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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 260543
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1143 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Warm and windy conditions will continue through Saturday with the
strongest winds anticipated this afternoon and again Saturday.
Sunday through next week will feature breezy afternoons and
warming temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

UL low is centered roughly over the Four Corners this afternoon
with its jet basically overhead and deepening surface cyclone over
Eastern CO. With frontogenesis occurring across our CWA, it`s
difficult to decisively conclude where the cold front is, but
based on temperatures it`s probably toward the Continental Divide
as of 130PM. Dust sources have activated, so visibility is
degraded. Our wind event is well on its way and will continue
through the remainder of the afternoon. Current wind products look
good though our Texas counties have been a bit slow to respond.
We still think winds will continue to increase for this area.
After sunset, we should begin to see winds gradually subside while
dust settles. Friday will be a relatively quiet day in between
systems, but we`ll remain at the base of the long wave trough with
a 990 mb surface cyclone over the OK Panhandle. No wind products
are anticipated, but the winds will create elevated to locally
critical fire conditions. Dust is also mentioned in the grids.

Saturday looks on pace to be another windy day. Another closed low
will take roughly the same path as today or perhaps a little
farther south. Main jet will swing through across the
International Border with a ~995 mb low expected to form over SW
KS. NBM values are only a few knots lower than today`s event, so
more wind headlines will likely be needed. I will let current wind
products expire before any decisions on where and what type
(warning versus advisory) of headline is needed. Strongest winds
will be across East Slope areas and highest elevations. Gusts look
to range 40 to 50 MPH west and 50 to 60 MPH east, especially the
locations already mentioned. Blowing dust will also likely be a
concern again. The system also appears to have a bit better
moisture, bringing with it slight chances for showers and perhaps
a thunderstorm across the Gila. The Euro drags precip chances all
the way south to the International Border though it appears to be
an outlier.

On Sunday, we`ll remain breezy as we remain at the base of a
trough. Main thrust of energy though will be well to our east, so
winds will be much lighter than the previous days. Sunday will
also be the last day of the forecast period with below normal
temperatures. Height rises will commence while weak W to SW aloft
becomes established ahead of a s/w that is expected to form to our
west. Moisture will try and slip in next week. Models now show
that happening Wednesday. We have reached the time of year when
models will often bring in false dry line intrusion in days 5+,
but that solution will disappear in later runs. We just have to
make it through Saturday before nicer albeit warm weather arrives.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Our low end gusty winds are continuing to slow down. We may see
the guts finally drop off in the next few hours, but it would not
surprise me if we occasionally see some low end gusts through the
reset of the night. If the gusts do drop off, they will come back
by late morning or early afternoon on Friday. But the winds
tomorrow will not be as strong as we saw today. Our ceilings will
stay unlimited tonight and through the day on Friday. VFR
conditions are expected to continue through Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

FRIDAY...ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL...Winds subside for
tomorrow, but will remain breezy, topping out in the 17 to 22 MPH
range. Min RH values will also be a bit higher thanks to cooler
temperatures. Nevertheless, the combination of wind and RH values
will still be enough to create locally critical conditions. No
fire headlines will be issued on this shift as it does not appear
a large enough area in each zone will consistently meet criteria.

SATURDAY...CRITICAL...Winds increase again for Saturday with
speeds almost as high as today, topping out 25 to 30 MPH. Min RH
values will drop into the lower and mid teens in the lowlands.
Thus, a fire weather watch is in effect for zones 111, 112, and
Texas 055 and 056. Portions of zone 111 will see a bit higher min
RH values, but given RFTI wind values of 4, any over-forecasting
of RH will lead to more widespread critical conditions.

REST OF PERIOD...LOW TO ELEVATED...Warmer and drier conditions
return Sunday and especially Monday onward. Min RH values will
drop into the teens Sunday afternoon and single-digits Monday
afterward. Wind is not expected to be a concern, however, as
afternoon speeds top out 10 to 15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  86  56  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            84  49  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               83  49  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               81  45  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               58  33  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    77  47  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              67  41  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   79  45  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                75  44  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       83  52  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                88  48  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             90  50  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               79  48  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   88  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             81  48  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           82  53  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            79  44  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    80  45  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 80  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                80  47  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  71  40  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                68  38  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 68  36  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  68  38  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                74  41  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                77  42  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             67  36  67  37 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                   72  38  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    73  42  74  45 /   0   0   0  10
Mule Creek               68  41  69  42 /   0   0   0  10
Faywood                  71  41  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   75  43  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  76  44  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           76  44  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               70  43  70  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for TXZ055-056.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for NMZ111-112.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt