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000
FXUS64 KAMA 241724
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

As of early this morning, latest radar and satellite imagery were
watching low-level cloud decks and isolated showers move across
the Panhandles. These clouds as well as showers are expected to be
a continued possibility for today as models see the easterly
surface flow and supporting 850mb WWA funnel low-level moisture
into the Panhandles. By this afternoon it is possible that
dewpoint temperatures will reach into the 50s to low 60s with
actual temperatures sitting around mid 60s to low 70s thanks to
the cloud cover. On another note, the presence of all this
moisture does call into question our chances of thunderstorms and
severe thunderstorms. At this time, thunderstorm development is
going to be very conditional thanks to drier air moving in at the
mid-levels and capping the area. Should something be able to break
said cap, however, there is quite a bit to work with as a few
CAMs are seeing MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg in the southeast
portion of the Panhandles. Shear is also present enough to help
something stay sustain long enough for hail to reach golf ball
sized. However, confidence is not the greatest that we will be
able to break the present cap with your best chance possibly
falling during the overnight as the incoming system begins to move
in and disrupt the upper-levels.

Getting more into this system and its impacts, currently models
are expecting the system to ride in on upper-level trough moving
through just to our north. This trough will help set-up our
classic dryline scenario for the Panhandles, in which everything
west of the line will see dry and windy conditions while to the
east will be chances of severe thunderstorms. Currently, majority
of the high resolution and global models continue see the dryline
split the Panhandles roughly around the Amarillo to Guymon line,
which would see the eastern half of the Panhandles under severe
weather and the western half under critical fire weather
conditions. Of course, this positioning still has the potential to
change as even the slightest changes to mesoscale could see the
line move one direction or the other. Alongside any unexpected
changes to the final positioning, there is also a very real
possibility that the now developing cloud cover could refuse to
break down Thursday and kill any chances for any impacts, which is
with out mentioning any negative effects overnight thunderstorms
could have to chances Thursday afternoon.

Despite the activity for Thursday still being conditional, the
potential impacts are not something to be ignored. Starting on the
fire weather side, strong southwesterly winds will likely follow
behind the line with potential to see winds reach the 25 to 35 mph
range and gusts near the 50 mph mark. Added to this will be RH
values dropping down to 10% for most of the afternoon. As for the
severe side, the short and sweet of it would be to simply to say
that all hazards would be possible should anything break the
present cap and develop. Getting more into it, most models are see
very good MLCAPE (2000 to 3000 J/kg) meets very good shear at all
levels. The support is present for a storm to produce hail up to
baseball size with isolated strong tornadoes not out of the
question. One area that does have me concerned when seeing these
values, is the northeast portion of the Panhandles. Looking
through the model soundings that area has the best chances of
breaking out of the cloud cover the earliest which would give it
plenty of time to heat up and produce thunderstorms. Should that
trend continue to hold, then I would put best chances of initial
convection up there.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

The active weather pattern will continue through the weekend for
the southern plains. Friday will see the weather system that
impacted the region on Thursday depart to the NE. As this occurs
another potent system will rapidly deepen and push into the desert
southwest. This pattern will keep a tight pressure gradient across
the panhandles leading to gusty winds through the day. Dry air
will already been pushed across the southern plains by the
departed thursday system. The dry air coupled with the gusty winds
will create elevated to critical fire weather conditions across
the panhandles. These conditions will generally be worse in the
SW panhandles where the winds are strongest and better in the NE
where the winds are a little weaker.

For Saturday the weather system in the desert SW will rapidly
eject eastward into the southern plains. This will likely bring
substantial dynamics and instability to the region. The big
question for the panhandles will be, is there enough moisture. Dry
air will more likely than not remain entrenched over the
panhandles as the winds ahead of this system will be from a dry SW
and not a moist S to SE. Some moisture may make it way into the
panhandles if the dryline retreats westward out of OK proper but
this is far from certain. So there will be a threat of severe
weather for Saturday IF and only IF moisture manages to make it
way back across the panhandles. What is more likely to occur is
fire weather as conditions will still be very dry for areas that
dont see moisture return which could be most if not all the
panhandles. This will once again be coupled with gusty winds
caused this time by the passing weather system. So another round
of elevated to critical fire weather conditions can be expected
with better odds of occurrence in the southern panhandles where
the winds are likely to be the strongest.

Sunday looks to wrap up the active weekend weather with a weak
cold front passing across the panhandles. This should lead to a
slight reduction in temperatures but also cause a slight increase
in moisture. This front should cause gusty winds but no where near
as strong as Friday and Saturday. So the weaker winds and higher
moisture should put to rest the fire weather conditions.

For next work week a ridge seems to be the most probable feature
to form across the souther plains. This would lead to warm up and
generally dry and fair weather. Highs in the 80s are the most
likely warmth however 90s cannot be ruled out just yet. Even with
conditions becoming a bit drier the winds are more likely to be on
the weaker side under the ridge so fire weather doesn`t look to
be a concern for now.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

IFR to MVFR ceilings are being observed currently at all TAF
sites. Ceilings will improve some at KAMA this afternoon but
return to MVFR tonight. KDHT will improve this afternoon to VFR
and remain VFR through this forecast period. KGUY may briefly
return to VFR this evening but drop into MVFR soon afterward. IFR
ceilings are possible at KGUY tonight, but confidence is too low
to include at this time.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                56  87  52  82 /  10  20  10   0
Beaver OK                  48  87  51  86 /  20  40  30   0
Boise City OK              49  85  47  80 /   0  10   0   0
Borger TX                  56  90  53  87 /  10  30  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              55  90  52  85 /  10  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  56  87  50  82 /  10  10  10   0
Clarendon TX               56  82  53  83 /  10  30  30   0
Dalhart TX                 50  86  44  81 /   0  10   0   0
Guymon OK                  49  87  48  84 /  10  30  10   0
Hereford TX                56  88  50  81 /  10  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                52  83  53  85 /  20  40  40   0
Pampa TX                   55  84  53  84 /  10  30  20   0
Shamrock TX                55  79  53  84 /  20  40  40   0
Wellington TX              57  79  54  86 /  20  40  50   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...52