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000
FXUS61 KCLE 131949
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
349 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge will build over the region early this evening
and shift to the mid Atlantic coast by Sunday morning. Meanwhile low
pressure will track southeast across the northern Great Lakes to New
York by Sunday evening. A trailing cold front will drop south
through the region Sunday night and high pressure will build into
the region on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Fair weather is expected for much of tonight as a ridge of high
pressure moves overhead and to the mid Atlantic coast by
morning. A weak diffuse warm front will lift northeast late
tonight and early Sunday morning and may produce a few showers
mainly over Lake Erie and nw PA. Much warmer air will advect
into the region in the wake of the warm front. Instability will
increase in the afternoon with CAPE reaching 1000-1500 J/KG.
Deeper wind shear will increase to near 40 knots. As a cold
front approaches the region in the mid afternoon, scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly east of I-71. The
ample wind shear will help organize and sustain storms. There
is mainly a marginal threat of severe weather (hail and damaging
wind) as the convection develops and intensify in the CWA
before moving to the east.

The front will drop south through the area Sunday night and the
chance of showers and storms will end by midnight.

High temperatures will range from near 65 at the nw PA shoreline
to near 80 at FDY. Low temperatures tonight and Sunday night
will mainly be in the 40s, except slightly cooler in nw PA this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper ridge building into the Great Lakes region on Monday will
allow for surface high pressure to remain strong across the area and
have a dry forecast for Monday and Monday night. Temperatures on
Monday will be slightly cooler than Sunday behind a cold front with
more noticeably cooler temperatures in NE OH and NW PA, where the
front will be stronger and precipitation on Sunday will help
temperatures tumble. For Tuesday, the former cold front from Sunday
will lift north to the lake as a warm front. There could be some
rain showers with this front and perhaps some thunder, depending on
how much instability returns to the region. THe main upper trough
and low will begin to enter late in the period and have PoPs
increasing appropriately.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

The most active system of the week will be largely into the forecast
area on Wednesday as an upper trough will support a low pressure
system into the Great Lakes region. A high PoP for showers and
thunderstorms is reflected in the forecast for Wednesday with the
system in the region. There could be some stronger convection with
good jet energy across the region. The question will once again be
instability, especially with the system timing across the area. The
system will trek east Wednesday night into Thursday and have
decreasing PoPs back to chance levels as the system departs. The
next upper trough digs into the upper Midwest for Friday into
Saturday and will bring another system to the region with some
marginal rain chances at this time. The more notable feature with
this system will be the return of cooler temperatures, perhaps
cooler than normal for the weekend into next week. There will be
some frost/freeze potential depending on how the set up evolves.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
High pressure ridge from near CHI to western KY will shift east
over the region this evening and provide clear skies. Low
clouds near 4000 ft on the western edge of the Quebec low will
shift east of KERI and KYNG by 20Z leaving clear skies for most
of the overnight. Clouds and moisture will increase over
northern Ohio and nw PA toward 12Z as a weak warm front lifts
northeast across Lake Erie. A few showers may accompany the
front. Low pressure will track southeast toward NY and a
trailing cold front will move into the region Sunday afternoon
and trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly east of
I-77.

VFR conditions will prevail through 18Z Sun with scattered MVFR
ceilings and vsbys in showers/thunderstorms from 18Z-06Z Mon.

WNW winds of 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots will diminish
toward sunset and become southwest near 10 knots. Southwesterly
winds will increase on Sunday to 15-20 knots with gusts to near
30 knots.


Outlook...Non-VFR expected with showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Brisk westerly winds will continue across the lake this afternoon
and evening, but the wind trend has been down as the main
problematic system exits to the east. Will maintain just a sliver of
a Small Craft Advisory for the eastern portions of the lake through
this evening for where 20 kt+ winds and some elevated waves will
remain through sunset. A weak low will pass north of the lake on
Sunday and extend a cold front across the basin. This feature will
generate some showers and storms and winds will increase from the
southwest ahead of the front - close to Small Craft Advisory levels.
With the frontal passage, the winds will veer to the north and
decrease. High pressure will be across the region on Monday and
allow for light flow, eventually shifting to southerly. A warm front
will lift to the lake on Tuesday and promote easterly flow across
the basin. The front will lift north of the lake for Wednesday as a
low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes region and there
will be concern for a marine headline with that system.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ145-
     146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LaPlante
NEAR TERM...LaPlante
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...LaPlante
MARINE...Sefcovic