329
FNUS22 KWNS 051807
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS...

The previous forecast remains on track (as outlined below) with only
minor adjustments required to account for trends in recent high-res
guidance as well as rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours across
portions of western TX and far southwest KS. The Elevated risk area
was extended northward into portions of southeast CO/southwest KS,
and elevated fire weather conditions appear likely even further
north along the central to northern High Plains of CO and WY.
However, latest analyses suggests fuels are not as dry with
northward extent, which limits confidence in the overall fire
weather threat.

..Moore.. 05/05/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/

...Synopsis...
An active fire-weather pattern will continue on D2/Monday as a
powerful mid-level trough ejects through the Central Plains.
Associated dry, windy conditions to the west of a dryline will lead
to critical fire-weather conditions across central/eastern NM and
the TX/OK Panhandles.

By peak heating on Tuesday afternoon, the mid-level trough is
expected to become negatively tilted and centered from eastern MT
southeastward through central NE/KS. Upstream of the trough axis, a
belt of 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level flow is expected from
northeastern AZ through the TX/OK Panhandles. Downward momentum
mixing, in conjunction with a tightening surface pressure gradient
and strong isallobaric flow, will yield persistent and strong
surface flow around 20-30 mph during the afternoon and evening. Very
dry conditions are also anticipated, with relative humidities as low
as 5-10 percent. As a result, high confidence exists in critical
meteorological fire-weather conditions across the delineated area.
Locally extremely critical conditions are possible, but a few
factors preclude highlighting a specific area, including:

1. local fuel state due to bands of wetting precipitation from
thunderstorms on Saturday night and Sunday morning, and,
2. whether sustained surface winds will meet extremely critical
conditions (30+ mph) for an extended period of time.

Elevated/critical meteorological fire-weather conditions will likely
develop to the northeast (e.g., southeastern CO and southwestern KS)
and east (e.g., eastern TX/OK Panhandles) of the delineated areas as
the dryline mixes eastward on Monday. However, much of these areas
received around 0.5+ inches of precipitation recently, which should
temper the fire-weather threat immediately behind the dryline.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$