Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
340 FXUS65 KBOI 110811 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 211 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...An upper level ridge to our north will weaken and move south overhead by late Sunday. This will bring dry and increasingly warmer weather. Sunday night, an upper level trough will begin to move onto the coast and then across our area Monday. This will bring showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to part of the area (generally within about 50 miles of the NV/ID border), and a few degrees of cooling. Dry northwest flow behind the trough will be with us Monday night. Winds will be generally weak, but increase to 10-15 kt Sunday east of Mountain Home, and 15-20 kt Monday in the same area. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Tuesday will begin with dry NW flow aloft as a strong ridge off the coast drifts slowly east. Models still diverge strongly Wed, with some indicating the ridge will remain strong enough to keep us warm and dry through Thursday, while others bring a strong trough into SW Canada and associated westerly flow over our area. The GFS ensembles favor the stronger ridge, while the EC ensembles favor stronger westerly flow. Even though machine learning models also favor the EC ensemble mean, the NBM temps are more in line with the GFS ensemble mean, and therefore seem to keep temps too warm Wed-Thu. We have cooled temps down a few degrees. Almost all models are cooler by Fri/Sat, so no adjustments were made for those days. Little precipitation is in the current long term forecast, but this is likely to be adjusted upward in the northern mountains in the coming days. && .AVIATION...VFR. Sfc winds: NW-NE up to 10 kt, becoming W to NW 10-15 kt from KMUO to KJER/KTWF after 10/18Z. Winds at 10k ft MSL: variable up to 10 kt, becoming NW 5-15 kt by 11/00Z. KBOI...VFR. Sfc winds: SE around 5 kt, becoming NW around 5 kt around 17Z. .SUNDAY OUTLOOK...VFR under mostly clear skies. Surface winds 5-15 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...SP LONG TERM....SP AVIATION.....SP