313
FXUS63 KEAX 080548
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1248 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather threat Wednesday morning into the early
  afternoon. The main threats are large hail and gusty winds,
  however a isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

This afternoon, a glancing blow from a surface ridge of high
pressure passing mostly to the south is providing dry weather.
However, the dry weather will be shortlived. Broad upper troughing
exists over the northern Plains. Tonight, a shortwave rounding the
base of the trough will move across the central Plains forcing a
cold front towards the area. Around sunrise tomorrow morning the
shortwave and the associated cold front will move into the area as a
LLJ also noses into the area. This will spark convection during the
morning hours over the southern and eastern CWA. These storms will
have the potential to be severe particularly if the NAM solution
with 3000-3500J/Kg of MUCAPE comes to fruition. The ascent
associated with the LLJ will initially have large hail as the main
threat however, storms are expected to become linear and transition
to a damaging wind threat during the morning hours. In addition with
storms developing in the vicinity of a triple point tornadoes cannot
be completely ruled out. Storms will shift east of the CWA by early
afternoon with highs rising into the mid to upper 70s. Thursday the
upper level trough that was over the northern Plains will move into
the Great Lakes region. A vort max rounding the base of the trough
will move through the area producing diurnal storms and showers.
Cold air advection will keep highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s
Thursday.

Friday and Saturday the area will be under northwest flow aloft
however, with no disturbances in the flow quiet weather is expected
through this period. Highs Friday will be in the upper 60s to low
70s before rising into the low to mid 70s Saturday. Sunday a upper
level trough will dig into the Great Lakes region forcing a back
door cold front into the forecast area. This will bring the chance
for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
This front will remains stall across the area on Monday as a weak
upper level trough move through the region continuing storm chances.
Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Active weather expected after 12Z Thursday as low level moisture
leads to additional thunderstorms mainly east of I-35. Could
see MVFR ceilings and visibility in the convection across
central Missouri. Cold front will shift east across the region
this afternoon. Could see a renewed thunderstorm threat along
and ahead of the front near 21Z this afternoon (mainly east of
highway 65). Northwest winds develop behind the cold front. TAF
sites largely remain west of the expected convection and
impacts, thus VFR conditions should largely reign. &&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...BT