116
FXUS63 KAPX 291754
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
154 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and isolated thunder today into tonight.

- Light rain showers late Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially
  north.

- Rain showers, perhaps some rumbles of thunder, late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging will continue to pivot east of the region today as a
shortwave trough and associated jet max punch over the Great Lakes.
Surface cyclone over the Upper Midwest will also trek northeast
across the far northern Great Lakes and into southern Ontario while
weakening as favorable forcing becomes increasingly displaced today
into tonight.

Forecast Details:

Rain/isolated thunder today into tonight --  Light isolated to
scattered showers will continue across parts of northern Michigan
early this morning. Ongoing rain and embedded thunder across
Illinois/NW Indiana will spread northeast, working into
southwest portions of the CWA around mid morning. This activity
will slide across the area through the rest of the morning and
into the afternoon with rainfall amounts expected to be around
0.5" for most. Localized areas could see closer to 0.75" through
this afternoon. While not necessarily expected, isolated
rumbles of thunder will be possible with this activity through
the afternoon. Chances for rain showers will diminish through
this evening and tonight. Otherwise, temperatures look to reach
into the 60s for areas along and south of M-32 where a warm
front looks to slide up to later today with cooler highs in the
40s and low 50s north of the boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper and sfc low will drift off to the northeast into Ontario on
Tuesday resulting in drier conditions. Short wave clips northern
Michigan very late Tuesday into Wednesday with weak sfc boundary. A
few generally light showers expected as a result. Next feature of
note will begin to impact the Northwoods late week in the form of
another Upper Midwest bound upper low/sfc low and its frontal
features. Slightly cooler airmass will settle in this weekend in
wake of this low pressure system.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Dry conditions take hold on Tuesday as sfc low departs the region
with temperatures in the 50s and 60s most areas. Energy lifts to the
northwest of Michigan very late Tuesday night into Wednesday with a
weak sfc boundary moving through. Consequently, a few light rain
showers possible, especially the farther north and west you are in N
MI but nothing of consequence. Clears out by the afternoon hours on
Wednesday with progged forecast soundings showing modest afternoon
boundary layer mixing resulting in breezy and drying conditions.
Blended in some drier guidance to achieve lower relative humidity in
the forcast as a result.

Next feature of note will be another trough and low pressure system
moving into the N Plains/Upper Midwest to the west of northern
Michigan. Warm and moist advection begins to move into the region on
Thursday, with the first batch of precipitation arriving. First
batch of precip may favor western and northern areas more so
given the latest guidance. Another shot for precip will come
with the cold front on Friday. Some guidance does suggest weak
CAPE values, but ensemble probs for >500j/kg of CAPE Thurs-Fri
are generally non- existent (<10%). Thus, have a few rumbles of
thunder in the forecast during this time but not much more than
that. Temperatures will cool a little this upcoming weekend
behind this system with a slight chance for a few rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Widespread -/+RA currently moving over northern lower and
eastern upper, creating LIFR/IFR cigs and vis. Most widespread
RA has moved out of KMBL/KTVC with clearing continuing east and
northward. Skies should remain IFR/MVFR, however vis will
improve with RA exiting. VCSH possible over KMBL/KTVC/KPLN/KCIU
from 20Z-04Z, then after 06Z most RA chances will have moved out
of the region. Chances for BR/FG tonight (05Z-14Z) especially
for terminals closer to the lake shores. VFR skies and cigs
likely return near the end of the period for most terminals.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ345>348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323-
     341-342.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...ELD