Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 200711

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
311 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...Spring arrives with a bit of a Winter-like feel...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Starting to sound like a broken record,
but southern extent of broad and strong Canadian high pressure
continues to dominate our weather. Northeast flow around this high
resulting in a bit of a winter chill across the northwoods, helped
along by cloud-free skies. Still waiting on that shallow Lake Huron
response, much like what was experienced last morning. No evidence
of that yet, but still think strato-cu will develop across at least
portions of northeast lower Michigan in the next few hours where
upslope and moisture contribution is maximized. May even see a few
flurries as top of shallow moist layer extends into the low end of
the dendritic growth layer.

Simply not much change anticipated over the coming days, with
interactive baroclinic axis displaced well to our south and west,
with that Canadian high maintaining complete control of our weather.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Same old, same and
temperature trends.

Details: Spring officially arrives at 12:15 this afternoon! Won`t
quite feel like spring however, as that cool northeast flow
continues. Any northeast lower lake clouds and flurries expected to
mix out later this morning and early afternoon, leaving behind
increasing high clouds. Still expecting skies to be partly to mostly
sunny, with that sun doing its best to offset continued cold air
advection. It will help a tad, but expected readings mostly in the
upper 20s to lower 30s will be a good 5 to 10 degrees below normal
for the start of Spring.

Plenty of high and mid level clouds tonight, especially the further
south one goes. May once again see a late night Lake Huron response
into northeast lower Michigan. Slight modification of the low level
environment and a bit shallower moisture profile may mute this
response some, but still could see some very shallow strato-cu and a
few flurries. Definitely not a big deal. Those clouds and continued
light surface winds should keep temperatures from plummeting too
much, but still expect readings similar to those experienced early
this morning (mostly in the teens).


.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...Continued Quiet Weather...

Primary Forecast Concern...Minimal.

Perhaps some lingering low clouds early Wednesday. Otherwise, while
the East Coast gets pounded by yet another Nor`Easter (the 4th in
less than three weeks), the western Great Lakes will remain quiet
with only a moisture starved upper level low cruising across the
region without much fanfare Thursday (maybe producing some
mid/high level cloudiness). Temperatures will moderate some
but still remain at least a few degrees below seasonal averages.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...Not Much Going On...

Primary Forecast Concern...Minimal.

A pronounced Rex block (upper level high) is shown to form across
central Canada and extend southward into the western Great Lakes.
Meanwhile at the surface, very strong high pressure (1040 mb) will
supply another short of chilly air. The Rex block will keep pretty
much all weather systems from affecting the forecast area for a
few days so quiet but cool weather will persist all the way into the
beginning of next week. Temperatures will be at least a few degrees
below average for later March.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Our persistent clear skies will be interrupted by increasing
lake effect clouds and flurries streaming into portions of NE and
far Northern Lower Michigan off of Lake Huron via NE low level
winds. Solid VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR cigs
overnight into Tuesday across NE Lower Michigan (APN)...with some
scattered low clouds likely reaching into far Northern Lower
Michigan (PLN) as well. NE surface winds around 10 kts overnight
will strengthen to 15 to 25 kts across NE Lower Michigan on


Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Little change as northeast winds, at times a bit gusty, will
continue across the big waters for the next few days. Combination of
winds and waves will result in small craft advisory conditions on
portions of northern Lake Michigan (today and tonight) and Lake
Huron (today through Wednesday morning). Weakening pressure gradient
should result in decreasing wind speeds Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday, with winds slowly backing more northerly through this




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