Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 280931
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
431 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

A dry and tranquil weather pattern is expected to continue through
the short term forecast period as influences from a high pressure
system remains in place. Gusty southerly winds will be the main show
in town on Friday as the surface pressure gradient tightens over the
region. Forecast models have backed off on the strength in winds on
Friday from the past 24 hours, keeping expected wind gusts (30-40
mph) just under Advisory levels. Sampled low level jet (850 mb)
winds range between 20-30 kts. Will allow for the day shift to
further evaluate future computer runs to see whether or not an
Advisory is needed. Regardless, Friday will still feature breezy
conditions with south-southeast winds 20-30 mph gusting up to 40
mph.

Temperatures will remain seasonable through the short term period.
Daytime high temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 80s
(cooler along/near the coast). Overnight low temperatures tonight
will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s (warmer along/near the coast).
Finally, highs on Friday are expected to be in the low to mid 80s
(cooler along/near the coast).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

The main concern in this portion of the total forecast continues
to be wind. Gulf of Mexico high pressure will interact with low
pressure over inland Mexico to create an enhanced pressure
gradient, with this gradient anticipated to be the strongest on
Monday. As a result, a WIND ADVISORY will possibly be needed on
this day for the three immediate coastal counties (Cameron,
Willacy, Kenedy).

Otherwise, the only other notable event during the period will be
the Monday night passage of a cold front. In advance of the
front, winds downsloping off of the neighboring higher terrain of
Mexico will produce a heat spike, and well above normal high
temperatures are a distinct possibility for Monday.

Finally, with a breezy to windy onshore flow forecast, there will
likely be a MODERATE RISK to HIGH RISK of rip currents at the
local beaches for the long term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Through 06z Friday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout the 06z TAF cycle under sunny skies with maybe a few
cirrus clouds at times as a surface high pressure system remains in
control over the region.

Winds will be out of the east tonight at around 5 kts if not light
and variable. On Thursday, winds will shift out of the southeast
between 5-15 kts. Winds could begin strengthening Thursday night as
the pressure gradient begins to tighten across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

With high pressure in place today, light winds will yield light
to moderate seas and overall favorable marine conditions. Tonight
into Friday, a strengthening pressure gradient will generate
moderate winds which ultimately will yield moderate seas and more
adverse marine conditions. Small craft may need to exercise
caution during the day on Friday.

(Friday Night through Wednesday)
An enhanced pressure gradient will exist over the western Gulf of
Mexico during a majority of the period courtesy of high pressure
over the Gulf of Mexico interacting with low pressure over inland
Mexico. Breezy to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will
prevail along the Lower Texas Coast, with Small Craft Exercise
Caution and Small Craft Advisory likely to be needed. For the
remainder of the period, the Monday night or early Tuesday morning
passage of a cold front may produce another burst of Caution or
Advisory level winds/seas in its wake.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             83  64  80  68 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               85  61  82  64 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 87  63  84  67 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         87  62  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      76  68  73  69 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     81  64  78  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Evbuoma-23
LONG TERM/UPPER AIR...Tomaselli-66


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