Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 271717
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1217 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...Updated for 18z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chilly today with below normal temperatures and winds staying
  gusty at times.

- Near to above normal temperatures for Easter weekend through
  early next week along with a more active weather pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

A blustery and chilly morning is in progress, as cold advection
on gusty northwest winds continues in the wake of the low
pressure system responsible for the rain over the past 24-36+
hrs. Temperatures at 2 AM were mostly in the upper 20s to
lower 30s, which is around 20-25 degrees colder from yesterday
at the same time. Add in the wind gusting still at 20 to 30 mph
and it feels more like the teens for much of the area. GOES
Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows a large area of stratus
remains over the region, but some clearing is taking place to
our west. Have seen a mPing report and an ob or two of a few
flakes upstream of the area, and that will be possible within
the stratus deck.

An upper level low over the Upper Midwest will continue to
shift towards Hudson Bay over the next 24 hours. At the
surface, a ridge of high pressure over the Northern and Central
Plains will shift east into the region. The increasing
subsidence should lead to slowly decreasing clouds and a return
of some sunshine today, followed by a decrease in winds tonight.
Despite the appearance of the sun, it won`t do much to help
temperatures as anomalously cold reservoir of 850 hPa temps
of -5C to -10C will suppress highs into the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Winds should remain gusty into the afternoon although not
nearly as high, but still enough to add a wind chill mostly
in the 30s.

Tonight, should be a much calmer night with winds markedly
lighter as the weak low level ridge axis builds in. Skies
look to start out mostly clear but then turn partly to
possibly even mostly cloudy, as a developing mid level
baroclinic zone and some upper energy rotating down the
backside of the Great Lakes low should foster some cloudiness.
This will make for a challenging low temperature forecast,
with lows ranging from around 20 or lower 20s where skies
remain clear for the longest, to around 30 where the clouds are
more persistent.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Thursday will start the warming trend as winds back to the
west/southwest with a weak frontal zone in proximity.
Highs could have a decent range from north to south across
this firming boundary, with 40s far north to some lower 60s
far south. The lingering baroclinic zone will keep some
clouds around for a partly to mostly sunny day.

Thursday night, we begin to see the first signal for some
precipitation chances as the surface boundary continues
to sharpen up across the region. Models hint at some
warm advection impinging on the boundary and top down
saturation to 850 hPa along with steepening lapse rates,
and both ECMWF and GFS ensembles highlight 20-40% probabilities
for measurable rain with the higher probabilities to our
east. Nonetheless, enough of a signal to add in some 20 PoPs
for now from around the QC metro south/east. Interestingly the
00z deterministic EC has revved up it`s QPF signal 00z-06z
Friday, so we may be continuing to expand and adjust PoPs
upwards for Thursday night pending later model trends.

Friday through Tuesday is shaping up to be an active/unsettled
period of weather. Initially we`ll see our first chance
(40-70%) of showers and thunderstorms Friday night exiting
by early Saturday attendant to a shortwave and synoptic
scale ascent aided by the left exit region of an upper jet
overspreading the surface boundary draped across the region.
A ramping low level jet (40-50 kt) will rapidly transport
moisture northward with PWATs increasing to near 1 inch by
06z Saturday. This should support some pockets of moderate
to heavy potential of 0.5 to 1 inch with the convection.
Surface based instability at this time looks limited, and
deep layer shear not very strong and thus the severe threat
would appear low at this time.

Saturday and Saturday night look to be mainly dry with the
area in the wake of the departing system and well ahead
of our next system emerging from the central Rockies.

Easter Sunday through next Tuesday, there remains quite a bit
of uncertainty in the timing/details but the pattern is
such that the ingredients of baroclinicity, a strong jet,
ample moisture and a trough shifting from the Rockies through
the Midwest exists to support an active/unsettled period
featuring periodic precipitation chances of which could be
moderate to heavy in some areas. There is a signal in some of
the guidance for a phasing of northern and southern streams
leading to a deepening cyclone potentially across portions of
the central/southern U.S. by early next week. If this were to
occur the potential to draw in colder air could add snow in the
mix along with more wind for portions of the Central U.S. aside
from the heavy rain and storm potential. This will definitely be
a period to watch in the coming days!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A scattered to,
at times, broken cumulus field will be possible through the
afternoon. Ceilings are near 3k FT AGL, thus some MVFR
conditions will be possible in some areas. DBQ has a 2900 ft
ceiling with upstream cu field filling in with cigs 2800 to 3400
ft. Opted to keep MVFR cigs at DBQ into mid afternoon.
Elsewhere, scattered cu above 3k FT AGL are expected. West winds
may still gust over 20 KTS through the afternoon, with light
and variable winds beginning this evening.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...14


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