested by...Cameron Lipscomb
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412992.0/AKQ
.DELDT 05/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL cameron.lipscomb@dof.virginia.gov