Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 171700
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
100 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 AM EDT Thu May 17 2018

Strong high pressure remains centered from Central and Eastern
Canada into the Great Lakes region late this morning...producing
clear skies and quiet wx across our CWA. Little will change as we
head into the afternoon hours...with mainly sunny skies and near
normal temps expected. East winds will lend to cooler temps from
the tip of the Mitt thru NE Lower Michigan as cooler air off of
Lake Huron is pushed inland. Temps will warm into the 70s across
SW portions of our CWA thanks to downslope effects with easterly
flow.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Thu May 17 2018

...Cooler today but still plenty of sun...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal...though fire danger will
still be elevated.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Overall flow pattern across the CONUS
remains pretty weak early this morning...with stronger westerlies
displaced to the north across Canada (strong +NAO) and split flow
along the west coast of North America with several disturbances
within the southern branch of this split.  In particular one over
California and another over Florida...with water vapor imagery
showing a pair of vorticity centers along a rough north-south axis
from northeast Kansas into Arkansas.  Elongated PV anomaly within
the northern branch over Canada extends from far northern Manitoba
southeast across northern Ontario and around the southern tip of
James Bay.  04z surface analysis shows a cold front dropping south
across Wisconsin/Lower Michigan with surface high pressure building
into the region behind this boundary.  Thinning clouds across far
northeast Lower early this morning within some weak isentropic
ascent post-cold front.  Tight low level thermal gradient behind the
front leading to some fairly strong cold advection into the Upper
Peninsula and tip of the mitt this morning.

No real change in the height pattern over the upper Great Lakes
expected over the next 24 hours...even some weak height rises with
the approach of a short wave ridge axis.  Rising surface pressures
expected as well with a northeast boundary layer flow around the
high center over northern Ontario.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Few issues today into tonight with high
pressure building in from the north.  Should be cooler today than
Wednesday...and combined with slightly higher relative humidity
should lessen the fire danger a bit though will continue to mention
elevated fire danger per user request.  Highs today expected to vary
from cooler east to warmer west (where northwest Lower should
benefit from downsloping component to northeast winds)...mostly 60s
for eastern Upper and east of US-131 (may be stuck in the 50s near
Lake Huron)...with highs in the 70s for much of the area west of
US-131.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Thu May 17 2018

...Rain chances increase Friday night-Saturday...

High Impact Weather Potential: Elevated fire danger across the
majority of northern Michigan through at least Friday.

Pattern Forecast: Weak ridging is anticipated at the start of the
period over the Great Lakes region with surface high pressure
sagging in from southern Canada allowed dry conditions to continue
across northern Michigan. Several pieces of shortwave energy are
expected to be situated to Michigan`s southwest/west on Friday...
gradually pressing toward the area this weekend through the start of
next week bringing scattered rain chances at various times.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Elevated fire weather concerns
through Friday. Increasing rain chances Saturday.

Friday is expected to feature quiet weather across northern Michigan
with mostly sunny skies, generally light easterly winds and high
temperatures topping out a few degrees above mid-May normals as
Canadian high pressure continues to sag into the region from the
northeast. High temps ranging from the low-mid 60s across eastern
upper and the Lake Huron collar counties due to an easterly
wind...climbing to the low-mid 70s across north-central and
northwest lower. Potential remains for relative humidity values to
drop as low as 20-30% across parts of the area Friday afternoon.
While overly warm temperatures are not necessarily of great concern,
low RHs combined with antecedent dry conditions yields a continued
elevated fire concern.

Increasing clouds, especially across northern lower, will be the
rule Friday night as an area of low pressure organizes across the
Ohio Valley before gradually sliding north-northward into far
southern Ontario through the day Saturday. While confidence remains
low with respect to shower coverage/intensity/duration, the chance
for showers certainly increases from south to north throughout
Friday night into Saturday with the highest PoPs lying across
sections of northeast lower (east of I-75/south of M-32). Initial
trends certainly are not great for widespread appreciable rainfall
across northern Michigan through Saturday with the gut feeling being
that any showers able to develop will remain fairly scattered and
brief in nature for any one location.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Thu May 17 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

While the forecast resembles an unsettled feel at various points to
wrap up the weekend into early next week, confidence is low in terms
of just how much beneficial rain will fall. Latest deterministic
suite of guidance continues to show very little consistency in
the overall pattern development, placement of upper level
features/disturbances, and ultimately inherent rain chances
across northern Michigan. Low PoPs will litter the forecast at
various times from Saturday night through Tuesday knowing full
well that much of this time will likely be dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

Strong high pressure and dry air thru the column will remain over
Lower Michigan tonight thru Friday...resulting in solid VFR
conditions at all TAF sites. E/NE winds around 10 kts with a few
higher gusts this afternoon will diminish to around 5 kts
tonight...and will then increase to 10 to 15 kts on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Thu May 17 2018

High pressure building in from the north today will keep a bit of an
easterly component to boundary layer winds through tonight.  Winds
may try to shift a bit more onshore for the Lake Michigan nearshore
zones between Manistee and Grand Traverse Light...wind speeds may
also flirt with Small Craft criteria through this afternoon. More
of an east wind develops overnight into Friday...funneling
through the Straits could result in some Small Craft conditions...
as well as increasing waves within the northeast Lower Lake Huron
nearshore zones with longer easterly fetch.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB



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