Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 190200

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1000 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Weak backdoor cold front is holding over Northern Wisconsin and
Lower Michigan late this evening...producing some low/mid cloud
cover across the region. Most of the lower (but still VFR) clouds
are over Wisconsin attm...but expect some of these low clouds will
make their way eastward into our CWA overnight. Aside from some
additional cloud cover overnight into Monday...quiet and dry wx
will prevail. Colder air filtering into the region behind the
backdoor cold front will drop overnight lows into the teens across
Upper Michigan and into the 20s across Lower Michigan.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

...Cooler on Monday...

High Impact Weather Potential...None

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...High pressure in northern Manitoba
noses southeast into NW Ontario and Hudson Bay with the southern
end of the ridge nosing into the Upper Great Lakes. This forces
the backdoor cold front through the forecast area by 00z/Tues. As
the front moves through, it looks to produce some clouds as the
soundings show small layers of moisture at 850 mb and at about 650
mb. The NE winds and the -10c 850 mb temperatures may produce some
clouds Monday night, and early Tuesday morning, before mixing
during the late morning dissipates the clouds for the afternoon.
Temperatures will remain below 40F as the chilly NE wind continues
to pump cool air into the forecast area.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Cloud cover diminish once the mixing
took over late in the morning. However, with the light winds and no
sunshine, will figure that the clouds will come back. This, in and
of itself isn`t necessarily a problem, but with the -10c 850 air and
Lake Huron water temperatures around +2C, There is a possibility
that some minor snow amounts or at the very least, flurries are
possible. However, with the amount of dry air in the soundings,
don`t think that it will happen, but it is possible.


.SHORT TERM...(Monday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

...Back into cooler air for at least the first half of the week...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...5-wave long wave pattern remains
essentially intact throughout the 7-day forecast period with
anchoring troughs off the Pacific coast and through eastern
Canada/New England. This maintains a somewhat progressive flow
pattern across the CONUS with periodic waves ejecting from the
Pacific trough and traversing the CONUS. The western Great lakes
region remains mostly under the control of Canadian high pressure
through much of the week...effectively suppressing the "storm track"
south of the region and keeping our weather on the quiet side. But
we also remain on the cool side of the active baroclinic zone to our
south keeping our temperatures below normal for the next several

Primary Forecast Concerns...Minimal. As mentioned...Canadian high
pressure anchored north of the Great Lakes will keep things on the
quiet side. But...with a cool airmass/marginal over lake instability
and predominate northeasterly flow...there will be potential for
Lake Huron lake cloudiness to become a nuisance early in the week
along with some possibilities for spotty lake induced precip across
NE lower MI...particularly Monday night through Tuesday while temps
aloft are at their coldest. Don`t plan to add any explicit PoPs to
the forecast at this point however...given the marginal instability
and low probabilities. But something to watch over the next few
days. Meanwhile...a weak short wave trough may also bring some cloud
cover through the region later Tuesday through midweek. But that`s
about it for the short term at this temperatures
and some cloud cover concerns.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

High Impact Weather Potential...None for now.

Continuing onward from the SHORT TERM...the western Great lakes
region remains mostly under the control of Canadian high pressure
for the latter half of the work week...largely maintaining our
stretch of quiet weather at least through the work week. By late in
the period...longer term guidance solutions continue to show a
decent surface low tracking through the Midwest and Ohio Valley
during the Friday night through Saturday timeframe and the potential
to spread some precip (mainly snow) up into northern Michigan. In
fact...the 18/00Z Euro run was quite bullish in spreading heavier
QPF into northern Michigan...but has backed completely away from
that idea with it`s 12Z solution now favoring a more southern track
and more in line with the GFS. GEFS Plumes are all over the board
with precip potential across northern lower Michigan. Bottom
line...a good amount of forecast uncertainty surrounds next weekends
weather at this point...and the forecast will be subject to revision
as we go through the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Increasing but limited low level moisture will result in an
increase in low VFR clouds overnight into Monday morning.
Otherwise...dry and relatively quiet wx will persist across all of
Northern Lower Michigan tonight thru Monday as high pressure
remains in control. Winds will remain from the N/NE AOB 10 kts
thru the forecast period.


Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

The sfc high begins to move southeast front the northern Manitoba
into northwest Ontario and Hudson Bay. The ridging from the high
noses into the Upper Great Lakes and tightens up the pressure
gradient over the northern half of Lakes Michigan and Huron. While
the winds don`t accelerate to over small craft on the east side
of the state, the winds do get to small craft during Monday
afternoon with gusts to 25 mph. Think that the with the short
fetch of the NE winds on Monday that the waves in the nearshore
should remain below small craft though.

Winds diminish Monday night and remain 5-10 kts for Tuesday as the
sfc high continues SE into James bay, before turning more east and
remaining over James bay on Tuesday.




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