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Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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Spot Forecast for Frances Crane WMA North Rx Burn...MassWildlife
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
431 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on March 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service.


.DISCUSSION...

Another dry day across northwest Massachusetts, any lingering
gusts this morning diminishes shortly after sunrise. Still, expect
westerly wind around 15 mph. Minimum relative humidities range
from 25 to 35 percent today.

.OUTLOOK...Saturday through Tuesday...

A prolong period of wet weather is possible late tonight through
Saturday, then drying out on Sunday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 38.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Dewpoint............7 increasing to 16.
Min apparent temp...15.
Surface winds (mph).West winds 9 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 9 to 13 mph late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 12 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 9 to 13 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 14 to 22 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 13 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (24600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (60300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................15 increasing to 60 to 68 early in the morning,
                    then decreasing to 45 to 52 late in the morning
                    decreasing to 38 to 43 early increasing to 46
                    to 54 decreasing to 34 to 42 late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25 decreasing to 20 early in the afternoon,
                    then increasing to 25 late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........0   0   1   1   2   2   3   8   23  32  47  44
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............26  26  27  28  31  33  35  37  38  38  38  38
Dewpoint........8   8   7   6   6   5   6   8   9   11  14  16
RH..............46  46  42  38  34  30  29  29  29  32  37  40
Heat index (F)..15  16  18  18  22  25  27  29  30  31  31  32
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..12  10  9   12  12  10  10  12  13  12  10  9
20 FT wind gust.18  17  16  15  14  14  14  14  15  14  14  14
Surface wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW
Surface wnd spd.12  10  9   12  12  10  10  12  13  12  10  9
Surface wnd gst.18  17  16  15  14  14  14  14  15  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.2
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.22  21  18  16  14  12  13  14  15  14  14  13
LVORI...........2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............15  68  60  52  45  38  43  48  54  46  42  34
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..60  56  49  43  37  31  37  42  48  39  33  25
Ventrate Cat....GD  FR  FR  FR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  PR  PR  PR
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  20  25  25  25  25

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 34.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Dewpoint............19 increasing to 27.
Min apparent temp...28.
Surface winds (mph).Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    south 6 to 9 mph early in the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    south 6 to 9 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 14 mph shifting to the south
                    around 15 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (20200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (8000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................8 to 15.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......20 decreasing to 11 early in the evening, then
                    decreasing to 9.0 early decreasing to 8.0 late
                    in the evening decreasing to 7.0 decreasing to
                    6.0 after midnight increasing to 7.0 increasing
                    to 8.0 early in the morning.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........54  59  69  66  65  75  65  71  92  92  91  91
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............36  35  34  34  34  34  34  35  34  35  36  37
Dewpoint........17  19  20  21  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28
RH..............45  52  56  58  58  61  64  64  69  69  69  70
Heat index (F)..29  28  28  28  29  29  29  30  29  30  30  30
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   SE
20 FT wind spd..10  8   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   8   9
20 FT wind gust.14  14  14  13  12  12  10  10  10  12  13  14
Surface wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   SE
Surface wnd spd.10  8   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   8   9
Surface wnd gst.14  14  14  13  12  12  10  10  10  12  13  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.13  14  14  13  13  12  12  12  12  13  14  15
LVORI...........2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............14  15  9   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   12  13
Haines index....4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..20  17  13  11  10  8   9   10  10  11  12  13
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Ceiling (kft)...20  11  9.0 8.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 8.0

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain likely in the morning, then rain
                    in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 100 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........69 percent.
Dewpoint............32 increasing to 47.
Min apparent temp...31.
Surface winds (mph).Southeast winds 10 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph shifting to the south 18 to 20
                    mph with gusts to around 39 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 20 mph with gusts to
                    around 39 mph.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7800 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................14 to 21 increasing to 24 to 28 in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......6.0 decreasing to 0.8.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........92     95     96     97     100    100
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      90     90     90     100    100
Temp............38     40     45     48     50     51
Dewpoint........30     34     39     43     45     46
RH..............73     79     79     83     83     83
Heat index (F)..31     32     38     41     44     51
20 ft wind......SE 10  SE 14  SE 16  SE 18  S 20   S 20
20 ft wind gust.16     22     25     29     35     38
Surface wind....SE 10  SE 14  SE 16  SE 18  S 20   S 20
Surface wnd gst.16     22     25     29     35     38
Mix hgt (ft)....900    700    500    400    400    400
Transport wind..S 16   S 20   S 23   S 25   S 24   S 25
LVORI...........3      3      3      3      3      3
ADI.............14     21     25     28     27     28
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..12     11     10     10     9      8
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR
Ceiling (kft)...6.0    4.0    3.0    2.0    1.5    1.0

$$
Forecaster...Dooley
Requested by...Alex Entrup
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2408133.0/BOX
.DELDT 03/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL alex.entrup@mass.gov


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