129
FXUS63 KDDC 301012
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
512 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record or near record high temperatures possible near the
  Oklahoma border today. At Medicine Lodge today, the record
  high is 95 degrees set back in 1959. The current forecast high
  today is 94.

- Elevated to near critical fire risk south of the Arkansas
  river today.

- There is a marginal risk (<15%) for severe thunderstorms east
  of highway 183, mainly in Barber and Pratt counties

- An enhance risk for severe thunderstorms will exist across
  southwest Kansas on Wednesday. There is a 30-45% chance for
  large hail and a 10% chance that this hail will be greater
  than 2".

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Ensembles remain in good agreement this morning with a cold
front moving across southwest Kansas today as an upper level
trough/low, located over Montana/Wyoming at 06z, moves east into
the northern Plains. CAMS are in better agreement today
compared to yesterday with the timing of this cold front, but
still, some minor differences are observed in this boundary`s
location between 21z today and 00z Wednesday.

At this time, all the short term models agree the front will be
south of Dodge City, but the uncertainty is how far south. If
the further north solution turns out to be more correct, then
more widely scattered storms will be possible across south
central Kansas, while the further south solution would result
in only isolated storms. These storms will also be concentrated
near the Oklahoma border. Both solutions support large hail
(1-2) being the main hazard should storms develop. Based on
these solutions and the overlap of storm potential in Barber and
Pratt Counties, we will continue with a chance (20-30%) for
thunderstorms with isolated severe being possible between 4 pm
and 9 pm.

Both solutions of this surface boundary will also support
keeping winds light enough that, even with humidity values
falling back into the 10 to 15 percent range south of a Syracuse
to Dodge City to Pratt line, the fire risk today will only be
elevated to near critical. Finally for today...unseasonably
warm temperatures will also be something to pay attention to
near the Oklahoma border. It looks like as temperatures climb
into the mid 90s, a few record temperatures may be in jeopardy.
At Medicine Lodge today, the record high is 95 degrees set back
in 1959. The current forecast high today is 94.

Low confidence still exists on how things will unfold on
Wednesday. Several of the CAMS have a deep layer of low level
moisture returning to southwest Kansas with even a 20-30% chance
for some light (0.01) precipitation occurring from this deep
layer of moisture between 12z and 18z Wednesday. Looking at
various HREF soundings from the DESI, it does look like moisture
will be increasing, more so than the previous run; however,
unsure if the depth will be enough for widespread measurable
precipitation. In addition there will also be a chance for some
elevated convection to develop as 850-700mb warm air advection
and moisture transport improves under 7-8C/km 700-500mb lapse
rates. Main limiting factor to this morning convection is the
widespread CIN the NAM also has in the 850-700mb level. Still if
we are able to get some isolated to widely scattered elevated
convection to develop then the potential does exist for seeing
large hail from these morning storms.

Now given the widespread low clouds and chance for elevated
convection early Wednesday morning north of our surface boundary
that will be located near the Oklahoma border the next question
is with these low clouds and light precipitation north of the
surface boundary near the Oklahoma border early in the day, then
will we really see this surface boundary lift as far north as
the majority of the CAMS suggest? Also, if it does, will we have
time to recover enough for storms to develop? At this time, I
am unsure, but the potential does exist, and if we can get
storms to develop, conditions will be favorable for seeing hail
greater than 2 and strong gusty winds. Given the potential for
very large hail, I am unable to disagree with SPC on severe
weather hazards, just unsure how widespread and exactly where
the better chances will be. Even with these uncertainties, the
enhanced risk is warranted at this time, and anyone with travel
or outdoor plans on Wednesday should pay special attention to
any and all updates.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

During the latter half of the workweek, ensemble clusters
generally agree on the presence of a -22 to -25C 500mb upper
level trough over the Four Corners region Wednesday night,
lifting northeast into the Western High Plains on Thursday as
another upper level trough descends south towards the Four
Corners region. A cold front crossing southwest Kansas Wednesday
night will likely stall out somewhere across northwest Oklahoma
and the central Panhandle of Texas as surface pressures fall
along the higher terrain of the central Rockies in response to
the next approaching upper level system. Currently, confidence
is not high regarding how far south this cold front will move
before stalling out, given the uncertainty of how convection
will evolve in the warm sector/dryline on Wednesday and the
minor timing issues with this next upper level system as it
approaches the Four Corners Area Friday. Even given this low
confidence it looks like the majority of the clusters do agree
that moisture and lift north of the surface boundary develops on
Thursday as the next upper level trough moves east into the
central Rockies. This will continue to improve on Friday based
on the improving moist upslope flow ahead of the upper level
trough as it moves out into the Western High Plains Friday
night. As a result there will be ongoing chances for showers and
thunderstorms across some part of western Kansas late week with
the best chance for rain being Friday night into early
Saturday.


The clouds, possible precipitation, and cooler temperatures
late in the week will give way to warmer temperatures over the
weekend as the next upper level trough finally crosses the
Rockies and moves out into the Plains. The timing and strength
of this next upper wave once it crosses the Rockies remain
unclear, given the diverging solutions regarding its strength
and timing. Once this system finally moves out of the Rockies,
the surface boundary will lift back north as a warm front,
bringing warmer temperatures back to southwest Kansas. This may
also maintain the chance for scattered thunderstorms through the
weekend, given the passage of the upper trough and the location
of the surface boundary somewhere in or near southwest Kansas,
especially north and south of the Dodge City area, as indicated
by 50-60% of the ensemble clusters. It may also be necessary to
monitor the chance for a few severe thunderstorms late this
weekend, given the increasing chances of wind shear >30 knots
and 500mb surface based CAPE. The chances are low (20-40%), but
it`s something to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Southeast winds at around 15 knots early this Tuesday morning
will shift to the west between 14z and 18z today as a dryline
moves across southwest Kansas. A cold front will then cross
southwest Kansas during the afternoon. As this cold front passes
the westerly winds at around 15 knots will then shift to the
north. After sunset the north winds will gradually veer to the
southeast by 06z Wednesday. VFR conditions can be expected
through at least 06z Wednesday. As the southeasterly winds
develop an area of low clouds (<2000ft AGL) will begin to spread
into southwest Kansas. after 09z the HREF chance for ceilings
below 2000ft AGL jumps from <10% to 50-70%, especially in the
Dodge City and Hays areas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert