Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 200252

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1052 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Issued at 1052 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Strong cold Canadian high pressure remains firmly in control of
the wx across Northern Michigan late this evening. Skies remain
clear across our entire CWA...and combined with decoupling low
levels with sunset...temps are quickly falling thru the 20s. Still
anticipate sct/bkn low lake cloudiness and scattered flurries will
develop late tonight across NE Lower Michigan thanks to ongoing
CAA and low level NE flow off of Lake Huron. Rest of our CWA will
remain mostly clear and cold tonight. Low temps will bottom out in
the single digits above zero across Eastern Upper Michigan and
into the teens across Northern Lower Michigan.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

...Cool NE Wind...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...High pressure west of Hudson Bay is
moving SE to just west of James Bay by 12z/Tue. This will force
dry, cooler air into the forecast area. There is a layer of
moisture still in the sounding right around 850 mb and with the
850 mb temperatures overnight falling to around -10c, will expect
some instability. Models are expecting some moisture at 850 mb to
move in from the NE as well,and with the fetch across Lake Huron,
we could see some flurries along the east shore.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Cloud cover and flurries on the Lake
Huron shore are the main issues. If the moisture can be deep
enough, and the 850 mb temperatures fall to -11c or -12c, then the
instability could support better bands. However, all of the models
are pretty consistent with the -10c temperatures. The air is
fairly dry in the surrounding layer as well, but above and below
the moisture that is out there, so things will mix out by the


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

...Continued chilly to kick off spring...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Large scale 5-wave long wave pattern
remains intact today around the northern hemisphere with anchoring
troughs off the Pacific coast and across eastern Canada/New England.
Split but fairly progressive flow pattern noted through the lower 48
with an active southern stream producing active weather across the
lower Mississippi Valley through the SE states. Weak troughing is
moving into the northern plains. Broad area of surface high pressure
is centered across central Canada and continues to dominate the
weather across the Great Lakes.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Minimal. Canadian high pressure will
essentially remain parked north of the Great Lakes through midweek
before breaking down as we get into the latter half of the week.
Predominant NE flow will maintain a relatively cool airmass across
the region through midweek...leading to periodic nuisance lake cloud
issues off Lake Huron through Wednesday...and some potential for
lake induced flurries or light snow showers as well.

Wednesday into Thursday...weak northern plains short wave trough
gets shoved into the western Great Lakes region as sharp ridging
builds through the western CONUS and deep closed low emerges off the
mid Atlantic coast. Still no sensible weather anticipated for
northern Michigan...although we will see an increase in larger scale
mid and high cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Thursday night through Monday

Quiet period of weather continues into the beginning of the forecast
period, and possibly even longer, as long term models are trending
with a strong high pressure centered near James Bay keeping the next
storm system farther south with each run. Trending with
precipitation chances over the southern CWA to only slight now and
will need to be monitored during each run as some models do not have
precip chances even near the forecast area at all anymore. High
temperatures will generally be in the 30s...with some low 40s
possible Thursday and Monday, while lows will be in the teens to low


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Our persistent clear skies will be interrupted by increasing
lake effect clouds and flurries streaming into portions of NE and
far Northern Lower Michigan off of Lake Huron via NE low level
winds. Solid VFR conditions this evening will deteriorate to MVFR
cigs overnight into Tuesday across NE Lower Michigan (APN)...
with some scattered low clouds likely reaching into far Northern
Lower Michigan (PLN) as well. NE surface winds around 10 kts
tonight will strengthen to 15 to 25 kts across NE Lower Michigan
on Tuesday.


Issued at 249 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure, west of Hudson Bay, and
low pressure south of the Ohio Valley, is tightening up the
pressure gradient and increasing the NE wind across the Upper
Great Lakes. We are approaching small craft conditions north of
Manistee, and will start getting gusts over the next few hours. As
we go through the night, the gradient tightens up on the east side
of the state, and the Lake Huron shore will begin to get small
craft wind gusts and waves. This is beginning to look like the
winds and waves could continue for the rest of the afternoon and
into the evening.




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