593
FXUS63 KAPX 031822
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
222 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers/maybe t-storms ending w to e today.

- Rain showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms this
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pattern/synopsis: 1003mb surface low pressure over far nw MN. A
front arcs east and then south from the low, across western
upper MI and on to central IN. The low heads ne toward southern
Hudson Bay thru tonight, and the front will cross all of
northern MI by early this afternoon.

Forecast: Showers have been expanding during the night. Most of
the forecast area is seeing occasional showers. Lightning has
mostly been in central and southern lower MI. May still be a
window for a few rumbles, especially in n central and ne lower
MI. But the clear main story today is the abrupt end of precip
from w to e, as the front moves thru. Showers will end in far
western areas by late morning, along I-75 by early afternoon,
and along the ne lower MI coast by late afternoon. Substantial
clearing begins only 1-2 hours after precip ends. Expect mostly
clear skies across the area by sunset.

Max temps today in the 60s to around 70f, though cooler on the
immediate coastlines.

For tonight, a weak ridge of high pressure extends into the area
from the ne. Drier air intrusion and diurnally-induced vertical
mixing today, will be substantial enough to limit fog/stratus
potential in western areas tonight. That is less certain in the
east, and especially near Lk Huron. Do have some fog and patchy
low clouds possible east of I-75 overnight.

Min temps upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Longwave troughing and associated low pressure systems situated
across North America will influence the sensible weather for the
long term. Two separate low pressure systems located to the west of
the CWA currently, will eventually track towards the Great Lakes
Region and bring precipitation chances back for the weekend and mid
next week.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

 - Rain showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms this weekend:
A weak frontal passage will bring a round of showers and a slight
chance for thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. Along
with this will be a slight decrease in daytime temperatures for
Sunday, but this will be short-lived as we head into Monday. By
Monday, as heights rise, quiet and warmer weather look to take hold
for the first half of the work week. However, guidance continues to
hint at more active/ wet weather returning to the region by mid next
week with the potential for heavier showers and possible
thunderstorms growing more likely- Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Aside from IFR/MVFR CIGs lingering for another hour or two, VFR
conditions are anticipated across most northern Michigan TAF
sites through the issuance period with sunny/clear skies behind
the passing cold front. The exception to this looks to be APN as
BR/FG may settle in later tonight into Saturday morning.
Otherwise, northwest winds around 5-10 kts with occasional gusts
to 15 kts will go calm tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC