Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 171753

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
153 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

...Some cloud cover...otherwise quiet...

High Impact Weather Potential...none.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Afternoon composite analysis reveals
northern Michigan remains sandwiched between deep troughing/cold
air across Ontario/New England and warmer air/ridging through the
central CONUS. Detached short wave/surface low is traversing the
Ohio Valley but will remain away from us. Surface cold front
stretches from surface low pressure in Manitoba and western
Ontario down across eastern upper MI and Lake Huron. Although
given the very dry airmass in place you wouldn`t know it other
than a wind shift and much colder temperatures heading northward
into Ontario. There is a batch of mid cloud cover (cigs around 10K
feet) slipping southeastward along the boundary across western
Ontario and Lake Superior...that will be arriving in a few hours.

Primary Forecast trends and low temps.

Aforementioned shallow boundary/"backdoor" cold front expected to
stall and perhaps nudge back northward a bit tonight as the
upstream surface low slides down through the northeast part of the
CWA through Sunday morning...only to return once again on Sunday
as the low departs to the SE. Not expecting much with this system
given weak forcing and dry antecedent conditions across the region.
But we will see this intial batch of mid cloud cover slide
through late this afternoon and evening...and potentially some
shallow SCT-BKN stratus development with the front Sunday as the
low departs to the SE.

Lows tonight are a bit tricky. Was initially inclined to cut and
paste last nights lows into tonight. But...aforementioned cloud
cover issues and slightly stronger low level winds makes that
problematic and statistical guidance sources certainly are running
warmer with tonights lows as compared to last nights. That said I
still think temperatures in some of the interior cold spots could
tank if we see a prolonged clear period. So...perhaps not as cold
as last night...but I do plan on undercutting guidance temps a


.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

...Continued quiet weather...

High Impact Weather Potential...None

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Mid-level ridging over the Upper
Mississippi Valley on Sunday will flatten out by Monday as a closed
low ejects eastward from the Rockies. A weak, moisture-starved cold
front will drop south through northern Michigan Sunday morning, but
with little effect on daytime temperatures. Canadian high pressure
and a dry airmass will build in from the north behind the front on

Primary Forecast Concerns...No significant forecast concerns as a
stretch of benign weather continues for northern Michigan. A rather
dry airmass will promote precipitation-free conditions, though it
appears there will be a little more in the way of cloud cover Sunday
and Monday. Sunday`s cold front will have some decaying cloud cover
associated with it, and the cold air advection aloft developing in
its wake will lead to steep low level lapse rates and some lake
induced instability. Maybe some scattered stratocu as a result, but
not expecting more than perhaps partly cloudy skies at times
downwind of the lakes in the developing northeasterly flow. Thanks
to the front, there will be quite a spread in high temperatures
Sunday, ranging from about 30 near Paradise to near 50 at Gladwin.
Monday will be a tad cooler with highs in the mid 20s north to
mid/upper 30s south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Not much sensible weather to talk about in the extended portion of
the forecast. Another strong surface high accompanied by a dry
airmass will sit over Ontario and Quebec through the middle of the
week. Upper low/shortwave and inverted surface trough over the
Northern Plains on Tuesday will weaken as they encounter the dry
airmass and strong surface high. All this will spell continued dry
and slightly cooler than normal conditions for northern Michigan.
Rising heights towards the end of the week will correspond to a


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Solid VFR weather today and tonight with sustained winds largely
under 10 knots. There will be an increase of mid cloud cover later
in the afternoon through this evening as batch of cloud cover
moving across Lake Superior slips SE through the region.

Meanwhile...weak "backdoor" cold front slides into the region
late overnight along with an area of low pressure that slides down
through northern lower Michigan early Sunday morning. Shallow
cool airmass may touch off some sct-bkn MVFR stratus that spreads
into the region Sunday morning...with the main impacts at PLN and




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