054
FXUS63 KDDC 071936
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
236 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High fire danger this afternoon west of Highway 283

- Dry again tomorrow but light northerly winds

- Dry for the remainder of the work week

- Rain chances increase this weekend into next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A weak disturbance moving around the upper level low over the
Northern Plains will help push a cold front through the area this
evening. This feature will create enough lift for mid level clouds
to envelop the northern half to two thirds of the CWA this evening
into the early overnight hours.  There may be a few light showers
that make it to the ground along the I-70 corridor but have only
left ghost pops for this region at this time. These clouds should
dissipate or move out of the area after might leaving mostly clear
skies across western Kansas through tomorrow. Winds behind this
frontal boundary will shift to the north to northwest this
evening and continue through tomorrow night. As for
temperatures, lows tonight look to range from around 40 degrees
across west central Kansas to low 50s across south central
Kansas. Highs tomorrow will be slightly cooler than what we saw
today and range from around 70 degrees across west central
Kansas to around 80 degrees across south central Kansas. Lows
tomorrow night will dip into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Dry conditions continue through the remainder of the work week
as high pressure builds over the Plains. This will lead to
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds.
An upper level low will spin above the four corners region
during this time frame then trek closer to the area this weekend
into the first part of next week. As this low gets closer, weak
disturbances may swing into the area bringing a chance of
precipitation to western Kansas. Otherwise expect an increase
in cloudiness. Temperatures throughout the long term will
generally be in the 70s Thursday and Friday with upper 70s to
low 80s Saturday. 80s return as highs Sunday into the first part
of next week. Lows will start out in the 40s with some 50s
across the eastern half of the CWA this weekend into the first
part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period with mid
level cloudiness increasing this evening into the early
overnight period across the DDC, GCK, and HYS terminals. These
clouds should dissipate or move out of the area after by sunrise
tomorrow. Winds will generally be from a westerly direction this
afternoon, shifting to the north or northwest behind a weak cold
front this evening into the overnight period. Wind gusts above
20 knots are expected this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Very dry conditions both This afternoon and Wednesday
afternoon. The difference is Today will be quite windy,
resulting in the conditions exceeding the red flag criteria
across the western half of the forecast area (roughly everywhere
west of a line from Wakeeney to Dodge and Ashland, all three
included. The expected much weaker winds on Wednesday afternoon
precludes the need for another warning, however, the conditions
are in the elevated category, meaning open fires can still
quickly escape and area very difficult to control.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99/Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...99/Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
FIRE WEATHER...99/Hovorka_42