Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 241521

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1121 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Issued at 1121 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

No major changes needed to the going forecast. Strong Canadian
high pressure remains parked over Ontario providing plenty of dry
air/subsidence into northern Michigan. Just enough shallower cold
air across the lakes to prompt a response...with SCT-BKN lake
clouds streaming into a sliver of the NE lower Michigan
shoreline...mainly south of Sturgeon Point. OSC ob and a few
webcams show mostly cloudy skies down that way and have updated
sky forecasts accordingly. Given the degree of dry air off the
surface (reference this mornings APX sounding) I do expect those
clouds to fully mix out within a few least over land.

Otherwise...continued cool by mid March standards with highs
spanning the 30s.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Early this morning, high pressure is centered over Hudson Bay with
it`s axis extending due south through the western Great Lakes,
including nrn Michigan. The atmosphere is very dry with PWAT values
around 0.15" and skies were clear. There was a bit of high level
cirrus trying to edge it`s way into the GTV Bay region, which is out
ahead of low pressure and a warm front from Kansas to the mid
Mississippi valley, but even this high level cloud was having a hard
time penetrating our dry air mass.

The quiet weather just keeps persisting, but we will see a bit of a
pattern change through tonight. Nrn Michigan has been on the
backside of east coast upper troughing the last several days. This
troughing will depart east, and will get replaced by mid level
ridging. The sfc high pressure will work it`s way into Quebec, but
the ridge axis will remain stretched back across nrn Michigan. The
air mass actually gets drier, with PWATS under 0.10". Needless to
say, increased subsidence under the mid level ridging, without any
forcing to be seen, precip chances remain zero. The low level
temperatures are cold enough for some overlake instability in
easterly flow coming off Lake Huron, but the air mass is so dry,
this is more than likely to not occur.

High temperatures will be in the 30s most areas again, with lows
tonight again mainly in the teens.


.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

...Dry, sunny stretch of weather nearing its end...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Mid-level ridge axis will cross northern
Michigan during the day Sunday, and strong surface high pressure
centered over Quebec will continue to extend into the Great Lakes.
As the surface high drifts further east Sunday night into Monday,
warm air and moisture advection will increase across the Upper
Midwest, ahead of a developing cyclone over the Plains.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Cloud cover and temperature trends

Our prolonged dry, sunshine-filled stretch of weather looks to be
nearing its end as strong high pressure gradually pulls away from
the Great Lakes at the beginning of the week. Aside from perhaps
some lake-induced stratocu pushing inland from Lake Huron Sunday
morning, skies should largely be mostly sunny again, and likely into
Monday morning. As warm air advection ramps up through the day
Monday, upstream cloud cover will begin to spread into northern
Michigan by afternoon. The WAA and corresponding southeasterly wind
shift will lead to a pronounced jump in temperatures heading into
Monday. Guidance is in good agreement with highs flirting with 50
across much of northern Lower, with low to mid 40s likely elsewhere
across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

A pattern shift will result in the return of precipitation Monday
night into Tuesday as a deep Western trough slides across the
central US. Increasing Gulf moisture will be pulled into the Upper
Great Lakes ahead of a strengthening surface low lifting
northeastward from the Plains. Isentropic showers will spread across
northern Michigan as early as Monday evening, with rain expected to
become more widespread by daybreak Tuesday as the core of the system
approaches. This far out, there is still plenty of uncertainty with
regard to the exact track and intensity of this system, but milder
temperatures generally look to support mainly rain through Tuesday.
A cold front will sweep through Tuesday night, followed by another
cold front progged to drop through the region Thursday night into
Friday. This secondary front looks to usher in a return to colder
temperatures for Easter weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 654 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Outside of some high level cirrus in the GTV Bay region, high
pressure, strong subsidence and dry air will maintain mostly clear
skies across Michigan thru tonight. Solid VFR conditions at all
Northern Lower Michigan TAF sites over the next 24 hours. N/NE
winds AOB 10 kts will strengthen to 10 to 15 kts today, with a
few gusts approaching 20 knots.


Issued at 349 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

High pressure over Hudson Bay will push through Quebec by Sunday,
and winds will gradually veer from NE to ESE. Speeds are expected
to sneak into low end advisory levels at times through Sunday
night in portions of Lakes Huron and Michigan. The pressure
gradient tightens more significantly Sunday night through Tuesday,
and more or extended advisories will be very likely needed. These
increased winds will occur out ahead of a low pressure system
that will bring rain Monday night through Tuesday night, with
maybe some snow mixing in at night.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Monday for LHZ347>349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Sunday for LHZ345.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ344>346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ342.


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