Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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172
FXUS63 KAPX 190137
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
937 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Surface low continues to make its way eastward thru the Ohio
Valley late this evening...while the associated upper low is
sliding thru the far Southern Great Lakes region. Northern edge of
the elongated precip shield associated with this system almost
reached our southern CWA border a couple of hours ago...but has
since shown a slow retreat southward as the upper low center
begins to make a SE move toward the surface low currently moving
thru Ohio Valley. Mainly mid cloudy is covering most of our CWA
attm...with little in the way of cloudy cover across Eastern Upper
Michigan. Temps remain in the 30s at this hour.

Upper low will continue to slide southeast into the Ohio Valley
overnight...dragging the precip shield to our south with it.
Expect no precip overnight...along with decreasing cloud cover
from north to south as the associated mid clouds follow suite.
Northerly winds will begin to strengthen overnight between this
departing system and strong high pressure to our west.
Strengthening winds will provide enough low level mixing to keep
temps from plummeting due to clearing skies. Still expect
overnight lows in the 20s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

...Quiet Weather Continues...

High Impact Weather Potential...None

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Clouds have diminished in coverage throughout
the day as high pressure and accompanying drier air continues to
push southward from western Ontario. Expect the clouds to become
more widespread over northern lower once again tonight after
sunset and cooling takes place. Aforementioned dry air and
subsidence may be too much for any cloud development to take place
over eastern upper. A low pressure system tracking east and and
currently over the Ohio Valley will produce rain/snow over
southern lower Michigan...where the deeper moisture and best
synoptic forcing is in place. Models have continued with it`s
placement of precip further and further south with each run and
now not a single model has precip over our forecast area with the
exception of possibly southern Gladwin County. Northerly winds
will become gusty Thursday afternoon, especially around the lake
shores as said high continues to build in behind the departing
system...tightening the pressure gradients.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

...Warming continues into the weekend...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal, expected some
morning restrictions to visibility Friday and Saturday morning.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Afternoon temperatures and
morning fog with a relatively dry airmass and lingering snowpack.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...The large area of high pressure moving
over the Plains, will become anchored over the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley by Saturday. At upper levels, the deep 500mb trough over the
eastern Great Lakes Thursday, will exit east on Friday while a weak
500mb trough sweeps over the Great Lakes Saturday. Overall very
little sfc or upper lvl dynamics expected over the Great Lakes into
this weekend.

Moisture progs and model soundings show an extremely dry airmass
moving into the region through the period, with 850/500mb RH under
40 percent and PWATS less than 0.20 inch through Sunday. However, am
a little concerned about the large snowpack (snow core values
ranging between 3 and 4 inches liquid) and potential development of
low level moisture generating morning stratus or fog. The latest
SREF sfc vsby prog (under 3miles), indicates an area of low lvl mstr
pooling across much of the cwa Friday morning as sfc dew pts
increase into the mid 20s. The SREF shows the presence of low lvl
moisture again Saturday morning (though expanding in areal coverage)
as low lvl mstr increases, the result of melting continued from
Friday afternoon high temps in the mid and upper 40s. Would suspect
the late April sun angle and otherwise dry mid and upper lvl
airmass, would promote burning off any low lvl moisture arnd 15z
each day.

Overall will continue the trend of largely clear skies and warming
temperatures through the forecast period. Will mention of presence
of fog both Friday and Saturday mornings, as the melting of the
April snowpack begins and high pressure settles in over the state.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

A fairly dry pattern is expected across the Great Lakes through
the forecast period, as a large area of high pressure and upper
ridging remains anchored over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into
the beginning of the upcoming work week. A weakly organized
boundary pushing across the Plains next week, will sweep over the
state Tuesday night and generate a wintry mix of light rain and
snow over northern Michigan Wednesday. 850mb temps warming from 0c
to +4c through the period, will generate seasonal afternoon highs
in the mid and upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Low pressure will slide thru Southern Lower Michigan tonight...
producing an area of precip across that area. The northern edge of
this precip shield will stay south of our area. Overall
conditions will remain VFR thru the forecast period...although
there is a small chance that cigs may briefly drop to MVFR as this
precip shield passes to our south. North winds at 10 to 20 kts
tonight will strengthen to 15 to 25 kts on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Northerly winds will become gusty as the pressure gradient tightens
between a strong area of high pressure centered over Western Ontario
and a low pressure system over the Ohio Valley. Small craft
advisories will be out for all of the nearshore waters of northern
Michigan and eastern upper Michigan through Thursday night...as
winds gust 25-30kts.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ345-
     346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Friday for LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Thursday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 PM EDT Thursday for LSZ321-
     322.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...SR
LONG TERM...SR
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...TL



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