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000
FXUS63 KDVN 122236
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
536 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...Updated for 00z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures can be expected through the
  middle of next week, with temperatures increasing into the
  80s!

- Dry conditions through the weekend, with chances for
  precipitation increasing Monday evening and through Tuesday.
  Severe weather will be possible during this timeframe.

- Cooldown expected after the Tuesday system, bringing us back
  closer to seasonal norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Strong low pressure system that impacted the area over the last 24
hours has since moved out, but we continue to see impacts from it.
Strong pressure gradient remains over the area, diminishing slowly
through the day. With the gradient overhead, we will continue to see
gusty northwest winds into the evening. The combination of gusty
northwest winds and lower humidity will yield a very high fire
danger for some areas north of Interstate 80. If burning, take extra
precautions. Aside from that, mostly clear skies will remain and
temperatures will hover around the low-mid 60s this afternoon.
Overnight, skies clear and winds will be light and variable,
allowing temperatures to drop into the mid-upper 30s for most.

Tomorrow, we finally start to see LLVL winds shift southerly. This
will usher in higher temperatures and moisture, allowing
temperatures to increase well above seasonal norms. This will only
be the start of the warm advection, so buckle up, a brief period of
summer-like weather is expected, with many reaching into the 80s
Sunday through Tuesday! Much of Saturday will be mostly clear, with
temperatures increasing into the upper 70s. Dry weather will
prevail, with breezy southerly winds. Otherwise, it is geared to be
a beautiful day.

Get out and enjoy the weekend!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

High pressure will slowly traverse through the north this weekend
and into early next week, prior to the next wave set to impact our
area. With high pressure being overhead, the remainder of the
weekend and into Monday will be quite warm and beautiful, with
temperatures in the 80s. This increase in temperatures is resulting
from strong warm advection into the region, being enhanced by the
approaching wave. Much of the moisture transport will not be
seen until Monday and Tuesday, where we will start to see clouds
push in Monday, with thunderstorms expected that night and
through Tuesday.

Monday night and through Tuesday will be a timeframe to keep in
mind, as confidence is increasing in the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms. Guidance is in relatively good agreement on
this system, aside from some slight timing/track differences.
In either case depicted by deterministic/ensemble guidance, we
will still see the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.
So, there will be at least two rounds of concern with this
system.

The first wave to come through will be Monday night, as we see a
strong push in warm advection, with the warm front pushing north
through our area. This will be a focus for convection, as a strong
LLJ will pump into this frontal boundary, with plenty of lift to see
nocturnal thunderstorms to develop. Overall instability is still not
realized well, but we will gain better confidence as more short term
models are included in the diagnosis. As is usually the case with
nocturnal thunderstorms, we will likely be dealing with hail
potential and frequent lightning. Later in the day Tuesday, our
forecast area will fall under the warm sector of the advancing
surface low. In the warm sector, we should see moderate instability
build, given nocturnal convection and cloud debris move out in the
morning. Sufficient deep layer shear will balance out with the
instability to result in an environment favorable for organized
convection, some of which may be severe. Currently, the timing is
afternoon and evening on Tuesday, but there is plenty of time of
this to change. Given we are 4 days out still, many details are
still unknown. Through the coming days, we will get a better idea of
the environment in place, given more short term guidance being
ingested. The SPC has highlighted our whole area in a Day 5 Slight
Risk for severe weather (level 2/5), which will continue to change
as confidence increases on target areas. Again, just keep this day
in mind and take any necessary precautions.

After this system passes, we will see a cooldown at the end of the
week and into the weekend, bringing us closer to seasonal norms.
Through the long term, we will likely see our share of windy days in
the mix as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions will persist during the period, as a weak ridge of
surface high pressure traverses the region. Gusty northwest winds
will quickly diminish with sunset and become light and variable
by Saturday morning. The winds will shift to southerly in the
wake of the departing ridge on Saturday and increase, with gusts
15-25 kts after 18z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...McClure