000
FXUS63 KAPX 201856
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
256 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire danger possible Monday.

- Rain chances Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A long wave trough will remain across the region through tonight
then slowly retreat to the northeast Sunday. Instability/moisture
will wane this evening ending any remaining light snow showers
across the region. Mostly cloudy skies will clear out this
evening leaving mostly clear skies overnight. Partly to mostly
sunny skies are then expected on Sunday. Gusty westerly winds
will diminish this evening but pick up once again Sunday. Gusty
to around 25 mph will be common. Lows tonight ranging from the
mid 20s to low 30s. Milder Sunday with highs ranging from the
upper 40s north to the mid 50s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Pattern Forecast: Amplified troughing parked over the eastern third
of NOAM this weekend begins to trek east by Sunday night with
rebounding upper-level heights locally as we head into new work
week. Focus revolves around the Monday night - Tuesday time frame as
a mid-level wave and attendant surface low race toward the western
Great Lakes...likely bringing the next chance of showers. Heights
build late in the week in advance of another potential low pressure
system next weekend.

Forecast Details: Sunday`s winds give way to a calm & chilly Sunday
night with little in the way of sensible weather as the typically
cooler locales potentially fall to near 20 degrees for overnight low
temps. Temps rebound nicely Monday with many spots across northern
lower in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s. Potential for elevated fire
danger on Monday given low RHs and another relatively breezy day.

Aforementioned mid-level wave and attendant surface low approach
from the northwest Monday night. A couple rounds of showers expected
with this system -- initially Monday night into early Tuesday and
again later Tuesday into Tuesday evening in advance of the system`s
cold front. Perhaps a couple of thunderstorms as well later Tuesday
dependent on any midday clearing to muster marginal instability.

A drying trend expected Wednesday through at least Friday morning.
Cool temps Wednesday, but bouncing back into the 50s and low 60s for
the end of the week. Next weather-maker sets its sights on northern
Michigan later Friday into the weekend as low pressure encroaches
from the southwest. Lots of details to sort out over the next
several days, but a return to more active weather looks pretty
likely.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan through
the taf period. Low end VFR CIGs are likely across the eastern
U.P. and interior northern lower with perhaps a brief dip into
MVFR through this afternoon. Cloud clover gradually scatters
out this evening. Mostly clear skies are then in store for
tonight. West winds around 10 kts with gusts around 20-25 kts
are also expected through this afternoon before decreasing this
evening. Isolate to scattered light snow showers will end by late
this afternoon. Winds will be a bit gusty again Sunday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...AJS