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000
FXUS64 KCRP 241843
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
143 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Mid/upper level ridge over South Texas this afternoon will shift
to East Texas on Thursday as next trough advances into the
central Rockies. This will result in the development of a surface
low in the Lee of the Rockies and gradual strengthening low level
flow across the southern plains into South Texas through Thursday
afternoon. Given the strengthening moist southerly flow and strong
low level capping inversion, expect a stratus cloud deck to
redevelop over the forecast area tonight with clouds lingering
most of Thursday, with the exception of the west where some
clearing is expected. Winds will gust around 25-35 mph on Thursday
but are not expected to reach wind advisory levels. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are expected over the southern bays on
Thursday expanding to the gulf waters Thursday Night. A s/w will
track to the north of our forecast area Thursday night with a less
than 10% chance for convection developing across the northwest
brush country. Given the subsident flow aloft, continued warming
will occur out west on Thursday with max temps in the mid 90s and
heat indices reaching the triple digits. Elsewhere mid 80s are
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Key Messages:

-Medium to high chance for Wind Advisory Conditions for portions of
the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads Friday and Saturday

-Very warm conditions Saturday with highs around 100 degrees out west

The forecast looks to remain on track from the previous issuance. A
series of upper level short waves will move across the area. This
will be in conjunction with above normal PWAT values (1.7-1.9
inches). This will allow for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly along the northern portions of the CWA and
Victoria Crossroads Friday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Models
(GFS/ECMWF) depict a surface low developing out west on Friday and
lingering through Saturday. This will enhance the tightening of the
pressure gradient over the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads
which will cause some periods of Wind Advisory Conditions.
Conditions over the waters will be SCEC to SCA in response to the
elevated winds Friday through Monday.

Expect hot weather through the long term with highs expected to be
in the 80s and 90s each day with 100s out west Saturday. It appears
that summer made an early appearance this year with all of the heat
that we have been experiencing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Expect mostly cloudy skies with MVFR ceilings becoming VFR in the
next few hours as mixing continues. Southeast winds could gust
around 20 knots at times through early evening. Low MVFR ceilings
will redevelop along the coast this evening becoming IFR near the
VCT Terminal late. Clouds will persist through midday Thursday
before gradually lifting. Expect winds to be stronger on Thursday
gusting in 25-30 knot range by afternoon as the pressure gradient
tightens in response to low pressure in the Rockies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow expected tonight. Generally
moderate onshore flow will develop Thursday afternoon, as an upper
level disturbance approaches the southwestern United States.
Onshore flow is forecast to strengthen to moderate to strong
levels Thursday night, with periods of Small Craft Advisory or
Caution conditions persisting through Sunday. Winds will weaken
into more moderate levels Sunday night and into weak to moderate
by Monday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
daily Sunday through Tuesday as a weak disturbance moves over the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    73  86  74  86 /   0  10   0  10
Victoria          70  85  72  84 /   0   0   0  10
Laredo            73  94  73  95 /   0   0  10  10
Alice             71  89  72  91 /   0   0   0  10
Rockport          72  82  73  83 /  10  10   0  10
Cotulla           74  94  74  93 /   0   0  10  10
Kingsville        72  88  72  90 /   0   0   0  10
Navy Corpus       74  83  75  83 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM/75
LONG TERM....NP/92
AVIATION...JM/75