000
FXUS63 KAPX 251501
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1101 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather continues today and tonight.

- Dry conditions continue this Friday before showers and
  thunderstorms move in late.

- Showers and storms continue at times through the weekend into
  Monday -- including potential for severe storms on Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Ridge axis to our west this morning...with low-level high pressure
in place largely overhead...though core of the surface high is just
to our east in Ontario. Bit of PV dropping through the UP this
morning, and additional niblets upstream over the central
Plains...with some high clouds slipping across SW Lower MI this
morning. Very quiet over the region this morning amid this setup
...with light southeasterly flow at most sites...and dewpoints in
the teens to 20s; temps rebounding into the upper 30s to lower 40s
this morning following a chilly night with record lows tied at a few
of our climate sites.

Expecting a warmer day today, with highs in the 50s. Light wind
profile supports lake breeze development through the remainder of
the day. Return flow begins to creep in late today into tonight,
which, combined with highs in the 50s, should support a warmer night
tonight compared to last night...though freezing temps should remain
a concern for many, especially inland. Otherwise...primary issue for
the forecast period will be how close to elevated fire danger we get
on Friday...and will be taking a more thorough look at things going
forward...but initial thoughts have pressure gradient tightening
with time Friday afternoon, which would suggest that the better
chance of hitting wind criteria would be in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing continues to pivot from the northeast CONUS over the
Atlantic today as longwave ridging slides eastward over the
Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes. Subsidence aloft provided at the
inflection point of these features will keep building surface high
pressure currently centered overhead gradually eastward today into
tonight. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough looks to eject over the
southern Great Plains later this evening and tonight, providing
ample divergence aloft to support lee cyclogenesis over western
Kansas/Nebraska.

Forecast Details:

Quiet weather continues today and tonight -- Cold temperatures this
morning will quickly warm up after sunrise with cloud-free skies in
store through today and tonight. Highs across the area look to climb
into the low to mid 50s for most of northern Michigan, aside from
those against the lakeshores that may stay in the upper 40s.
Light/calm winds are also anticipated today with lake breezes
pushing inland this afternoon and evening. Southeast winds look to
gradually strengthen beginning late tonight into Friday morning with
overnight lows dipping back into the upper 20s and 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel shortwave troughing currently over the central CONUS will
breifly bring a warmer air mass with surface high pressure to the
Great Lakes region this Friday. Midlevel shortwave troughing
currently over the Pacific near southern California will progress
across the country and return a more active weather pattern at the
start of the weekend.

Aforementioned troughing will be centered over the Central Plains at
the start of the forecast period. The trough and surface based low
pressure will slowly move across the midwest this weekend into early
next week, while simultaneously weakening, delivering rounds of
thunderstorms and showers through Monday before a more zonal flow
pattern takes over by next Tuesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Dry conditions continue this Friday before showers and
thunderstorms move in late: Friday starts off dry. High pressure
continues to deliver one more day of pleasant weather before a
weakening cold front delivers precipitation to parts of the CWA
as soon as Friday night. Rainfall will need to saturate the
environment from a top down method, so overcoming dry air can
delay measurable precipitation until the 12Z timeframe.
Aforementioned low pressure will be weakening as it moves across
the Upper Midwest, keeping rainfall pretty low, but CAPE values
in the 1500-1800 range and SRH values approaching the 300s will
keep the potential of severe weather Saturday afternoon/evening
a real possibility. SPC has upgraded the northern lower
penisula to a slight risk of severe weather and WPC keeps
Michigan under no risk of excessive rainfall, but a general
quarter to half inch can be expected through Saturday.

Precipitation will continues at times through the weekend into
Monday: Multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms will
persist this weekend as the first trough diminishes and is
quickly replaced by another. Showers and storms will continue
across the Great Lakes region through Monday. Quiet weather will
settle into the region for the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe as a
more zonal flow pattern over the CONUS returns surface high
pressure to the CWA for the end of April.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan through the
issuance period with sunny/clear skies in place. Weak/calm winds are
also anticipated for most of the period, with the only caveat being
lake breeze formation pushing inland from all lakeshore areas during
the afternoon and evening tomorrow.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FEF
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...DJC