785
FXUS61 KBGM 030726
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
326 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue through Friday along with above
normal temperatures. A brief cool down with rain showers is
expected for the weekend, especially Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1000 PM Update...
At 7 PM, conditions, upwind satellite, and model trends
supported a longer period of clear sky this evening followed by
a more gradual increase in high thin clouds. Sky forecast was
adjusted accordingly, with low temperatures down another 1-2
degrees given a bit more radiational cooling under weak high
pressure overnight. Sheltered valleys of the Susquehanna
headwater valleys could reach down to around 40 degrees.
Forecast still on track as of 10 PM so no additional
adjustments needed.

Previous discussion...
Dry weather and mostly clear skies is expected tonight along
with lows in the 40s.

High pressure moves east of the area on Friday, resulting in a
southeasterly return flow. This will bring slightly warmer
conditions to the area. Increasing moisture may bring some
cloud cover, but skies should still at least be partly sunny.
Highs are expected to be in the 70s for most of the area.

A slow moving cold front will approach the area Friday night,
which will allow for increasing clouds. By late Friday
night/early Saturday morning, a few rain showers may reach areas
west of I-81, but the majority of the rain showers should hold
off until the daytime on Saturday. Lows are expected to be in
the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM Update...

A slow-moving warm front sweeping east across the area Saturday
night into Sunday will keep showers going. late Sunday into
Sunday evening a cold front will bring more showers and a few
thunderstorms. Both fronts aren`t strong. despite a decent
southwest low level flow of warm moist air pwats peak around
1.2". The upper level flow is zonal so these systems keep
moving. Storm total rainfall for Friday night to Sunday night
will be mostly under and inch. May have to watch to see how much
thunderstorms will drop late Sunday but can easily take a quick
inch. The vegetation green up is taking up more ground moisture
and letting less rain run off.

Saturday night lows will be from the mid 40s to around 50.
Sunday will be cloudy with high from the mid 50s to low 60s.
Sunday night lows mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Monday and Monday night a secondary cold front could bring some
scattered rain showers. Monday highs from the upper 60s to mid
70s with more sunshine. Monday night lows from the mid 40s in
Oneida County to the mid 50s in the Wyoming Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM Update...

Timing differences on the next system with the GFS the fastest.
Leaned slower toward the ECMWF and CanNH. A warm front moves
through with showers Tuesday night to Wednesday evening. An
occluded front goes through Thursday with more rain.
Thunderstorms are possible in the afternoons and early
evenings. The upper level flow is mostly zonal but a trough
approaches the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes late in
this period.

High will mostly in the 70s with lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the period. High pressure
exits the region late today and a frontal system will be pushing
rain showers into the region overnight. However, at this time,
these showers will either move in just before the end of the
period (06Z Sat) or a little later Saturday morning, so left
them out of the forecast for now and will reassess for the 12Z
forecast.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday night...A couple passing frontal
boundaries will result in scattered showers and restrictions,
especially Saturday night onward. Isolated thunderstorms will
also be possible.

Monday through Tuesday...Mostly dry Monday to midday Tuesday,
but increasing chance of rain and restrictions Tuesday afternoon
through night. Embedded thunder also possible late Tuesday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MPK