557
FXUS62 KCHS 101717
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
117 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push offshore today. High pressure will
prevail for the weekend into early next week. A storm system
could affect the area by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early this afternoon: Radar imagery shows that the large area of
stratiform rainfall from the morning has dissipated and shifted
offshore. We are convection-free right now, and should stay that
way for the next few hours. Satellite imagery shows that a
considerable cirrus shield covers the area and this combined
with the stabilizing effect of the morning rainfall will make it
difficult for there to be much recovery. Surface analysis shows
the cold front is still positioned upstream across the Midlands
and is progged to push to the southeast this afternoon and into
the evening. Along the front, isolated to scattered convection
is expected to develop and could impact portions of the area
late this afternoon and into the evening. While we should have
sufficient instability develop to support convection, the
potential for severe weather is certainly low. The greatest risk
for thunderstorms, and a strong to marginally severe storm, is
the Charleston Tri-County region and Colleton County. This area
lines up very well with the updated Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook
from SPC, and is highlighted in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Temperatures have been held down and slow to rise thanks to the
morning rainfall, but we should still have time to warm into the
low 80s.

The cold front is timed to push off the coast by midnight. In
the wake of the front, winds should shift from the north with
steady CAA. Given ongoing CAA through daybreak Saturday, low
temperatures are forecast to generally range from the mid 50s
inland to around 60 along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday and Sunday: Broad troughing will prevail aloft through
the weekend, with high pressure building in at the surface.
With high pressure dominating at the surface, the weekend will
feature a rather benign weather pattern. Temperatures on
Saturday will actually be much cooler than the previous week,
owing to FROPA on Friday night. Highs on Saturday are forecast
to peak in the mid to upper 70s. Sunday will be slightly warmer,
with highs in the low 80s. Sunshine will be plentiful,
accompanied by a rain-free forecast.

Monday: The upper level pattern shifts a tad on Monday, with
models indicating a few shortwave troughs could ripple across
the forecast area. This could provide enough forcing for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures
are forecast to reach into the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Beginning Monday night the forecast turns more active as a warm
front approaches the forecast area from the south. Aloft, a
mid-level trough is forecast to swing through the southeastern
states through Thursday. MOisture is expected to build into the
region after the warm front lifts northward, with PWATs
approaching 2". Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected as the region remains well within the warm sector with
plentiful moisture, aided from the approaching mid-level trough.
Temperatures are expected to gradually warm through the period,
with upper 70s to low 80s on Tuesday warming to the mid to
upper 80s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions should prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through
18z Saturday. The main forecast challenge will be the potential
for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon and early this evening, primarily near KCHS and KJZI.
We have added in a few hours of VCSH as the confidence of direct
impacts at KCHS and KJZI remains low. A thunderstorm will be
possible too, but chances aren`t high enough to include a
mention of TSRA. Whatever activity does develop will shift
offshore in the evening and the rest of the period will be dry.
Skies will clear out overnight as well. Winds will turn
northwesterly and then northerly overnight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through
the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms could bring flight
restrictions to the terminals Monday afternoon into the middle
of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds should remain from west-southwest between 15-20 kts. Wave
heights are forecast to range between 3-4 ft. This evening, a
cold front will approach from the northwest, timed to reach the
coast around midnight. The front should rapidly sweep across the
marine zones, turning winds from the north. Speeds will favor
values between 15 to 20 kts, gusts could reach 25 kts at times.
Seas will change very little overnight, remaining between 2-4
ft.

Saturday through Wednesday: Generally tranquil marine
conditions are forecast through the weekend as high pressure
extends over the local forecast area. Winds will generally be
around 10 knots, with seas averaging 1 to 2 feet. Monday night S
to SE winds will surge slightly as a warm front lifts northward
through the region, generally around 15 knots with some gusts
around 20 knots. Seas will also increase, averaging 3 to 4 feet.
These conditions will persist into the middle of the week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH/NED
SHORT TERM...CPM
LONG TERM...CPM
AVIATION...BSH/CPM
MARINE...CPM/NED