Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 111640
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Valid 111700Z - 121200Z

Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated area further
west into west-central Nebraska to account for latest trends. 12z
HREF guidance indicates high confidence in sustained Elevated
meteorological conditions by the afternoon. Fuels within this region
are sufficiently dry to carry fire spread, supporting the inclusion
of the area. See previous discussion for more information.

..Thornton.. 04/11/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/

...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large
swath of the central Plains this afternoon.

...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota...
06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds
behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection
regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of
cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support
RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25
mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained
elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather
conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the
850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports
and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are
sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern.

...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas...
Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee
side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into
Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of
downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in
the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected
to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$
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