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000
FXUS63 KAPX 180345
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1145 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic shower chances through Saturday morning.

- Overall quiet, cooler weather this weekend ahead of more
  chances for showers early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Pattern synopsis:

An upper trough will drift from the western Lakes region to
northeast Ontario tonight and Thursday. At the surface, a warm
front extends from a surface low over Wisconsin across southern
lower Michigan to Lake Erie. This low will occlude out as a cold
front sweeps southern lower Michigan later today and tonight,
with the low itself north of the Soo by daylight Thursday.

Forecast Details:

Bands of precipitation pinwheeling around the upper low will
continue to bring light rain to the Northwoods through the
evening, tapering off overnight. Instability is hard to come by,
but storms that find some may produce a flash or two of
lightning. There is some potential for gusty winds (apart from
background winds) with this convection, but impacts look to
remain minimal. After perhaps a short lull in the wee hours,
another impulse will bring another round of light rain for most
places on Thursday.

Marine headlines will be gradually ratcheted back as the low
occludes. Current gale warnings will expire this evening, to be
replaced with small craft advisories, that will themselves drop
at 06z on the Michigan side and 12z elsewhere. Marine impacts
continue at this hour, so future shifts will monitor for
potential extension of these headlines.

The wind advisory for land portions of eastern upper will
similarly be allowed to expire on schedule at 5pm. Gusts will
continue in that area tonight, just not strong enough to reach
headline criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A long wave trough will be centered across north central Canada over
the next few days. The Great Lakes will be on the southern end of
this trough. Weak disturbances moving through the flow will bring
occasional rain shower chances through Saturday morning.
Progressively colder air will even lead to the possibility of rain
mixing in with or changing over to all snow showers late Friday
night into Saturday morning as the lakes become activated (lake/850
mb delta ts in the mid teens). Wouldn`t be shocked if parts of
eastern upper and the higher terrain of northern lower even
received a thin coating of snow. The flow flattens out for much of
Sunday into Monday likely bringing a break from the shower chances.
Another trough off of the Pacific will bring back shower chances
Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures will average slightly below
average during the long term with Saturday/Saturday night the
coldest period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Deep low pressure center will continue to lift NE into Ontario
overnight...then filling as it reaches James Bay on Thursday.
Showers will end overnight as the low center exits our state.
IFR/MVFR conditions will hold on across much of our region...
improving to MVFR/low VFR on Thursday. Chances of showers will
again increase by around midday Thursday thru Thursday night as
Northern Michigan becomes positioned along the northern edge of
deep moisture associated with low pressure moving thru the Mid
Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. Surface winds will
become westerly at 10 to 15 kts late tonight into Thursday...
and will then shift to the south under 10 kts Thursday night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ346>348.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ341-342.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JHV
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MLR