000
FXUS63 KAPX 101011
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
611 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated Fire Danger this afternoon along and east of I-75.

- Widespread soaking rain and gusty winds expected Thursday and
  Friday.

- Quiet weather for the majority of the long term. Temperatures
  warm again to the upper 60s this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing continues to sit over the Great Lakes as a weak shortwave
apparent on satellite imagery works across the upper Midwest towards
the region this morning. These features look to slide east today as
ridging/height rises temporarily build into the Great Lakes.
Meanwhile, highly amplified longwave troughing will progress across
much of the central CONUS and begin lifting across the
Mississippi/Ohio Valley towards the Great Lakes by the end of the
forecast period.

Forecast Details:

Mainly quiet weather is in store for northern Michigan through this
evening. The primary forecast concern during daylight hours will be
elevated fire danger across interior northern lower Michigan this
afternoon -- particularly along and east of I-75. As temperatures
warm into the mid to upper 60s away from the immediate lakeshores,
moisture is expected to mix out very efficiently -- resulting in RHs
between 20-30%. When combined west winds around 10 mph with gusts to
20 mph at times and increasingly dry vegetation, this leads to
aforementioned elevated fire danger.

As ridging gets pushed east and a deepening cyclone works up towards
the Great Lakes, associated cloud cover will spread overhead this
evening and rain chances look to return late tonight. Best chances
for rain prior to 12Z Thursday will be along and south of M-55 as
the vast majority of expected rainfall should move in after the near
term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel split flow over North America continues to deliver a
chaotic flow pattern to the CONUS. Northern branch flow over Hudson
Bay and southern branch flow over the U.S with embedded
troughing keeps weather slightly active at times for the Great
Lakes region.

Aformentioned southern branch flow with embedded troughing currently
over the Southwestern U.S will progress across the country and make
its way to the midwest by Thursday, while deepening. Widespread rain
chances begin late Thursday morning as surface low pressure is
expected to track through Saginaw Bay. Biggest concern with this
system regarding to impactful weather is the well advertised
rainfall and strong gusty winds.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Widespread measurable precipitation and strong gusty winds
expected this Thursday and Friday: WPC has outlined marginal
chances of excessive rainfall for the entire state of Michigan
as widespread heavy precipitation is expected at the beginning
of the forecast period. Latest guidance places PWAT values at
the top 90th percentile of climatology for mid April. Heaviest
swath of rain is expected Thursday afternoon and evening for
areas closest to the core of precipitation. Areas along northern
lower, especially along the Huron shoreline will see over an
inch of liquid QPF by 00Z Friday. Localized areas could see
potential of storm total amounts upwards of an inch and a half
to two inches of rainfall for the duration of the event.

Winds will pick up noticeably once northwest flow settles in
Thursday night, gusting up to the low to mid 40s for localized
areas of northern lower. Precipitation will persist this Friday
with higher rain rates for counties along the Michigan shoreline
with the aid of northwest flow. Even with rainfall amounts in
excess of an inch possible, concerns for flooding remain low
due to the extremely high porosity of soil across the CWA along
with the historically dry winter season the CWA has experienced.
A good soaking across Northern Michigan could help put a short
pause on wildfire concerns this spring.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Quiet weather for the majority of the long term. Temperatures warm
again to the upper 60s this weekend: Midlevel shortwave troughing
with attached surface low pressure will progress northwards towards
Hudson Bay and open the majority of the U.S to a more
zonal/elongated ridging midlevel pattern this weekend and early next
week. Mainly quiet weather can be expected for the Great Lakes
region this weekend other than an embedded shortwave moving across
the region on Sunday with highs springing back into the 50s and 60s
after the rainfall event. Sunday will be the warmest with localized
areas across the CWA breaking 70 degrees to start off the week.
Another shortwave currently over the Gulf of Alaska makes its way to
the midwest by the next Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, potentially
returning active weather to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan through the
issuance period. West winds will increase through this morning,
gusting to 15-20 kts at times through this afternoon before
diminishing this evening. Lake breeze formation is anticipated to
push inland from the Lake Huron shoreline later this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Advisory winds and waves are not expected over northern Great Lakes
nearshore waters today and tonight. Winds look to increase out of
the northeast late tonight, bringing the next chance for widespread
advisory conditions on Thursday. Looking ahead, gale force wind
gusts will be possible on all nearshore waters on Friday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DJC
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...DJC
MARINE...DJC