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000
FXUS64 KCRP 240940
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
440 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Deterministic models predict a slowly progressive pattern over
the CONUS during the period, with an upper level ridge (with N-S
axis) is expected to move eastward across the central CONUS
(including TX) today, while an upper level disturbance enters the
west coast tonight then approaches the Four Corners region
Thursday. Although above normal PWAT values are expected to
persist over the CWA during the period, no significant
precipitation expected owing to significant CIN/subsidence today,
and greater CIN Thursday. In response to the foregoing upper
disturbance to the west, breezy/windy conditions are expected over
the CWA Thursday afternoon. Yet, Elevated fire weather conditions
are not expected due to elevated relative humidity values. The
nearness to the full moon and increasing onshore wind speeds will
contribute to a Moderate risk of rip currents Thursday. Will
retain the NBM maximum temperatures today/Thursday over the CWA,
which are slightly warmer than both the HREF and SREF ensemble
mean values.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Key Messages:

- Medium to high chance of patches of Wind Advisory conditions
  Thursday night into Friday.

- Very warm on Saturday with highs nearing the triple digits out
  west.

Not much of a change from previous Extended forecast package. A
series of mid to upper level disturbances will combine with pockets
of above normal moisture to provide a slight chance (20-30%) for
showers and thunderstorms Friday and again Sunday through Tuesday. A
few frontal boundaries will also accompany the upper level systems
Friday and Sunday, but these will generally only make it into
portions of the Rio Grande Plains. Aside from this, the main hazard
through the long-term range is a strong southeasterly flow
developing and leading to brief periods of Wind Advisory conditions
over portions of the Brush Country Thursday night and across the
Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads on Friday. Winds are also
forecast to be elevated across the coastal waters through the entire
cycle leading to SCEC to SCA conditions. Otherwise, expect
increasingly warmer temperatures into the weekend with a medium
chance (50%) of maximums exceeding 100 degrees across the west on
Saturday, or 95 degrees or above daily through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A continued mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings prevail over South Texas
at the beginning of the 06Z TAF cycle. MVFR conditions will
continue with periods of VFR through late tonight, with VFR
conditions lingering for COT and LRD. MVFR ceilings will finally
develop over these western sites shortly after sunrise. As
previously mentioned, brief periods of IFR conditions are possible
across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads in the predawn
hours, but low confidence will keep the mention out of the TAFS
for all but VCT, where a TEMPO for IFR ceilings is in place from
08Z-11Z. VFR conditions will return shortly after midday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow expected today and tonight.
Generally moderate onshore flow will develop Thursday afternoon,
as an upper level disturbance approaches the southwestern United
States. Onshore flow is forecast to strengthen to moderate to
strong levels Thursday night, with periods of Small Craft Advisory
or Caution conditions persisting through Sunday. Winds will
weaken into more moderate levels Sunday night and into weak to
moderate by Monday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible daily Sunday through Tuesday as a weak disturbance moves
over the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    86  72  85  73 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          85  70  84  72 /  10   0   0   0
Laredo            93  72  94  74 /   0   0   0  10
Alice             88  71  90  72 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          83  72  82  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           92  73  95  74 /   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        87  72  87  74 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       83  74  83  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WC/87
LONG TERM....ANM/88
AVIATION...LS