Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 212306
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Mar 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning and Heavy Rainfall: A surface low
pressure center and a cold front are forming along the Texas coast
this evening. The low pressure is forecast to track northeastward
from the Gulf of Mexico to inland southeastern U.S. Fri night and
Sat. Winds will expand in coverage ahead of the cold front that
will trail from the low over the western waters, reaching from
near 31N72W to eastern Cuba by late Sun. Gale conditions will be
possible over most of the northern and central zones with the
southerly winds Fri through Sat. Strong to near gale NW to N winds
and rough seas will follow this front. Additionally, widespread
showers and strong thunderstorms, some potentially severe, on Fri
and Sat will impact southern Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba and
nearby waters.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
plan their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

In addition, please refer to bulletins and advisories from the
local Weather Service Offices that are in the expected heavy
rainfall impact areas for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 07N16W and continues southwestward to 03N30W. The
ITCZ continues from 03N30W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed within 100 nm of either side of the ITCZ,
west of 32W. A large area of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is also observed south of 06N and east of 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the special features section regarding the upcoming
heavy rain event.

The pressure gradient between the lower pressures over
southeastern Texas and higher pressure over the western Atlantic
is supporting fresh SE winds west of 90W and N of 25N, with
moderate seas over these waters. Numerous moderate convection is
observed across the northwestern Gulf to 85W, north of 25N.
Elsewhere, moderate easterly winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the low pressure forming along the Texas coast
is forecast to track northeastward from the NW Gulf of Mexico to
inland southeastern U.S. Fri night and Sat. The trailing cold
front will reach from SW Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico Fri
morning, from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico Sat
morning, and exit the basin late Sat afternoon. Strong to near
gale-force southerly winds are forecast ahead of the front, with
fresh to strong northerly winds behind it. Widespread showers and
strong thunderstorms, some potentially severe, are expected with
the low center and the cold front. Mariners should monitor these
hazardous marine conditions and plan their routes accordingly.
High pressure in the wake of the front will quickly shift eastward
from late Sat night through Sun night, allowing for fresh to
strong southerly winds to develop over the western Gulf. These
winds will shift to the central and eastern Gulf Mon and Mon night
as a cold front moves across the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad high pressure over the western Atlantic extends southward
to over the extreme northern Caribbean Sea. Fresh trades are
ongoing in the south-central Caribbean and Windward Passage, with
mainly moderate trades elsewhere. Sea are moderate in the central
and SW basin, with slight seas in the eastern and NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will
continue near the coast of Colombia through Sat night, then
diminish to moderate to fresh Sun and Sun night. Moderate to fresh
trades are expected elsewhere over the east and central Caribbean
while gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the NW
Caribbean. Fresh to strong southeast to south winds will develop
in the northwest Caribbean and in the Yucatan Channel by early Fri
as low pressure and its attendant cold front move across the Gulf
of Mexico. This front will reach the Yucatan Channel and the far
northwestern Caribbean on Sat afternoon, extend for eastern Cuba
to the Gulf of Honduras on Sun, then stall and dissipate by Mon.
Fresh southeast winds will develop over most of the western
Caribbean Mon and Mon night, with the exception of fresh to strong
winds near the northeast coast of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the special features section about the upcoming
western Atlantic Gale warning and heavy rain event.

A cold front extends from near 31N52W southwestward to 22N61W,
where it transitions to a stationary front to the northern coast
of Dominican Republic. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are
observed moving eastward ahead of the front to 44W and north of
25N. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are occurring ahead of the
front to 49W, mainly north of 25N. Moderate seas are noted over
these waters. Broad high pressure dominates the remainder of the
western Atlantic west of the front, along with moderate or weaker
anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas.

A strong 1033 mb high pressure system near the Azores continues
to be the most prominent feature in the rest of the tropical
Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures in western Africa support fresh to strong NE to E winds
north of 17N and east of 35W. Rough seas are found over these
waters. Moderate trades and moderate seas are observed across the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, by Fri morning, the northern part of the front
will shift E of the area, while the southern part will remain
nearly stationary along the northern coast of Hispaniola. The
front will dissipate E of the area on Sat. High pressure in the
wake of the front will quickly move eastward through Fri night,
allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop E of
Florida as low pressure tracks northeastward from the Gulf of
Mexico to inland the southeastern U.S. Fri night into Sat. These
winds will expand in coverage ahead the trailing cold front over
the western waters. The front will reach from near 31N72W to
eastern Cuba on Sun morning, and from 31N70W to the Windward
Passage by Mon morning. Gale force winds and rough to very rough
seas are expected ahead of the front in the southerly wind flow
Fri through Sat. Strong to near gale force northeast winds and
rough seas will follow this front.

$$
Konarik


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